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Snow threats for the mountains.


Met1985

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RAP has been very consistent in bringing in a batch of precip, up to .2", through central NC, we should see some flakes from that, if its correct.

As everybody always ask, does that take in evaporation. I know somebody said the operational models do but not sure if the RAP does. **if it does then .2 could be more than a few flakes.

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22.2 degrees in Weaverville according to weather station up there.  That's interesting that it's colder there than it is at Grandfather Mountain.

 

 

GSP said there would be a bit of a warm nose with this system which they expect to dissapate by the time the precip starts.

 

Sun is still blazing in Avl and up to 26.

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KGSP Morning Update

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 900 AM...MRX RADAR INDICATING SNOW IS FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUDS

SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER TN/KY...BUT THE ECHOES DIMINISH IN LOW LEVELS

AS THE SNOW SUBLIMATES IN THE DRY NEAR SFC AIR. INDEED NONE OF THE

EAST TN OBS REPORT SNOW ATTM. A FEW VERY WEAK RETURNS ARE ALREADY

SEEN OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS BUT SAME STORY APPLIES. HOWEVER STRONGER

RETURNS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU RAPIDLY AND VIA

WET BULB EFFECT THESE WILL MOISTEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LATEST RAP

AND NAM SUGGEST SOME PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND IN THE SW NC MTNS

BEFORE 18Z...SO BROUGHT ONSET OF POPS TO 15Z THERE. AFTERNOON TREND

LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS

AND SKY COVER...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT TO KEEP CLEAR SKIES LONGER OVER

THE PIEDMONT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THERE.

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Asheville gets shadowed by 5000ft mtns on all sides except south. Downslope kills QPf in Asheville many times. When I lived there for 2 years i saw many times AVL get squat while waynesville gets 3-4 inches. It was quite annoying to see happen over and over. In fact the valley where Asheville sits is one of the driest parts of the state.

 

I can testify to that. Been there a number of times (I try to make the trip where there is a chance of snow) and what you describe is exactly the case. It's pretty amazing to see the difference in person.

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Asheville gets shadowed by 5000ft mtns on all sides except south. Downslope kills QPf in Asheville many times. When I lived there for 2 years i saw many times AVL get squat while waynesville gets 3-4 inches. It was quite annoying to see happen over and over. In fact the valley where Asheville sits is one of the driest parts of the state.

Moto I think the French broad river valley is the driest place in the state. And a drive just an hour southwest from the balsam chain west. Is one of the wettest places in the country. Go figure downsloping at its best.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-021800-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
1019 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA BY NOON...


AT 1000 AM...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
AT CROSSVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FAR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW COULD RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN
INCH PER HOUR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND THE NEWFOUND MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...
EVEN THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS COULD SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW.
 

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