franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Im liking the look after the upper low moves into the lakes. For the first 12-15 hours the flow will be from the southwest/ west, before turning into the classic northwest direction. With plenty of rh at 850 and even 700. This should work out good for the mtns of n ga and sw nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Nice Don. Ya and this maybe pretty good for you this next week. We have not had a real good NW flow event in a few years. I remember a few years back when it snowed all weekend from the NW flow snow and we had about 9 inches were I lived at the time but near the boarder there were waist deep snow drifts. In years past, my NW location has cashed in on NWFS, but it's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's about time to unleash this thread again very soon. GSP is hinting at a possible long NW flow event setting up with several inches on the way for the favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The 06z GFS is coming in more amped with this weekend storm. Showing more moisture and possibly several inches of snow in the mountains in addition to what will start Wed night here. Also looks like some snow down near the Charlotte area. This looks like it has some great potential with it. Our upslope snow looks like it will be right on cue. GSP is hinting at several inches of snow and may snow for several days straight up here in the mountains.Thanks for the stuff earlier from GSP Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 No problem 85, I would be pretty stoked about this up coming event if I was you. Multiple shots of reinforcement for the favored areas. A WWA is a given & a WSW is in the picture too. Would be nice to get some decent flow snow followed up by something from the south. Could be one of the best 10 day periods of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 No problem 85, I would be pretty stoked about this up coming event if I was you. Multiple shots of reinforcement for the favored areas. A WWA is a given & a WSW is in the picture too. Would be nice to get some decent flow snow followed up by something from the south. Could be one of the best 10 day periods of the season. Ya your right. We have not seen a period that is fixing to come up in about 2 years now. Oh I am pretty excited about what lies ahead. This system for this weekend keeps on peaking my interest. Take care Don and hope you get in on the snow action also along with the rest of our mountain friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That Saturday system has a southwest special look to it. Of course the usual suspects in NWFS will do well, but even the southern highlands look to pick up accumulations. Loving it. Very cold airmass will likely yield high snow ratios. pow pow is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That Saturday system has a southwest special look to it. Of course the usual suspects in NWFS will do well, but even the southern highlands look to pick up accumulations. Loving it. Very cold airmass will likely yield high snow ratios. pow pow is around the corner. I hear ya...TN border areas are in for it...i teach here in Mitchell county and we have already exhausted our teacher workdays and annual leave days...thankfully we had school today on 3-hr delay...spring break is on the chop block now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 The NWS has increased the chance for snow up to 70 percent from Wednesday through Friday. This is going to be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here are the short term and long term from GSP.....sorry about the long post. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOWSPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE MOISTURE PROGGED TO IMPACT THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGEFOR A PROLONGED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE SETUP WILL NOTFAVOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE H8FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINSDURING THIS TIME...KEEPING THE FLOW BACKED OVER OUR AREA. FORECASTTEMP PROFILES ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY ACCUMS...AS ITWILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO WORK DOWN TO THE VALLEYSWED EVENING...AND TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER REMAIN MARGINAL FORDENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONSWILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE PROFILESAND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT HIGH POPS (LIKELY TOCATEGORICAL) ALONG THE TENN BORDER.IT MAY BE THAT THE BEST ACCUMS DURING THIS PROLONGED EVENT HOLD OFFUNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE FLOW FINALLY TAKES ON AN TRULYORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN LESS THANIDEAL...WHILE MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR UVV WILL BEDIMINISHING. THEREFORE...I STILL DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A RISK FOR MORETHAN LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THEPEAKS AND HIGH RIDGES NEAR THE TENN BORDER. WE WILL CONTINUE TOADVERTISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PROLONGED ADVISORY-LEVEL NW FLOW SNOWEVENT IN THE HWO.TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ITSHOULD ALSO BE SAID THAT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY AREEXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE CU EAST OF THE MTNS...ESP THE NCPIEDMONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRAY SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES CANNOTBE RULED OUT.&&.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...LINGERING COLD AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THENC MTNS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT.MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT AN H5 CLOSED LOW CENTERWILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MID MS MIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. MODELDIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH THE EWD EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURETHROUGH SAT. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/CMCIN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED VORT ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT.THE DEEPER GFS ALSO FEATURES A CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION CROSSINGTHE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...POSSIBLYEVEN SNOW INTO PIEDMONT GIVEN THE CHILLY THICKNESSES. EVEN THE MOREOPEN CMC/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TEMPS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ATTIMES E OF THE MTNS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. WILL FEATURE A BLEND OFSOLUTIONS...PUSHING POPS UP INTO THE CHC CATEGORY ACROSS THE PIEDMONTSAT/SAT NIGHT.TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS THECONSOLIDATED TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD TO THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BEMUCH MORE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVELUPSLOPE RH WRINGING OUT ADDITIONAL WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEFRIDGING IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEMCLOSES OFF NEAR THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE. RETURN FLOW MOISTUREAHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUE. PROFILESCOULD BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX ON THE WARMADVECTION SIDE...AND PERHAPS SNOW AS THE SFC TO 850 MB REFLECTIONPASSES BY INTO TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I like the way the flow is setting up for the southern mtns tomorrow night. There is decent saturation even at 700mb. Might be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ya this long duration event looks like will be getting underway tomorrow. Snow in the forecast from tomorrow through Saturday. I think there could be some places that just get crushed with the NW flow above 3000 feet. Ya Don the GSP are really catching on to what is going to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Raysweather Graphic for Snowfall expected Wednesday thru Friday. http://averyweather.com/Special+Weather+Graphic More to come this weekend after this ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 439 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-280945- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- 439 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EACH DAY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER COULD EVENTUALLY RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME THE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN LATE SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I like the way the flow is setting up for the southern mtns tomorrow night. There is decent saturation even at 700mb. Might be a decent event. The more westerly flow gives our region better chances at breaking containment and really tends to nail the Great Balsams (Jackson/Haywood line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 so I know Beech always does well with NWSF, but does anyone know how Winterplace does? I'm trying to decide if I want to go skiing at Winterplace or Ski Beech on Saturday. I figured Beech will get more snow but Winterplace is larger which is nice. Any thoughts guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 SREF and RGEM showing tenn border/northern mtns approaching .25" qpf by 7am tomorrow...showing .1" or better qpf for northern Haywood, Swain, and Graham....maybe .25" in extreme NW Haywood and Swain....GSP predicting 20:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 SREF and RGEM showing tenn border/northern mtns approaching .25" qpf by 7am tomorrow...showing .1" or better qpf for northern Haywood, Swain, and Graham....maybe .25" in extreme NW Haywood and Swain....GSP predicting 20:1 ratio What i love about this event(s), as we have many NWFS during the winter, is the high ratios. I mean, this is going to be some great pow pow and i certainly will make an attempt to get in some runs this weekend, earlier the better to avoid the crowds and speedsters trying to knock me over flying down the mountain, lol. Looks like we could see a region wide (SW NC) dusting to an inch or two overnight into Saturday and throughout the day on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 What i love about this event(s), as we have many NWFS during the winter, is the high ratios. I mean, this is going to be some great pow pow and i certainly will make an attempt to get in some runs this weekend, earlier the better to avoid the crowds and speedsters trying to knock me over flying down the mountain, lol. Looks like we could see a region wide (SW NC) dusting to an inch or two overnight into Saturday and throughout the day on Saturday.very snowy week starting tonight. This event should yield some decent snow for us usually left out in the nwfs events. I like the flow tonight being out of the west/southwest and good saturation at 700mb. Then tomorrow night a few pieces of upper level energy roll thru from due west and should continue to enhance light steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GSP saying they'll issue WWA for the Northern Mtns via their latest FD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 GSP saying they'll issue WWA for the Northern Mtns via their latest FD.im surprised they are not talking warning for all border counties and advisory for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 GSP saying they'll issue WWA for the Northern Mtns via their latest FD. The Northern mountains. LOL I think they are having a tough time getting a handle on whether issue an advisory or a watch. I mean my forecast from the NWS service has snow for me from tonight through Sunday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 im surprised they are not talking warning for all border counties and advisory for everyone else. Spot on. Just what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The only thing that could hurt the usual spots and help my area is the more westerly component in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 The only thing that could hurt the usual spots and help my area is the more westerly component in the wind. Ya and I think there will be so much energy flying around most will see snow along the boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 This seems kind of weak but here is the Northern Mtns advisory. AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE319 PM EST WED FEB 27 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO7 PM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PMTHIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...GENERALLY NORTH OF MOUNT MITCHELL.* HAZARDS...SNOW...WHICH MAY COVER ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES.* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY...AND VISIBILITY MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Lol thats it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Lol thats it? Yep. That is it. Seems very conservative to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Guys that is just for a 22 hour period. I am sure they will be continued & expanded. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOPING FROM UPSLOPING IN THE MTNSNEAR THE TENN BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THE FIRST POCKET OF DPVAASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BORDER AROUND 00Z ANDTHIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE LLVL LIFT FROM THESLIGHTLY UPSLOPE WINDS. THE WINDS WILL VEER BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVEAS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES MORE OVERHEAD...AND THIS WILLLEAD THE UPSLOPING TO BECOME THE MAIN FORCING. MOISTURE REMAINSFAIRLY SHALLOW BUT PROFILES WILL BE SATURATED INTO THE SNOW GROWTHREGION. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN BUT WET BULBING WILL QUICKLYCOOL THE COLUMN AND ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE SFC. HAVE GONE WITHMODEST 13 TO 1 RATIOS WHICH LEADS TO MAINLY A HALF INCH OR LESS PERSIX HOURS. A MID TO LATE NIGHT PEAK IN SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHA SECOND VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH AT THAT TIME WITH WINDS BECOMINGWNW THUS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORTSEEN TOMORROW...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARSATURATION...SO UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS WELL.USING QPF GUIDANCE BASED ON NAM WHICH IS NEAR SREF MEANS TOTALSNOWFALL TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT GIVENTHE FACT THAT THIS IS THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPESNOWFALL WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR OUR NW MTNS...WHERETOTALS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Rays Weather upgraded for upcoming BIG SNOW mid day today for locales above 4500', MODERATE SNOW from 3000' to 4500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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