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Central PA - February 2013


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All I could think of when I saw Revere -

"The blizzard is coming! The blizzard is coming! One foot if by land, two feet if by sea!"

 

Funny you mention the Revere. I posted a wunderblog on Thursday night about the storm and came up with this...

 

4. Okay, the thought just popped in my head, and you know what? The hell with it: Can you imagine Paul Revere trying to make a ride in this storm? The snow's up to his stupid horse's stomach (Because he was too stupid to get a regular horse, he's riding a pony. And only because there were no German Shepards to rent.) And the horse is hopping and over-exerting itself all-the-while thinking it's a fancy horse because it's hopping. After about an hour and only a half-mile traveled, the horse craps out and Revere is screwed. There are no lights, and to this day, people in New England are speaking a different and even worse version of the language they're trying to speak on a daily basis. Actually, this may have been the best-case scenario?

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I've noticed that the early NAM take, since it is just starting to get into range (albeit lol range) has been bringing in the V-day system way high.  A bit slower and much further north than even the GFS. Also has a more robust southern stream shortwave, with a more significant closed 5360m 500 low at 84 vs the GFS open 5480m. 

 

New 12z NAM:

post-1507-0-24863800-1360508715_thumb.pn

 

6z GFS:

post-1507-0-90114500-1360509424_thumb.pn

 

I think there's reasonable chance this ends up coming further north this week as we won't have a driving cold air mass behind tomorrows system really. Looks like a more seasonable mid-Feb week coming up, so I could see the boundary this storm runs on being a bit north. For now though it would be really great if we could convince the Euro to at least get near where the GFS currently is. 

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I've noticed that the early NAM take, since it is just starting to get into range (albeit lol range) has been bringing in the V-day system way high.  A bit slower and much further north than even the GFS. Also has a more robust southern stream shortwave, with a more significant closed 5360m 500 low at 84 vs the GFS open 5480m. 

 

New 12z NAM:

attachicon.gifnam_rapid-apcpsfc--conus-84-A-000.png

 

6z GFS:

attachicon.gifgfs-apcpsfc--conus-81-A-000.png

 

I think there's reasonable chance this ends up coming further north this week as we won't have a driving cold air mass behind tomorrows system really. Looks like a more seasonable mid-Feb week coming up, so I could see the boundary this storm runs on being a bit north. For now though it would be really great if we could convince the Euro to at least get near where the GFS currently is. 

Euro seemed a little better. The storm next weekend, based on what I read in the Philly subforum, has a favorable setup but nothing on models as yet.

 

Also, Feb 21-early March is looking warm now.

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12z GFS looks about the same generally, skirts southern PA with a light snowfall. There aren't any winners really, just because it grazes us with the best precip doesn't mean folks further south are getting thumped with snow. Aside from the Apps, P-types are all rain for the most part south of the Mason-Dixon. 

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Im big into that too...have you ever hit up susquehanna around Lock Haven man...littered with smallmouths.

its the same here..my biggest last yr was 19.5" and my uncle caught a 21" smallmouth.

a smallmouth over 20" is a very nice fish (atleast around here anyway)

 

sorry for the OT posts... i love weather but fishing is my weakness (i cant say no)

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Im big into that too...have you ever hit up susquehanna around Lock Haven man...littered with smallmouths.

Yes, although right around here I don't like smallmouth fishing as much as around Pittsburgh and when I lived in York.

 

its the same here..my biggest last yr was 19.5" and my uncle caught a 21" smallmouth.

a smallmouth over 20" is a very nice fish (atleast around here anyway)

 

sorry for the OT posts... i love weather but fishing is my weakness (i cant say no)

 

Where?

Wow...nice. I have been out ice fishing a couple of times bit it just doesnt cut it LOL.

Ice fishing bores the crap out of me. I gotta move while fishing.

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Im big into that too...have you ever hit up susquehanna around Lock Haven man...littered with smallmouths.

There is big smallmouths below the damm. Friend of mine has been catching 5 pounders just walking along the banks. He is on the pro bass circuit. Said that it kept him sharp in the off season.

Pine Creek has some great fishing also.

My biggest large mouth to date, local lake 22 1/2" 7.2 lbs

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Hmm, coming from someone who knows next to nothing about fish, eating crappie sounds awful! 

 

Briefly bringing it back to weather: looks like the FZRA threat at least here in State College is slim to none seeing how we are at 36 with overcast already. Even the 18z NAM has us at 29 right now! Buuust...

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Hmm, coming from someone who knows next to nothing about fish, eating crappie sounds awful! 

 

Briefly bringing it back to weather: looks like the FZRA threat at least here in State College is slim to none seeing how we are at 36 with overcast already. Even the 18z NAM has us at 29 right now! Buuust...

 

Yea i'm thinking with the pretty low dewpoints we'll cool to right around freezing at the onset of precip. Surface wet-bulbs on mesoanalysis are solidly below freezing as well.  At least we won't be starting from the low-mid 20s or something like that, although we got quite cold last night (down to 9ºF here). Hopefully we can get away without too many issues on surfaces that have been more heavily treated. I'm sure there will be the usual slippery spots on campus first thing in the morning. 

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Yea i'm thinking with the pretty low dewpoints we'll cool to right around freezing at the onset of precip. Surface wet-bulbs on mesoanalysis are solidly below freezing as well.  At least we won't be starting from the low-mid 20s or something like that, although we got quite cold last night (down to 9ºF here). Hopefully we can get away without too many issues on surfaces that have been more heavily treated. I'm sure there will be the usual slippery spots on campus first thing in the morning. 

31 here.

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Anyway, there's a whiner thread, my idea to try to find middle ground here so those who want to freak out have a place to do so and we can talk about storm threats without people complaining that the weather hates them.

 

Back to real weather talk, this is a pretty remarkable public info statement: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=public

 

I wonder if Eastern made it back to PA yet haha, I checked NWS Albany's statement on the storm and Torrington, CT where he was staying ended up with 28". Prolly had the time of his life in that CT death band that formed. 

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Wow, the UNV airport dropped from 36 to 28 between 7:54 and 8:54?! That's remarkable considering the overcast and SSW winds, not to mention a dropping dewpoint! 

 

Walker is still at 37/20, but wetbulbs are below freezing even here. So I may have to take back my other post about a bust on the ice event!

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