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Are there too many High Wind Warnings?


NickD2011

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There have been 3 high wind warnings since Hurricane Sandy. One for Winter Storm Athena, one for the December 21 storm, and tonight's storm. Yet the high wind warnings did not verify in the past and I doubt tonight's high wind warning verifies.

Usually there's only one high wind warning per year. I feel like we might become desensitized to a high wind warning. The only storm that deserved it was Sandy.

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There have been 3 high wind warnings since Hurricane Sandy. One for Winter Storm Athena, one for the December 21 storm, and tonight's storm. Yet the high wind warnings did not verify in the past and I doubt tonight's high wind warning verifies. Usually there's only one high wind warning per year. I feel like we might become desensitized to a high wind warning. The only storm that deserved it was Sandy.

 

Agree somewhat, disagree with tonight's HWW, getting very strong wind gusts rights now and many reports of gust over 50 mph. Sandy was a different type of beast as it was a pseudo hurricane at landfall.

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The HWW for the November 7 winter storm didn't work out because the boundary layer ended up colder than expected, which greatly limited mixing of 50+ kt winds from aloft, so we got snow instead of strong winds.

 

The HWW for the December 21 storm was a textbook S-SE flow high wind event for us, and worked out nicely as I recall.

 

This one is now beginning to work out as well since about 4 AM, with many non-thunderstorm gusts over 60 mph, and incoming reports of downed trees and roof damage.

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The data suggests that the high wind warning (HWW) was warranted. The definition of a high wind warning:

 

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME.  DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

 

From the latest PNS:

 

000
NOUS41 KOKX 311157
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-312350-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
650 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY
DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR
THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/NYC

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                        GUST            OF
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   1 ESE NORWALK           64   415 AM  1/31  MESONET
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      61   428 AM  1/31  ASOS
   DANBURY AIRPORT         53   435 AM  1/31  ASOS

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   WESTBROOK               78   520 AM  1/31  MEASURED ON THE BEACH
   OLD SAYBROOK            65   548 AM  1/31  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MIDDLETOWN              64   453 AM  1/31  MESONET

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   MADISON                 73   525 AM  1/31  MESONET
   EAST HAVEN              68   407 AM  1/31  MEASURED ON THE BEACH
   NEW HAVEN               61   416 AM  1/31  ASOS
   1 E NORTH HAVEN         54   444 AM  1/31  MESONET

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   1 SSE TEANECK           56   300 AM  1/31  MESONET

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   NEWARK AIRPORT          59   401 AM  1/31  ASOS
   CALDWELL AIRPORT        51   226 AM  1/31  ASOS

NEW YORK

...ANZ330...
   BUOY 44039              65   345 AM  1/31  BUOY

...ANZ335...
   BUOY 44040              65   415 AM  1/31  BUOY

...ANZ345...
   CAPTREE STATE PARK      56   435 AM  1/31  MESONET

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   CENTRE ISLAND           70   344 AM  1/31  MESONET
   NNE GLEN COVE           58   411 AM  1/31  MESONET

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK            43   413 AM  1/31  ASOS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   NYC/LA GUARDIA          64   354 AM  1/31  ASOS
   2 SSE JACKSON HEIGHT    58   402 AM  1/31  MESONET
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT         53   432 AM  1/31  ASOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   4 ENE PLUM ISLAND       64   521 AM  1/31  MESONET
   EATONS NECK             63   340 AM  1/31  MESONET
   EAST FARMINGDALE        61   404 AM  1/31  ASOS
   SHIRLEY AIRPORT         59   512 AM  1/31  ASOS
   ISLIP AIRPORT           59   503 AM  1/31  ASOS
   NORTHPORT               58   440 AM  1/31  YACHT CLUB MESONET
   1 SE AMITYVILLE         56   451 AM  1/31  MESONET
   PATCHOGUE               55   509 AM  1/31  TRAINED SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   LARCHMONT               54   230 AM  1/31  MESONET


***********************SUSTAINED WIND***********************

LOCATION                 WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                        SPEED           OF
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      49   428 AM  1/31  ASOS
   DANBURY AIRPORT         39   436 AM  1/31  ASOS

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   NEW HAVEN               40   429 AM  1/31  ASOS

NEW JERSEY

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   NEWARK AIRPORT          45   402 AM  1/31  ASOS

NEW YORK

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   NYC/LA GUARDIA          46   355 AM  1/31  ASOS
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT         43   433 AM  1/31  ASOS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ISLIP AIRPORT           44   504 AM  1/31  ASOS
   EAST FARMINGDALE        41   340 AM  1/31  ASOS
   FISHERS ISLAND          40   504 AM  1/31  MESONET
   SHIRLEY AIRPORT         39   457 AM  1/31  ASOS

$$

LN


 

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There have been 3 high wind warnings since Hurricane Sandy. One for Winter Storm Athena, one for the December 21 storm, and tonight's storm. Yet the high wind warnings did not verify in the past and I doubt tonight's high wind warning verifies. Usually there's only one high wind warning per year. I feel like we might become desensitized to a high wind warning. The only storm that deserved it was Sandy.

The answer my friend is blowin in the wind , the answer is blowin in the wind..........................

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There have been 3 high wind warnings since Hurricane Sandy. One for Winter Storm Athena, one for the December 21 storm, and tonight's storm. Yet the high wind warnings did not verify in the past and I doubt tonight's high wind warning verifies. Usually there's only one high wind warning per year. I feel like we might become desensitized to a high wind warning. The only storm that deserved it was Sandy.

 

Upton definitely doesn't. My area usually ends up in a Wind Advisory and only around 1pm yesterday did I get upgraded to a HWW so they were definitely debating whether to go with a warning or an advisory. Their choice for issuing a warning was the right one as I had several gusts in the 60 mph range.

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Using Don's definition LGA, JFK & ISP failed as I don't see sustained winds over 40 at all, highest sustained was 35 with a gust over 60 mph at LGA. I didn't look at EWR obs. If sustained winds over 40 are one part of the criteria for a HWW it would seem this time LGA, JFK & ISP failed.

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Using Don's definition LGA, JFK & ISP failed as I don't see sustained winds over 40 at all, highest sustained was 35 with a gust over 60 mph at LGA. I didn't look at EWR obs. If sustained winds over 40 are one part of the criteria for a HWW it would seem this time LGA, JFK & ISP failed.

Look at the bottom of PNS. They did see sustained winds 40mph+. As well some other stations.

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Using Don's definition LGA, JFK & ISP failed as I don't see sustained winds over 40 at all, highest sustained was 35 with a gust over 60 mph at LGA. I didn't look at EWR obs. If sustained winds over 40 are one part of the criteria for a HWW it would seem this time LGA, JFK & ISP failed.

Wrong.

 

***********************sustained wind***********************

Location wind time/date comments 
                        speed of 
                         mph measurement

Connecticut

... Fairfield County... 
   Bridgeport Airport 49 428 am 1/31 ASOS 
   Danbury Airport 39 436 am 1/31 ASOS 

... New Haven County... 
   New Haven 40 429 am 1/31 ASOS 

... New London County... 
   Groton Airport 40 600 am 1/31 ASOS 

New Jersey

... Essex County... 
   Newark Airport 45 402 am 1/31 ASOS 

New York

... Queens County... 
   NYC/La Guardia 46 355 am 1/31 ASOS 
   NYC/JFK Airport 43 433 am 1/31 ASOS 

... Suffolk County... 
   Islip Airport 44 504 am 1/31 ASOS 
   East Farmingdale 41 340 am 1/31 ASOS 
   Fishers Island 40 504 am 1/31 mesonet 
   Shirley Airport 39 457 am 1/31 ASOS 
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Love the one word response, classy!  Guess I get that for using my IPhone to post in the thread, won't be doing that again on this board.  Should have looked at the bottom of the PNS where the sustained wind section was, I only looked at the top since I though the whole PNS was gust reports.

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From NWS Taunton's website:

 

 

HIGH WIND WARNING Sustained winds 40-73 mph (≥35 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts ≥ 58 mph (≥50 kts)

 

The criteria is exactly the same for Upton. This is the definition I've seen in every HWW event - I haven't seen the wording posted earlier in this thread until reading it in this thread, and that wording is not the norm. Warning criteria only dictates meeting the sustained or gust criteria - both are not necessary. Likewise, advisory criteria requires sustained winds of 31+ and/or gusts of 46+. Just hoping to clear up the confusion here. 

 

This storm definitely met criteria. 

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From NWS Taunton's website:

 

 

HIGH WIND WARNING Sustained winds 40-73 mph (≥35 kts) for at least 1 hour; OR any gusts ≥ 58 mph (≥50 kts)

 

The criteria is exactly the same for Upton. This is the definition I've seen in every HWW event - I haven't seen the wording posted earlier in this thread until reading it in this thread, and that wording is not the norm. Warning criteria only dictates meeting the sustained or gust criteria - both are not necessary. Likewise, advisory criteria requires sustained winds of 31+ and/or gusts of 46+. Just hoping to clear up the confusion here. 

 

This storm definitely met criteria. 

The wording from the text of the HWW must have accidently excluded the "or." I agree that the HWW verified.

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The wording from the text of the HWW must have accidently excluded the "or." I agree that the HWW verified.

 

Yep, probably just a minor error during the inputting of the warning text.

 

Impressive to see that so many ASOS stations verified sustained criteria - 40 sustained is serious business. I think gusts to 58+ (serious business as well, of course) are probably a bit more common than measured 40+ sustained. 

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Yep, probably just a minor error during the inputting of the warning text.

 

Impressive to see that so many ASOS stations verified sustained criteria - 40 sustained is serious business. I think gusts to 58+ (serious business as well, of course) are probably a bit more common than measured 40+ sustained. 

I had skimmed it and hadn't noticed that "or" was missing when pointing out that the HWW was justified. NWS did a superb job.

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The official definition of the High Wind Warning is listed in NWS Directive 10-515, page 7:

"Wind speeds forecast to meet or exceed locally defined warning criteria. (Typical values are sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds of 58 mph or greater for any duration)."

You can see it defers to "locally defined" criteria.  However, the Eastern Region supplement, page 7, specifies:

"≥ 35 knots (40 mph) sustained for ≥ 1 hr or any duration gust ≥ 50 knots (58 mph)"

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