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Central PA - February 2013

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

I can see a fight over something like set jealousy or who's doppler 9,000 is "moar powerful" or whatever. Maybe your noon weathergirl is hotter or your picture of "sunshine" has cooler sunglasses than the other.

 

I now want this fight...

 

Set it up. You bring the chains, I'll bring the swords. We'll do this Anchorman style. 

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Being able to correctly depict what is going on in the crazy atmosphere and present it so that the "Average Joe" can understand it is a science in itself! Good to see you on here, man. Though we are from competing stations in the SQV, I think it's important that we keep the dialogue open. For this system, I would tend to agree with your call of lower amounts than what CTP is showing. I still think it's advisory level for most of our viewing area, but exactly how much QPF can go as snow is the main question.

 

I was the marketing communications manager at AccuWeather for three years, I hear you on trying to present to the public. I used to write weather press releases.

 

You'd be surprised. A lot of TV mets completely shut down any communication once it's realized that they are talking to another TV met in the same market. It's like we'd be spreading top secret weather info or something along those lines. It's completely ludicrous, but it happens. 

We had two mets from WTAJ and WJAC on here and they co-existed nicely. But I understand what you are saying. 

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Instead of fighting each other, we need to march this fight to NYC/Long Island to seize the snow from some of those ungrateful b--tards! (12z NAM does it again)

 

Who's with me?

We can go guerrilla. Worked in the Revolutionary War when a small force fought a big army. It would work in this case, too, probably even better. The British Army was hella lot smarter than a lot of the posters in the NYC forum. 

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Porsche

Porsche

Posted
Posted

It's Matt Moore, but thanks! The recent trend is disheartening, but there can be shifts late in the game to the north as well. HPC goes with a GFS/Ukie blend which painted a 1-4" type snow across the region.

Storm Recap (and rant):

Yesterday's snowstorm did not play out the way that many meteorologists, myself included, thought that it would for our area. Forecasts were as high as 2-6" across the region, with higher amounts farther to the northeast. Fortunately for many people (and unfortunately for meteorologists), this did not happen. In fact, here in the Susquehanna Valley, many people received NO snow accumulations, and those that did received no more than a light inch or two. 

The fact of the matter is, this storm was never forecasted to be "major" for us. It was always and had always been New England's storm. For us to receive our forecasted amounts of snow, the pieces of the puzzle had to have come perfectly together -- and it appeared for a time that it was going to do just that. However, the scenario played out slightly different than what was expected. 

How close was it? 

Very close. Allentown and Somerton (near Philly) both reported just under 5" of snow and there were many numbers near these locations with similar numbers. Shift these snows about 50 miles to the west, and the forecast would have verified for us in the Valley. This was one of those storms that was a nail-biter down to the very end, and in the end a distance of less than 100 miles was the difference between verification and failure.

To the people sending nasty e-mails, Facebook comments, and other various bashing messages - is that really necessary? The forecast may not have been perfect, but did it inconvenience you to the point where your life is ruined permanently? Not likely. 

Meteorology is, and always will be, an imperfect science. If I could get the forecast right 100% of the time I would be working for the government making a million dollars per year. The atmosphere is amazing, intricate, and extraordinarily complicated. The fact that we were able to forecast Hurricane Sandy making a landfall in New Jersey a WEEK in advance and predict this blizzard would be historic for parts of New England with enough time to warn and prepare the public is nothing short of incredible. It's a true testament to how far we have come with technology, as a society, and as a field in science.

In the end, you must know that meteorologists and forecasters alike hate being "wrong". It's happening less and less as the years go on, but it can and will still happen for as long as I'm living on this planet. We take great pride in our work and dedicate our lives to the science with the knowledge that we will take the full brunt of the firestorm of public opinion when mother nature throws a curveball. We live and learn from these events, and become better at forecasting the weather as a result.

Oh, and the adage "you can be wrong and still get paid" is getting pretty old. Let's work on that together.

End rant.

 

Welcome Matt,, I'm here in Lancaster, and glad you joined the board!!!  Very well stated above, hope you don't mind me posting it :).

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

Back to the weather!

 

Newest NAM comes in more amped and a bit more juicy as well...brings more moderate precip farther to the north. 

 

post-5336-0-83768100-1360679585_thumb.pn

 

Twisterdata forecast soundings for a grid point just south of MDT show rain at the onset in the late afternoon (21z)

 

post-5336-0-67956500-1360679769_thumb.pn

 

But then going to a wet snow by 7pm (probably earlier west of MDT)

 

post-5336-0-65219300-1360679826_thumb.pn

 

And staying all snow through the heaviest falling precip between 7p-12a

 

post-5336-0-31353900-1360679922_thumb.pn

 

 

Based off of the low-res images off of the NCEP site, I would guess maybe .10-.15 QPF is wasted to rain. The rest looks to be snow. Solid 2-5" south of the turnpike...1-3" north of the TP and south of I-80 on this run of the NAM. 

 

I will say I'm not confident in this run. I would like to see the GFS fall in line in terms of QPF amounts before I am more convinced.

 

 

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

Storm Recap (and rant):

Yesterday's snowstorm did not play out the way that many meteorologists, myself included, thought that it would for our area. Forecasts were as high as 2-6" across the region, with higher amounts farther to the northeast. Fortunately for many people (and unfortunately for meteorologists), this did not happen. In fact, here in the Susquehanna Valley, many people received NO snow accumulations, and those that did received no more than a light inch or two. 

The fact of the matter is, this storm was never forecasted to be "major" for us. It was always and had always been New England's storm. For us to receive our forecasted amounts of snow, the pieces of the puzzle had to have come perfectly together -- and it appeared for a time that it was going to do just that. However, the scenario played out slightly different than what was expected. 

How close was it? 

Very close. Allentown and Somerton (near Philly) both reported just under 5" of snow and there were many numbers near these locations with similar numbers. Shift these snows about 50 miles to the west, and the forecast would have verified for us in the Valley. This was one of those storms that was a nail-biter down to the very end, and in the end a distance of less than 100 miles was the difference between verification and failure.

To the people sending nasty e-mails, Facebook comments, and other various bashing messages - is that really necessary? The forecast may not have been perfect, but did it inconvenience you to the point where your life is ruined permanently? Not likely. 

Meteorology is, and always will be, an imperfect science. If I could get the forecast right 100% of the time I would be working for the government making a million dollars per year. The atmosphere is amazing, intricate, and extraordinarily complicated. The fact that we were able to forecast Hurricane Sandy making a landfall in New Jersey a WEEK in advance and predict this blizzard would be historic for parts of New England with enough time to warn and prepare the public is nothing short of incredible. It's a true testament to how far we have come with technology, as a society, and as a field in science.

In the end, you must know that meteorologists and forecasters alike hate being "wrong". It's happening less and less as the years go on, but it can and will still happen for as long as I'm living on this planet. We take great pride in our work and dedicate our lives to the science with the knowledge that we will take the full brunt of the firestorm of public opinion when mother nature throws a curveball. We live and learn from these events, and become better at forecasting the weather as a result.

Oh, and the adage "you can be wrong and still get paid" is getting pretty old. Let's work on that together.

End rant.

 

Welcome Matt,, I'm here in Lancaster, and glad you joined the board!!!  Very well stated above, hope you don't mind me posting it :).

 

Thanks for the kind words! Didn't know anyone here was a fan of my page, cool stuff and thanks for posting!

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

Hey Matt, welcome to the CPA thread.  You do a great job.  I have a lot of respect for your team at WGAL.  Dr. Scala is incredibly knowledgable- he was the hardest professor I ever had in college.

 

And also welcome to Jeff!

 

Thanks ScummyRatGuy...if that IS your real name...we work very hard every day. Dr. Scala is that man! Truly one of the nicest guys I know -- but I have heard horror stories about him as a professor and how hard he was! Go figure, he's a Doc.

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Cashtown_Coop

Cashtown_Coop

Posted
Posted

Central PA is the best sub-forum..respectful and knowledgeable folks all around.  I'm cautiously optimistic for eastern Adams and southern York/Lancaster counties to maybe pop 4" of snow tomorrow.  Just seems like in these marginal event they do alright.

elevation on south mountain in western adams always helps out as well.(1500' to 2000')  I'm guessing highest amount will be out my way being we would change over first

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

Keep in mind the NAM is notorious for having a NW and heavy QPF bias. Remember the blizzard last Friday for New England? NAM put out 2-6" for the eastern half of the SQV and a lot of folks got burned on it...including myself. If I had to make a call right now, without seeing the 12z GFS, I would say...

 

Coating-2" south of I-80 to Turnpike

1-3" Turnpike to Route 30

2-4" Route 30 to Mason Dixon Line (with a SW-NE tilt)

Maybe a 5" amount in there east of the river, near the Mason-Dixon line, and at high elevation....so not many locations, HA.

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

welcome to all our new members.  I just saw yesterday that fox43 will be starting their morning news at 4am.  Joe, what time do you start work?

 

It's Matt Moore, not Joe, sorry to disappoint  :(

 

But I've worked that shift numerous times and it starts at 430a and goes to 7a with the show then till 9am with the live cut-ins for the Today show. We have to report for that shift at about 1230-1am.

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Cashtown_Coop

Cashtown_Coop

Posted
Posted

Keep in mind the NAM is notorious for having a NW and heavy QPF bias. Remember the blizzard last Friday for New England? NAM put out 2-6" for the eastern half of the SQV and a lot of folks got burned on it...including myself. If I had to make a call right now, without seeing the 12z GFS, I would say...

 

Coating-2" south of I-80 to Turnpike

1-3" Turnpike to Route 30

2-4" Route 30 to Mason Dixon Line (with a SW-NE tilt)

Maybe a 5" amount in there east of the river, near the Mason-Dixon line, and at high elevation....so not many locations, HA.

that sounds spot on to me. I'm excitied to have a met down this way!

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Keep in mind the NAM is notorious for having a NW and heavy QPF bias. Remember the blizzard last Friday for New England? NAM put out 2-6" for the eastern half of the SQV and a lot of folks got burned on it...including myself. If I had to make a call right now, without seeing the 12z GFS, I would say...

 

Coating-2" south of I-80 to Turnpike

1-3" Turnpike to Route 30

2-4" Route 30 to Mason Dixon Line (with a SW-NE tilt)

Maybe a 5" amount in there east of the river, near the Mason-Dixon line, and at high elevation....so not many locations, HA.

Very good call, IMO.  This reminds me a bit of the October snowfall from 2011 when it looks marginal to start and temps were ~50 degrees the day before.

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snowalot

snowalot

Posted
Posted

By the way, I do find it interesting how much people take to heart when a forecast goes wrong or if the models don't show a particular behavior. I think your post Matt was excellent and truly people need to realize that you guys and gals only review models (which themselves are imperfect) and interpret the data. That is why I find weather so fascinating, because it is something we can't control. And although we have models that try to interpret all those moving parts that make up our atmosphere, they are only models and the weather will do what the weather will do. It does not always act in a predictable manner, but if it did, what would be fascinating about it?

 

Kudos to the efforts of all the weather forecasters out there. :)

 

And now back to our original programming - so being in Litiz just north of Lancaster, I would be most happy with a 2-4 inch event at this pt. I would LOVE to see a monster storm and I would agree that this weekend would be such a waste of great potential if nothing materializes, but we can always hope.

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AllWeather

AllWeather

Posted
Posted

New GFS comes in farther N and juicier...much like the NAM did (but less QPF, which makes more sense)...more in line with my current thinking as of now. Here's the surface reflection as of 03z...

 

post-5336-0-76209200-1360683966_thumb.pn

 

And total precip after the storm has moved out...

 

post-5336-0-76867100-1360683888_thumb.pn

 

This was a good move by the GFS if you like snow. Still waiting on the forecast soundings from twisterdata to see when the changeover to snow occurs

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