Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Thought I would start a thread on some of the events the mountains will see from now through the 3rd of February. Looks like the areas that do well in the North West Flow events will do the best with these three systems coming up. Starting tonight there are already WWA out for parts of the TN/NC boarder counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Rain is already starting to change to snow here in Haywood county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE1015 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM ESTTHURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE.* TIMING...RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST AND COLD WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE WILL DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY OF HALF AN INCH TO 1 INCH... WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF BLACK ICE AND UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES VERY DANGEROUS.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE 20S.* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOWWILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MEANS THAT REFREEZING OFROADS WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREADBLACK ICE. BE PREPARED FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. SOME ROADSTHAT APPEAR CLEAR MAY BE COVERED BY A THIN LAYER OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 We have switched to all snow with a temp of 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well here in town looks like we have a god dusting on the cars. Not sure about home until later this morning. Looks like more snow coming in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA420 AM EST THU JAN 31 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES FROM HAYWOOD TO GRAHAM.* HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 1 AM TO 5 AM.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION GENERALLY AROUND 2 INCHES...GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL COVER ROADS AND BRIDGES LATE TONIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S...WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Also a WWA for these counties AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Picked up a dusting overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wow! kind of surprised to see white ground this am. Very windy with a current temp of 29.3° & light snow. Kids are on a 2hr delay. Hard to tell with all the wind, but checking some more sheltered places I would say we have had close to .5" of snow. Looks like some more to come also. Here is part of GSP's overnight: TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A CLIPPER WILL DIVE ACROSSTHE NC MTNS BETWEEN 6Z TO 12Z. H85 TEMPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER COOLTO AS COLD AS -17C. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ONLY 6HRS LONG...MAY PRODUCE GREATER SNOWFALL COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.H85 WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION AND MOISTURE EXTENDS FROMNEAR THE SFC TO 8KFT. USING QPF FROM THE NAM12 AND HPC ANDCONSERVATIVE SLR AROUND 16 TO 1...THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AREFORECAST TO SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SN. I WILL POST A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY ALONG THE TN BORDER FOR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULDRANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO NEAR 30 EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice Franklin and Don. The ground temps should take a dive which will help with these next few systems coming in. Going to be mighty cold the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Only had a dusting out of this one. Lots of black ice though out on the roads and current temp is 24 degrees with a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarvelMountain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Take a look at Banner Elk right now. Upper teens and brisk winds! Look out for that wind chill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Snow is flying on top of Sugar. What a beatiful site this a.m. I think they will end up with a foot of fresh snow betwen now and Sunday night. http://www.skisugar.com/sugarlive/indextop.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Here's GSP's thoughts for tonight's action, but you have to think the highest peaks would see much more than this potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looking at the precip on the 12Z NAM & with GSP using a 16:1 ratio. It looks like the favored areas could get 2-4" out of tonights clipper. As you get further away from the spine it looks like 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like my family picked a good weekend to go to Banner Elk then. My 4 y/o hasn't seen any real snow in her life she can remember, so hoping she gets a good look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GSP's afternoon near term: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF MIDDAY THU...BIG EVENT FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THESTRONG CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BLOW THROUGH THE CWFA LATETONIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE FROM UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYTHIS AFTN THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTICREGION BY 12Z FRI. NAM AND GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING ANDMAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT. STRONGMID-UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOTED WITH THE SHORTWAVE BETWEEN09-12Z. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BELOW 700MB SO WE WILLSEE MOST OF THE QPF GENERATED BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL USHERIN MUCH COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPS DROP 10-15 DEGREES BETWEEN 06Z AND12Z FRI OVER THE MOUNTAINS WELL BELOW -10C. DESPITE BEING DRY ALOFTWHERE WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE SUCH COLD TEMPS FOR ICENUCLEATION...THESE TEMPS WILL INSTEAD BE IN THE NEAR SFC LAYERS WHERETHE UPSLOPE WILL BE PRODUCING LIFT. ALL PRECIP IS THUS EXPECTED TO BESNOW...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS SO CLOSE TO THESFC. QPF FROM VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOURCES IS NOT SPECTACULAR BECAUSE THEMOISTURE IS STILL RATHER SHALLOW. I USED VALUES CLOSE TO THE SREFMEAN. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE NEAR THE TNBORDER...STILL MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE GOING WINTER WX ADVISORY. THESPEED OF THE WAVE SUGGESTS THE EVENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...TAPERINGOFF FRIDAY MORNING.A SECOND CONCERN IS THE WIND THAT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR ANDPOTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS AS CAA AIDS LLVL MIXING. LATE TONIGHTFREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THEMOUNTAINS WITH RIDGE TOPS MIXING DOWN A FEW GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 KT.THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL BETWEEN THE GUSTYSUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER WINDS WITHTHE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEE HOURS FRIDAY...TO MINIMIZE CONFUSIONAND TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS MAINLY IN HIGHERTERRAIN THIS EVENING...I HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 18ZFRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 And updated snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Today has been a pleasant surprise. Several moderate snow "squalls" have pushed through, resulting in brief accumulations. I'm not sure guidance maintained scattered snow showers in the area this long. Nothing to write home about, but interesting nonetheless. Regarding our clipper: The aforementioned NW flow is doing a number to ensure cold ground temperatures. Rush hour tomorrow morning is a potential mess in the making. As has been discussed before, anytime extra energy influences an already potent northwest flow, the atmosphere is "squeezed" in this area. I think this event has the marking of a 1-3" event for the Tri-Cities, with 2-5" in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 MRX's afternoon AFD: .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACEANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH ACOLD AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS AGREE THAT ASHORT WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PUSH THIS COLD FRONTTHROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPINGALONG AND BEHIND IT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW-LEVELINSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITHCAPE VALUES UP TO 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCHMOISTURE WITH THIS QUICK-MOVING FRONT...THIS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITYSHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH THESE SNOWSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...TEMPS IN THE 20S TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TOENSURE THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS ACCUMULATES QUICKLY (AND POSSIBLYWITH A SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD 10:1 RATIO).WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDEALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST TNWHERE ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH. MODELSINDICATE THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE COLDFRONT...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TOCONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THENQUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGINGANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AGAINAPPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM...MAINLY OVERSOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FORTEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK REASONABLE..SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACEANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH ACOLD AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS AGREE THAT ASHORT WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PUSH THIS COLD FRONTTHROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPINGALONG AND BEHIND IT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW-LEVELINSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITHCAPE VALUES UP TO 50 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCHMOISTURE WITH THIS QUICK-MOVING FRONT...THIS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITYSHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH THESE SNOWSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...TEMPS IN THE 20S TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TOENSURE THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS ACCUMULATES QUICKLY (AND POSSIBLYWITH A SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD 10:1 RATIO).WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDEALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST TNWHERE ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN AN INCH. MODELSINDICATE THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE COLDFRONT...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TOCONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THENQUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGINGANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AGAINAPPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM...MAINLY OVERSOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FORTEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK REASONABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Ya looks like this system is coming in more juiced than what they thought of earlier. Here is the latest Advisory from GSP. Almost could issue Warning for higher elevations. Also notice the winds to. That is going to be a major factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA 318 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. * TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 1 AM TO 5 AM. BLACK ICE MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL COVER ROADS AND BRIDGES LATE TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MEANS THAT REFREEZING OF ROADS WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE. BE PREPARED FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS. SOME ROADS THAT APPEAR CLEAR MAY BE COVERED BY A THIN LAYER OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Also looks like a good portion of NE TN is going to get in on the action along with a large part of KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Take a look at Banner Elk right now. Upper teens and brisk winds! Look out for that wind chill... Beautiful pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 And updated snow map GSp seems bullish on this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z seems to look good for tonight and tomorrow with the snow coming into TN and WNC. Maybe also some light snow in Northen AL and GA when the moisture swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z also looks good for snow coming into TN and WNC Saturday night an Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like for the event on the 2nd and the 3rd the moisture seems to get over the mountains better and could spread snow into the foothills and further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like for the event on the 2nd and the 3rd the moisture seems to get over the mountains better and could spread snow into the foothills and further East. There is a lot of 700mb rh showing up so that should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 There is a lot of 700mb rh showing up so that should help. Ya I agree. This event looks great for the mountains. Looks like a long duration NWFE setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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