north pgh Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So UNV went from 18z: NAM: 2-4" GFS: 3-6" 00z: NAM: T GFS: 1-3" F**k this. The detour is in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Some members are Monsters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The detour is in full effect. stop teasing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So UNV went from 18z: NAM: 2-4" GFS: 3-6" 00z: NAM: T GFS: 1-3" F**k this. Very warm at the surface south of the Mason Dixon line. Not too many do real well on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Eh MDT is nearly .4 and all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Eh MDT is nearly .4 and all snow. GFS says .65 all snow for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If South-Central PA (Bedford, Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Franklin and Adams) and the LSV could cash in on this, then everybody will be able to say they got "theirs". I think we should hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS says .65 all snow for MDTI underestimated, thanks for the correction.That's a solid 6" storm. Do they hoist watches in the morning update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 They can go straight to a warning, right? I'd imagine this close out they would just wait until their usual posting time of 2:11 PM to hoist a Warning if it's warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This was never really a north of I-80 storm so, not sure why anyone up there got their hopes up. This storm is really for the counties on the MD line and the counties just north of those. 2-4" seems to be reasonable with maybe 4-6" in some locations especially SC and SE. I don't think this is a warning snow. Solid 3-6" ADV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I guess that's right. I am not sold though on a warning level snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I underestimated, thanks for the correction. That's a solid 6" storm. Do they hoist watches in the morning update? I would think so, as long as model guidance doesn't back off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I underestimated, thanks for the correction. That's a solid 6" storm. Do they hoist watches in the morning update? They might as it would be getting within 36 hours by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Solid 3-6" ADV. Given the criteria of "potential for more than 6 inches in 12 hours" I wouldn't be surprised if they just levied warnings anyway. It seems, to me at least that 3-6 events usually get "warning" whereas 2-4/3-5 get advisories. It's odd that such a gradient in criteria would exist but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I hope the models start firing off more bombs for our potential PD3 storm timeframe, that'd be one helluva wasted amplification of the pattern. It was right around this point in time (5-6 days out) when the Euro suddenly went phased nor'easter and stuck with it last week. I just checked, very top of page 4 in here I posted about the Feb 3rd 0z Euro having the nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Take a look at the GFS ensemble mean for the PDIII time period. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's been 20 years since the Superstorm, right? We're due... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Take a look at the GFS ensemble mean for the PDIII time period. Wow Holy crap, there must be some nuclear members in that ensemble mean. Models have been beating around the bush the last few days with going for an all out big one like what we saw on Mon mornings 6z GFS. Even on runs that didn't have a big storm, it's had "the look". I'm not an expert in trying to identify..nor do I like throwing the term out since it hardly ever happens and I don't like whipping up weenie frenzies.. but it seems there's triple phase potential if the stars align. Suffice to say, there's very likely to be a big storm from this major digging trough. But the big question is will the progression of the pattern slow enough to allow this to happen on the East Coast.. or will this end up the storm that should've been named Nemo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When is the last time we saw that on the GFS mean at this time period coming into an expected "good" period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is from psuhoffman over on the mid-Atlantic forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro big whiff wed night. I don't even know what to think anymore. Probably another waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Holy... ****... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Holy... ****... now that would make me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 New HPC stuff, they mentioned in their model diagnostic disco that their preference for the Wed/Thur system continues to be the GFS/UKMET. probs of >2" (I'd say probs greater than 50% is where we're looking at possible advisory placement attm, although we'll most likely have at least another full model cycle until it's time for those products) probs of >6": I'd look here for an idea on potential watch placement.. i'd say in the >10% region... but I don't think there will be enough confidence from CTP on throwing up a watch first thing this morning as QPF with the best models are still in that borderline range. They'll probably wait for 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Holy... ****... The 0z version of P001 is still the most jacked up with pretty much a foot plus for everyone. Several ensemble members with deep storms with a few having good CPA hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 New CTP short term and opening map regarding our midweek event, I'd say their take looks good at this time: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SFC HIGH OVER EAST CENTRAL PA WILL RETREAT NEWD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF OF THE NC COAST AND OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE TO ASCERTAIN THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH 00Z GEFS EXAMINATION SHOWS A REASONABLE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CUT DOWN ON ACCUMS AND IF MEAN QPF WEREN`T A LIMITING FACTOR TO RULE OUT A WATCH AT THIS TIME...MARGINAL PBL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE...THUS NO WATCHS AT THIS TIME. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AT HAND...PRODUCING A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL WED AFTN AND NIGHT. NCEP WWD GRAPHICS DEPICT A 3-6 INCH STRIPE OVER MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHICH I THINK IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE GIVEN THE MELTING EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE ONSET. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN/...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT NIGHT. 00Z GFS AND NAM12 IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF 0.25" QPF CONTOUR...FROM KJST TO KAOO EASTWARD TO KMDT. AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE UP TO .5" W.E. AND WILL AGAIN DEAL WITH MELTING FROM MARGINALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC TEMPS. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS EVENT WOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 OK, don't take this the wrong way as this is pretty much a tongue-in-cheek post and I'd still get what looks like 15+ inches, but I have to laugh at the fact that Schuylkill County is almost always modelled to be on the gradient be it north, south, east, or west...and NOT in the bullseye. Holy... ****... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumpers61 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hey all! Happy to be part of the board if you'll have me! Looking at latest 06Z suite for Wed night. I worry that we may be too warm to start with rain which may hold down the accumulations later in the evening. Looks like 1-2" with maybe a narrow in the 3" inch range. I like the idea of the NWS map too. Not sure how much rain will play a role during the start. Cant wait to see the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hey all! Happy to be part of the board if you'll have me! Looking at latest 06Z suite for Wed night. I worry that we may be too warm to start with rain which may hold down the accumulations later in the evening. Looks like 1-2" with maybe a narrow in the 3" inch range. I like the idea of the NWS map too. Not sure how much rain will play a role during the start. Cant wait to see the 12Z runs. Greetings! I can see elevation being a big player in this event, similar to the October event two years ago. Wouldn't be surprised to see places like southern York and Lancaster counties near the buck and Glen Rock win out with 3" - 5" of snow. You a TV met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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