canderson Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We have tickets to Newsies in NY Saturday; I'd rather not have a storm that day. But a 3-6" VD storm would be greatly appreciated, Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My thoughts on mid-week snow. Also trip was epic. http://www.hwpcwx.org/2013/02/valentines-day-surprise.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z disagrees strongly with 6z on second storm lol...back to reality. Huh? The GFS and UKIE look pretty good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Welcome back, Zach!!! Glad you made it back safe and sound. It must have been one heck of a storm to enjoy up there. Nice pix for sure. Looks like we're about to go into an incredible next 2 weeks down here with storm after storm. Did anyone notice that the 06z gfs takes the PDIII storm all the way down to 960mb and it isn't even at the benchmark yet? You can just tell that the atmosphere is primed for something big. It doesn't matter that the 12z reduced it. It just phased the storm a bit later. It still blows up offshore and even here we manage to pull off 6 to 10" event. It's gonna be a long week, methinks. Get ready everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Huh? The GFS and UKIE look pretty good to me... Remember he lives in NE PA. Last run smashed him this run gives him light snow. SC and SE still do well. One run no biggie. GGEM was way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Zak, l loved all your pics on FB. Who ended up going, just you and your Mom? As always, i can't see you map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z disagrees strongly with 6z on second storm lol...back to reality. You're doing it again........................................."disagrees STRONGLY"??? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Zak, l loved all your pics on FB. Who ended up going, just you and your Mom? As always, i can't see you map. Ya me and my mom. Was a fun time. I didn't post a map, just pictures and a link to our page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ya me and my mom. Was a fun time. I didn't post a map, just pictures and a link to our page. yeah i saw that now, i went to the site on my iphone. What did your mom think of the experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yeah i saw that now, i went to the site on my iphone. What did your mom think of the experience? She liked it. She told me it better snow a lot. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z disagrees strongly with 6z on second storm lol...back to reality. This is exactly the kind of post Jamie was lecturing you about earlier (Saturday I believe)... posts like this without any explanation or reasoning to support your thoughts really take away from the good commentary you do have Take a look at this link http://txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm Compare what happens at 500mb from 0z run, 6z run, and 12z... The system currently moving over the Great Lakes that provided the freezing rain/rain this morning will move to the north and east over the course of the remainder of the week... at 0z it got to a point where it became nearly stationary and then nearly disappeared... at 6z this same system positions itself and remains relevant to provide some blocking/ridging ahead of the weekend system which in turn helps amplify the trough to give us a good hit... this is what you will see referred to as a 50/50 low The cold air over east central canada is also further north on 6z and 12z than it had been with 0z and previous when showing no storm... this kept the system more suppressed and didnt allow the trough to amplify and turn negative... with 6z it has less interaction with the shortwave for the weekend even than 12z hence the 6z run pulling further west It is things like this to keep an eye on but there is not anything strongly different between 6 and 12z... remember too that 6z does not have as much new data input into the run as 0z and 12z does so that is why 0z and 12z are often relied on moreso than 6z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 She liked it. She told me it better snow a lot. lol Amazing stuff, thanks for posting the photos and videos you did. Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great job Zak on whole event .Sorry trying to do well...some well known posters in PIT forum said there were major diff. My apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is exactly the kind of post Jamie was lecturing you about earlier (Saturday I believe)... posts like this without any explanation or reasoning to support your thoughts really take away from the good commentary you do have Take a look at this link http://txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm Compare what happens at 500mb from 0z run, 6z run, and 12z... The system currently moving over the Great Lakes that provided the freezing rain/rain this morning will move to the north and east over the course of the remainder of the week... at 0z it got to a point where it became nearly stationary and then nearly disappeared... at 6z this same system positions itself and remains relevant to provide some blocking/ridging ahead of the weekend system which in turn helps amplify the trough to give us a good hit... this is what you will see referred to as a 50/50 low The cold air over east central canada is also further north on 6z and 12z than it had been with 0z and previous when showing no storm... this kept the system more suppressed and didnt allow the trough to amplify and turn negative... with 6z it has less interaction with the shortwave for the weekend even than 12z hence the 6z run pulling further west It is things like this to keep an eye on but there is not anything strongly different between 6 and 12z... remember too that 6z does not have as much new data input into the run as 0z and 12z does so that is why 0z and 12z are often relied on moreso than 6z and 18z It's cool....he does actually have a point here, lol. Good analysis, btw. The thing I think will be clear going forward is the models will flip around a bit. Not going to get too pumped or upset either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Did anyone have much ice issues this am? i had a little ice on the driveway, but it must have warmed up pretty quickly as it was 35 at 630. The roads in and arond harrisburg area were basically trouble free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great job Zak on whole event .Sorry trying to do well...some well known posters in PIT forum said there were major diff. My apologies ah ok well for PIT the major difference to them is that with 12z being a little east they lose a lot of precip compared to 6z... overall pattern wise it is not a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z Euro is further north at 60hr (0z on the 14th) than 72hr of 0z, pushing the precip into southeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has less than a tenth for places like IPT and UNV and about .1-.2 for AOO/MDT/LNS. Philly and DC are 0.4ish. Baby steps I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great job Zak on whole event .Sorry trying to do well...some well known posters in PIT forum said there were major diff. My apologies Sometimes mouth does this <<<<<<<<<...... When it should do this.--------------- Just learn to listen / read until you understand. That's what I did for some time until I learned enough to chirp once in a while. You will get much less grief and people will actually appreciate insight. We all are learning here....just at different levels. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Btw. Nice to see you back Zac. Nice job this weekend. Maybe next weekend the home team gets to dance in the streets. Stick around and throw your hat back in the ring. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Loving the somewhat milder air today in Danville....making walks between schools much much more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great overview from Eric Horst at my alma mater http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Don't tell the wife, but I'm (obviously) rooting for snow on VD. Dinner plans can wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yea zak, I second snownut...stick around, I promise I will keep my lips zipped haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great overview from Eric Horst at my alma mater http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Don't tell the wife, but I'm (obviously) rooting for snow on VD. Dinner plans can wait. You guys might have a shot with this, particularly I-80 south. Warm advection snows with these type of systems typically extend pretty far away from the center, and there's no huge confluence zone to keep it dry. A possible analog that stands out to me is 12/5/02 or even 2/7/03. This also seems like one that will keep trending north-so you guys should watch it IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The winter of 1772 appears to have been one of the longest and most brutal stretches in American history. Holy shaaaaat. That decade seemed to be epic. One of my favorite local history stories for my hometown of York PA was how George Washington nearly got hypothermia in 1778 during an epic blizzard. He was supposed to stay in this church parish in York, and the caretaker refused to let him in because he didn't believe he was Washington and thought he was a British spy (they had Continential Congress documents hidden in the church). I mean, it's funny when you think about it. You guys might have a shot with this, particularly I-80 south. Warm advection snows with these type of systems typically extend pretty far away from the center, and there's no huge confluence zone to keep it dry. A possible analog that stands out to me is 12/5/02 or even 2/7/03. This also seems like one that will keep trending north-so you guys should watch it IMO. Holy crap, I wondered about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You guys might have a shot with this, particularly I-80 south. Warm advection snows with these type of systems typically extend pretty far away from the center, and there's no huge confluence zone to keep it dry. A possible analog that stands out to me is 12/5/02 or even 2/7/03. This also seems like one that will keep trending north-so you guys should watch it IMO. MDT - 6.5" 12/5/02 and 5.3" 2/7/03 FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yea zak, I second snownut...stick around, I promise I will keep my lips zipped haha no worries, man. Who knows how this week will play out right now. Keeping an even keel on it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 MDT - 6.5" 12/5/02 and 5.3" 2/7/03 FYI UNV got thumped good on 12/5/02. My first full week in this area. Most thought we would get 1-3, we got 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UNV got thumped good on 12/5/02. My first full week in this area. Most thought we would get 1-3, we got 8. I still remember that date. Pretty sure we got an even bigger event the next year on 12/5/03? About a foot if I recall. Hoping for the best for VDAY! Trends seem to be in our favor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 UNV got thumped good on 12/5/02. My first full week in this area. Most thought we would get 1-3, we got 8. Let's do that again then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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