Jmister Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The ice situation Monday morning is becoming more pronounced on the NAM and especially GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Per Martin in PHL thread: Where the NAM had 13" snow (and 3+" QPF) the GFS has 3" snow (and less than 1" QPF). I think reality is gonna lie some where between these extremes in the regions that see the worst of this storm. The NAM puts out some pretty obscene QPF numbers that probably should be cut in half, or at least a third... but I wouldn't necessarily apply that outside of the ground zero regions. I mean if you cut the precip in half back in our area you'd end up with what the GFS had. It's a toss up which one of these ends up being right back like where me and Jamie are, but I side more with the NAM with what it has in that York-MDT-IPT corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 anyone kno qpf outputs for gfs? for MDT it is about half of NAM... then I closed the window because I am not trusting the GFS right now... GFS struggles with handling phasing... often why euro locks in on an event days out while GFS comes and goes as it pleases... so with phasing appearing to be one factor causing a difference in GFS vs NAM and EURO I am leaning away from GFS but not as drastic as NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What time is the Euro? 12:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol.felt like we had some momentum for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any word of the 00z GFS for Valentines Day storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any word of the 00z GFS for Valentines Day storm yet? Still rolling in, but looks to be suppressed SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is OTS on 2/14...lol, just kill me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is OTS on 2/14...lol, just kill me now. If it is poorly handling the event in the near future (tomorrow) that is going to impact everything that happens downstream from there... not too worried about it yet but would be nice to see euro hint at something being worth watching as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If it is poorly handling the event in the near future (tomorrow) that is going to impact everything that happens downstream from there... not too worried about it yet but would be nice to see euro hint at something being worth watching as well Until the Euros 0z run last night both of those models had this system in some fashion for a couple runs, either a coastal or a miller B (or truncated miller B fail to the lower lakes). I'm content to keep that on the back burner for now, still a week out so it could def come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Man, if we could only change the positioning of these two systems.. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Lol the NAM too warm at H85? Imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Won't that mean it came too west, too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Won't that mean it came too west, too strong? I believe that's the consensus. It explains the overestimating of precip. My (uneducated) opinion is along the lines of the 21z SREF guidance: 2-4" for the SW LSV up to 4-6" in the NE parts of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol ohhh great. at this point ill take 2 and run. my god man, you've had more snowfall this season than most of us, yet you STILL complain. Give it a rest. I wish posts by "ignored" users would be completely hidden. I seem to lack the willpower to avoid the "view it anyway" link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Won't that mean it came too west, too strong? Well just caught another post in the New England thread that said GFS did the same thing. I guess if the same damn thing led to two really different conclusions between the NAM and GFS it's time for the Euro to settle this soon. I've been angry at the NAM for being way too warm aloft for the setup in PA the last few days and it finally has gotten better throughout its cycle today. The Euro has been way cooler than the other guidance all along, especially at 850.. suggesting all snow in most of PA even when the NAM had it raining to the NY border. 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ARE BOTH TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. EDIT: I can confirm that via the HPC model diagnostic discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ok dude I said I would be pleased with 2 inches of snow...how is this bad? Its a miller b, it is what we should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm staying up for the euro. Might as well, I am enamoured w/ what Eastern MA will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im hoping the huge amounts stay for them man...really looking forward to watching live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Actually it's more of a Miller A due to the fact there are really two storms. The coastal and the frontal boundary coming from the west. it's just the coastal is going to absorb the energy from the western system. Miller B's transfer energy to a new system on the coast. We already have our established coastal it just hasn't deepened rapidly yet. Not picking at anyone just sharing information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good info dude...ur right more of an A...should have said coastal with benchmark tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro says GFS is wrong, NAM is too wet, and be happy LSV if you eek out 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mag you have the digits? guessing .15 or .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mag you have the digits? guessing .15 or .2. Your .44" still. MDT/LNS is about 0.3-0.35" JST/AOO/UNV a couple tenths or so. Won't see the maps for awhile but kind sounds like it isn't as expansive with its backlash maybe. These amounts in our particular region are probably about on par with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at 10/1 ratios or less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at 10/1 ratios or less? 10:1's probably good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Your .44" still. MDT/LNS is about 0.3-0.35" JST/AOO/UNV a couple tenths or so. Won't see the maps for awhile but kind sounds like it isn't as expansive with its backlash maybe. These amounts in our particular region are probably about on par with the GFS. You have QPF output for Buffalo airport from Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You have QPF output for Buffalo airport from Euro? BUF is about 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BUF is about 0.8" Thanks! What are ratios looking like for this storm 1:15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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