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Snow threats for the mountains.


Met1985

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 PM EDT UPDATE...BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE LOWER NC PIEDMONT AND

UPSTATE TO ACCOUNT FOR REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED

WITH TRAVERSING UPPER S/W. THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 6.5 KFT...SO

A BRIGHT BANDING IS INDICATED ON THE DUAL POL IN RELATION TO GRAUPEL

AND MELTING SNOW. DONT ANTICIPATE VERY TALL OR LONG LIVED CELLS IN

THIS ENVIRONMENT. HOURLY TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJ DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES

MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AS THE THICK MULTI/LAYERED CLOUDS AND

PRECIP DRAG HAS KEPT THINGS COOLER THAN FCST/D.    

 

I wonder if Mt Mitchel saw any snow today at 6684 ft. Last I checked it was 39 degrees.

I had to make another post since I was at 666.

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Looking at BUFKIT soundings from the latest GFS solution highlights the possibility of a high elevation(5500 feet +) snowfall in the Monday afternoon/Tuesday morning time frame as an upper level low potentially crosses the mountains of Western N.C. (Confidence is low in this solution since the models have been all over the place in the handling of the upper level low.)

 

Temps around 810 mb drops below freezing with plenty of moisture in place..some snow growth in the clouds and a bit of vertical motion prints out about 0.1" of rain at KAVL which suggests a couple of inches of snow on Mt. Mtichell or even on my mountain top near Waterrock knob.

 

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Waterrock-Knob/forecasts/1918

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Mike I would not be surprised at all to see snow in the mountains if this thing tracks just over us. The Euro solution has come in much further south with the cutoff low and the GFS is even more south but we need the center to pass right over us to really get the most out of the cooling in the upper layers. One thing I am sure of is we are going to have a ton of rain out of this thing.

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I think this threat is done for for this winter/spring. Hey not a bad year with snowfall coming in at 42.5 inches of snow but it could have been colder. Not one tinme did we dip into the single digits this winter. Actually we got colder last winter than we did this winter but we had much more snow this winter. I give this winter a b-.

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Mt. Leconte did end up with some snow during this latest event along with some mixed wet snow falling at the very top of the Beech/Sugar Mtn areas yesterday morning.

 

http://www.highonleconte.com/1/post/2013/05/may1.html

Wow crazy for this time of the year. Ya I think I may have spoken to soon about the snow threat ending. Looks like we could have soem upslope out of this next cold snap this coming weekend.

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Wow crazy for this time of the year. Ya I think I may have spoken to soon about the snow threat ending. Looks like we could have soem upslope out of this next cold snap this coming weekend.

 

This came out on Twitter for Mt. Mitchell at 2 PM EDT.

 

"Mt Mitchell State Pk @MtMitchellStPk 12m

42 degrees - rain/ sleet near office 38 degrees - sleet/snow mix at summit"

 

Quick look at radar shows some nice convective returns around the Summit that are nearly stationary or drifting off to the South. 850 mb temps are at a rather mild 7 C but steep low-level lapse rates in the order of 8 C/KM suggests snow possible in convective elements. The reference to "sleet" is likely incorrect..it is probably graupel. Here's a link to pic of the snow in the Grandfather Mtn area: https://www.facebook.com/#!/Beech.Mountain.Resort

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This came out on Twitter for Mt. Mitchell at 2 PM EDT.

 

"Mt Mitchell State Pk @MtMitchellStPk 12m

42 degrees - rain/ sleet near office 38 degrees - sleet/snow mix at summit"

 

Quick look at radar shows some nice convective returns around the Summit that are nearly stationary or drifting off to the South. 850 mb temps are at a rather mild 7 C but steep low-level lapse rates in the order of 8 C/KM suggests snow possible in convective elements. The reference to "sleet" is likely incorrect..it is probably graupel. Here's a link to pic of the snow in the Grandfather Mtn area: https://www.facebook.com/#!/Beech.Mountain.Resort

Thanks Mike. Ya interesting weather to say the least in the mountains. It has been staight up cold the past several days and a late killing frost looks possible at the end of the weekend.

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Thanks Mike. Ya interesting weather to say the least in the mountains. It has been staight up cold the past several days and a late killing frost looks possible at the end of the weekend.

There was some mixed snow reported in the Plotts right on the Haywood/Jackson county line yesterday afternoon at 6130 feet..and that  likely marks the end of the snow season. The next surge of cold air likely isn't going to be cold enough or moist enough to generate upslope so we are looking at October before the flakes fly again.   Perhaps in the meantime, should start a mountain convection thread?  

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There was some mixed snow reported in the Plotts right on the Haywood/Jackson county line yesterday afternoon at 6130 feet..and that  likely marks the end of the snow season. The next surge of cold air likely isn't going to be cold enough or moist enough to generate upslope so we are looking at October before the flakes fly again.   Perhaps in the meantime, should start a mountain convection thread?  

Ya we could start another thread for daytime convection in the mountains. They do make there own weather and man get underneath one of those storms and you can have major hail high winds and flash flooding in now time. Ya we had a low yesterday morning of 37 degrees so the reports would be pretty accurate if had to bet on it. The next surge of cold I think will be plenty cold but the lack of moisture like you said wil just not be there. Hey time spring finally I recon.

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Ya we could start another thread for daytime convection in the mountains. They do make there own weather and man get underneath one of those storms and you can have major hail high winds and flash flooding in now time. Ya we had a low yesterday morning of 37 degrees so the reports would be pretty accurate if had to bet on it. The next surge of cold I think will be plenty cold but the lack of moisture like you said wil just not be there. Hey time spring finally I recon.

You aren't kidding. Just in the last few years..summer winds have blown a storage shed on the mountain top at my location into the next county, destroyed an observation tower and knocked down a Ham radio tower. (Microbursts and winds associated with squall lines.) The storms like to form on the SW side of the Plotts and sometimes anchor in place on the ridge top creating some rather spectacular flash floods over a small area. Small hail is very frequent.

 

Regarding the next cold wave, GFS..shows it cold enough but no moisture and weak upslope flow. (No surprise as the Great Lakes are very cold vs temps aloft and aren't generating much moisture compared to the Winter.) Euro is even worse. I would think a cold upper level low situation would have a better chance of producing high elevation snow going forward at least at my location since upslope isn't nearly as signficant as compared to points closer to the TN line and further North.

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