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Snow threats for the mountains.

Met1985

By Met1985,
in Southeastern States

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

I just posted this in the main storm thread......I saw it, looked at the radar, then the visible satellite image and scratched my head.  I do have to admit however, I like how FFC seems to be much more aggressive this year and "exciting" for lack of better words.  Makes following storms more fun, but not sure about this one. :huh:

They are way more aggressive which is a nice change.  I'm in that "warning" and I'm at 1,700 feet and just have token flakes flying around with a light dusting.  The lady at FFC said the vort is still digging and all that and the precip in TN was moving south, etc.  Personally I don't think I will see much more than I already have along with everyone else around here. 

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
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They are way more aggressive which is a nice change.  I'm in that "warning" and I'm at 1,700 feet and just have token flakes flying around with a light dusting.  The lady at FFC said the vort is still digging and all that and the precip in TN was moving south, etc.  Personally I don't think I will see much more than I already have along with everyone else around here. 

 

That's pretty cool that they were nice and took the time to speak to you on the phone.  The thing that threw me was that Dawson county is included......I know they have a couple of higher peaks, but I'm literally about 20 minutes from the county line up here in NE Gwinnett and just couldn't see WSW criteria for that area.  I keep telling myself I'm not gonna get up for these wraparound NW flow situations every year and I get sucked in every time hoping for a surprise  :) .  I guess I really just need to move about 100 miles to the NW (or to Salt Lake City or something)!!

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
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I think most of it is below the radar beam. 

That would be true as the moisture is at 4,500 ft and the beam is at 7k+ across far NGA.

 

i see it drying up as it moves south. Couldn't see much except on Dual Pol HCA 0.5º. It seems to be going away.

Yeah this event is going to end quickly for GA and last the rest of the day for WNC.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

That's pretty cool that they were nice and took the time to speak to you on the phone.  The thing that threw me was that Dawson county is included......I know they have a couple of higher peaks, but I'm literally about 20 minutes from the county line up here in NE Gwinnett and just couldn't see WSW criteria for that area.  I keep telling myself I'm not gonna get up for these wraparound NW flow situations every year and I get sucked in every time hoping for a surprise  :) .  I guess I really just need to move about 100 miles to the NW (or to Salt Lake City or something)!!

 

I just called the number on their website and press "x" to speak with a forecaster and...bam...their she was.  I told her who I was and where I lived and asked if it was a mistake.  She said no and then went on to explain their reasoning using MET jargon.  I didn't think they would be that easy to reach.

 

yeah we really never do good in NW flow stuff...especially on my side of Dahlonega.  From the spin of the apps northward thru Blue Ridge to Blairsville are the spots that win time after time with this set up.

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NGTim

NGTim

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Posted

I just called the number on their website and press "x" to speak with a forecaster and...bam...their she was.  I told her who I was and where I lived and asked if it was a mistake.  She said no and then went on to explain their reasoning using MET jargon.  I didn't think they would be that easy to reach.

 

yeah we really never do good in NW flow stuff...especially on my side of Dahlonega.  From the spin of the apps northward thru Blue Ridge to Blairsville are the spots that win time after time with this set up.

 

weird that the text forecasts have not been updated to reflect the higher totals in the warning. for example Blairsville still says less than 1/2 inch today.  Glad you called, otherwise I would think someone hacked into their site (wait a minute....)  I don't doubt the higher peaks will get some more, but I'm skeptical about our neck of the woods.    Can you expound on anything she said when you called? that would be very interesting, regardless of how far it went over my head. 

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

weird that the text forecasts have not been updated to reflect the higher totals in the warning. for example Blairsville still says less than 1/2 inch today.  Glad you called, otherwise I would think someone hacked into their site (wait a minute....)  I don't doubt the higher peaks will get some more, but I'm skeptical about our neck of the woods.    Can you expound on anything she said when you called? that would be very interesting, regardless of how far it went over my head. 

 

She said that the vort is still digging and the precip in TN is moving south.  I wasn't going to debate it with her but from everything I was looking at on all the model guidance suggested that the TN precip would not keep moving south as our 850mb moisture slowly dries up hour by hour after 9am.   She said is was for the higher elevations and that they have to issue the warning for the whole county.  But as you proved, even Woody Gap didn't get warning criteria so they are probably being a little liberal with the warning for Lumpkin IMHO.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
952 AM EST WED MAR 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     SNOW             15 NW DAWSONVILLE       34.57N 84.31W
03/06/2013  E1.0 INCH        DAWSON             GA   PUBLIC

0825 AM     SNOW             2 W HIAWASSEE           34.95N 83.79W
03/06/2013  M2.0 INCH        TOWNS              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE TOWNS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 2 INCHES OF
            SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOW STILL FALLING.

0833 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 W BRASSTOWN BALD      34.87N 83.83W
03/06/2013  E3.0 INCH        UNION              GA   PUBLIC

0930 AM     SNOW             BLAIRSVILLE             34.88N 83.96W
03/06/2013  E1.5 INCH        UNION              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0945 AM     SNOW             BLUE RIDGE              34.86N 84.32W
03/06/2013  E1.0 INCH        FANNIN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0945 AM     HEAVY SNOW       COHUTTA WILDERNESS      34.98N 84.59W
03/06/2013  E2.5 INCH        FANNIN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

From FFC:

 

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1041 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013

.UPDATE...

MEANT TO SEND AN UPDATE AFD EARLIER BUT GOT SIDETRACKED...BY NOW
EVERYONE IN IMPACTED COUNTIES SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WE UPGRADED TO
WINTER STORM WARNING. STARTED GETTING REPORTS OF 2-3 INCHES AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HAD TO GO AHEAD AND PULL THE TRIGGER FOR
THOSE MOUNTAINTOPS. IN PHONE CALLS MADE SINCE THEN...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE MOUNTAINTOPS HAVE REACHED 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A BIT OF CONFUSION WITH THE WARNING...WE ARE CONSIDERING THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED...AND THE MAIN POPULATION AREAS SHOULD
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SINCE ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN 2 INCHES OR BELOW IN THOSE AREAS. THIS IS MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
EVENT. ALSO...WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS...THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
ARE EXPERIENCING A LOT OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS REDUCING VSBYS.

MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH IN
THE MOUNTAINS DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS.
STARTING TO SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING THIN THE CLOUDS OUT ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE SLOPES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAVE IS NOW MOVING DOWN
INTO THE AREA /AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR/ SO HOPEFULLY THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THE WIND ADVISORY GOING...SOME AREAS NOT QUITE REACHING THRESHOLDS
BUT ENOUGH OF THE AREA IS THAT WE WILL KEEP IT IN PLACE FOR NOW.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1050 AM EST WED MAR 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     SNOW             AMICALOLA FALLS STATE P 34.57N 84.24W
03/06/2013  E1.0 INCH        DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

1000 AM     SNOW             DAWSONVILLE             34.42N 84.12W
03/06/2013  E1.0 INCH        DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

1015 AM     HEAVY SNOW       AMICALOLA FALLS STATE P 34.57N 84.24W
03/06/2013  E3.0 INCH        DAWSON             GA   PUBLIC

            THE LODGE AT AMICALOLA FALLS STATE PARK REPORTS BETWEEN
            2-3 INCHES ACCUMULATION.

1015 AM     HEAVY SNOW       VOGEL STATE PARK        34.77N 83.92W
03/06/2013  E3.0 INCH        UNION              GA   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            VOGEL STATE PARK REPORTS AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN
            THE WOODS...BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES IN OPEN AREAS...AND
            NOTHING ON THE ROADS.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

I just posted this in the main storm thread......I saw it, looked at the radar, then the visible satellite image and scratched my head. I do have to admit however, I like how FFC seems to be much more aggressive this year and "exciting" for lack of better words. Makes following storms more fun, but not sure about this one. :huh:

I like their more aggressive forecasts because I think it's worse that people get caught off guard when the forecast is for X amount of snow/ice and it ends up being more. But for some reason the general public (and some nws offices...including ffc until lately) have always thought the opposite. Never thought I'd say they are too aggressive imo in general but it's far better than not giving the full potential. So big kudos to them for that and I hope from this point forward that will be the case.

That said, Not sure I understand their reasoning for a warning, even in the higher elevations further south. They don't even mention additional accumulation in their latest zone forecasts. Maybe there are reports of up to 3 inches in the highest elevations, I don't know, but their forecast just doesn't seem to match their warning. And for areas further south, not sure I've ever seen a warning with pops in the 20 to 30% range lol. They do have, however, likely pops and accumulations further to the north (union, towns, etc)

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Winter Storm Warning Criteria for FFC:

 

Issued up to 36 hours before an event for an 80% or greater chance of a winter weather event that meets at least one of these criteria: 2 or more inches of snow in 12 hours (3 inches in northeast Georgia) or 4 or more inches of snow in 24 hours, 1/2 inch or more of sleet, or 1/4 inch or more of freezing rain. Issued as ATLWSWFFC.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

if you go through Maggie valley give us a measurement there.

I went thru maggie on my way there and it was bare ground. Came back thru Cherokee and there was about an inch or two still on the ground. I see wayah bald between Franklin and hayesville has a lot. You can get to the fire tower in your truck and its at 5400ft. I think its a closer drive for you than soco. I would be careful going up to wayah it gets kinda dicey.
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NGTim

NGTim

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I went thru maggie on my way there and it was bare ground. Came back thru Cherokee and there was about an inch or two still on the ground. I see wayah bald between Franklin and hayesville has a lot. You can get to the fire tower in your truck and its at 5400ft. I think its a closer drive for you than soco. I would be careful going up to wayah it gets kinda dicey.

ok thanks thats good info.  you had me till "dicey".  I've to the truck, but now that I have a little age and experience on me I'm less brave than I used to be.  That being said, going to have to investigate that. 

 

Man even at 3000 ft, it seems Maggie Valley gets shafted a lot.  I guess so much downslope?  but you'd think they were close enough to catch plenty coming over the top.  If Maggie Valley got more it would be the perfect place to go because of the ease of getting accomodations. 

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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ok thanks thats good info. you had me till "dicey". I've to the truck, but now that I have a little age and experience on me I'm less brave than I used to be. That being said, going to have to investigate that.

Man even at 3000 ft, it seems Maggie Valley gets shafted a lot. I guess so much downslope? but you'd think they were close enough to catch plenty coming over the top. If Maggie Valley got more it would be the perfect place to go because of the ease of getting accomodations.

wayah is a good place but you have to use a forestservice rd with spotty cell service. Its also very cold and icy.
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