Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ya dews are down to 9 here...30.3 temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM...give up. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM...give up. Please. Lol gotta admire NAM's spirit saying f you.. C-PA to SNE is gettin a decent snowstorm. Makin the Euro look like the NOGAPs in comparison with it's sheared progressive solution. Speaking of which, that was on par with what the 12z GFS had today gettin precip into southern PA at least. Interesting battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM...give up. Please. LOL Well, at least one model is still giving us some hope for more than just a coating. Only problem is it looks a tad warm at the surface, but could easily cool down after precip starts. Timing looks good with it starting after 7pm. I'm still hoping. My sisters back in north jersey got about a foot each. I'm jealous. We have to get at least one event of 6"+ before winter ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Oh Boy....0Z gfs says, "nam, I like your solution, and I'm changing my mind....snow to s-c pa!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^ lol, and another NYC snowstorm, like they need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 zr or sleet now in HBG already. Earlier than I expected. GFS is a nice hit, looks like 6-10" for the LSV. GGEM moved 250 miles north and joined the nam, GFS, ukie, etc. if euro moves north we might have something to really track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'll take an 0z NAM/GFS compromise myself... maybe the Euros still hungover from it's big win with the blizzard. Should note that the operational GFS/NAM haven't been out on their own wrt to their respective ensembles on this storm.. as a half decent amount of GEFS/SREF members have been supportive of snow into CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Euro wasn't exactly gangbusters with the past few systems, though the others were so awful last weekend it looked like a fortune teller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Mag, wouldn't a compromise screw AOO-UNV-IPT corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Mag, wouldn't a compromise screw AOO-UNV-IPT corridor? As in compromise that means I'll take the NAMs precip shield with the GFS's slightly colder and further southeast track haha. It's doable, GFS has the low in a pretty nice spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GEFS mean (waiting for the individual members plots to see what we got on that level) 0z GGEM made a pretty big shift northward from 12z, from its Euro flatness to skirting southern PA with some light snow. UKMET nearby with light snow into PA. New European sounded slightly better but still generally a miss even for DC. Pretty decent moves on the models tonight other than the Euro. As such, the troll potential is very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 lol nam is such a bad model....but a heck of a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 lol nam is such a bad model....but a heck of a troll. The mods need to ban the NAM for trolling. Whatta d!ick. The 06 GFS brought back the weekend storm. Those guys talking about how nutty the models would be this month were spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 To be fair, the NAM seems to have some predictable biases (over amplification of storms and extending QPF boundaries too far west on coastals) but some times it gets criticized for the extreme amount of QPF it shows when it ends up pretty close...overall it did much better than the GFS (I think) in New England with the recent blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ha, nice. Don Sutherland posted a while ago about some crazy 1770s blizzard in Boston that sounded even crazier than this one. http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf first off this is just an unreal document if you are into weather and history... second check out the part about the 1770s - specifically pages 575 and 577 discuss Boston snow in 1770s Interesting to read how snow/hurricanes/etc were documented back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf first off this is just an unreal document if you are into weather and history... second check out the part about the 1770s - specifically pages 575 and 577 discuss Boston snow in 1770s Interesting to read how snow/hurricanes/etc were documented back then That's very cool, thanks for sharing. One thing I learned is how often the River Thames used to flood. How did London survive all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z NAM officially gives in. NYC is buried and maybe 1-3" at best for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lsv does alright...us not so much. But lsv needs a solid 3 to 5er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Current 12z runs of NAM/GFS give south central PA nice 4-8" swath of snow. Let's hope it holds on the North trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Saussy and canderson...gfs says happy valentines day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah not a bad run at all for those south of 80 and east of 99, I'd take .25" liquid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Current 12z runs of NAM/GFS give south central PA nice 4-8" swath of snow. Let's hope it holds on the North trends. Saussy and canderson...gfs says happy valentines day lol. Yeah not a bad run at all for those south of 80 and east of 99, I'd take .25" liquid lol Hey now...i like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Current 12z runs of NAM/GFS give south central PA nice 4-8" swath of snow. Let's hope it holds on the North trends. Need to get the non-American models on board now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Need to get the non-American models on board now. agreed Euro was south on 0z. lets hope it adjust north on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The winter of 1772 appears to have been one of the longest and most brutal stretches in American history. Holy shaaaaat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 To be fair, the NAM seems to have some predictable biases (over amplification of storms and extending QPF boundaries too far west on coastals) but some times it gets criticized for the extreme amount of QPF it shows when it ends up pretty close...overall it did much better than the GFS (I think) in New England with the recent blizzard. I was thinking the same thing. It wasn't correct verbatim, but it did predict the banding that led to the extreme snowfall amounts, first over NY NY, then over LI. There's a thread in the NE forum that discusses model performance last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 agreed Euro was south on 0z. lets hope it adjust north on 12z. No...0z was coming north albeit less than the other models..but it did follow the trend. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol at this point its as if this subforum is a team...and this thing needs to dump 6 or more in lsv so CPA is high total winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z disagrees strongly with 6z on second storm lol...back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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