MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro is .15-.20 of precip for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 MT HOLLY AFD .... A snow event for the entire area , unless you live in SNJ , so dont worry about rain , its about strength . And there 1 to 2 seems reasonable. I think someone on Long Island eeeks out 3. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY,HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OFWEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD /I.E. SURFACE TROUGH/ EXTENDINGNORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER-LEVELTROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT, THEREFORE THERE COULD BE SOME SORTOF DEFORMATION DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STRONG CHANNELIZED VORTICITYFORECAST AS WELL. THIS ALL MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE LIFT ANDPERHAPS COMBINE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING TOSSED WESTWARDFROM THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. THE OVERALL FLOW SUGGESTS THISIS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN LIFT BECOMING MORE ORGANIZEDTO OUR NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BESOME BETTER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THEN DOWNTOWARD MONMOUTH/OCEAN COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. THESE AREAS WILL BECLOSER TO THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AS THE STRENGTHENINGSURFACE LOW DEPARTS.OVERALL, WE PAINTED IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA/THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE DELMARVA/ GIVEN THE SPEED AND A QPFCONSENSUS BLEND. THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAYCOULD LEAD TO SOME MELTING ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT ATFREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THECWA. ACROSS THE NORTH, AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER IF WE CAN GETENHANCEMENT TO TAKE PLACE AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. THEAIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY TO START SO SOME COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACEDUE TO EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATEPERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWJERSEY INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Alan Kasper says only a coating of snow to an inch http://nj1015.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 9z SREF shifted more west compared to the 3z SREF. NYC is in the .10 contour while eastern LI is in the .25 contour. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_069_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 While the NAM looks overdone here, even the GFS is hinting that eastern areas may have TT's around 50 which is a strong Norlun signal. Still hard to guess where the actual inverted trough sets up this far out, so this may end up being a nowcast special. Some spots could get a coating to an inch while others pick up 3 or more in a quick snow burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 9z SREF shifted more west compared to the 3z SREF. NYC is in the .10 contour while eastern LI is in the .25 contour. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_069_precip_p24.gif Yes but they are a far cry from the 21z run yesterday which had the 0.25" line into NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yes but they are a far cry from the 21z run yesterday which had the 0.25" line into NW NJ. It's an improvement over the 3z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z ARW has .25+ for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's an improvement over the 3z run. I think most areas will be lucky to see actual accumulations. Especially western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z ARW has .25+ for the area Does NJ not count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does NJ not count? There is a little blob of .50 in south Jersey on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I think most areas will be lucky to see actual accumulations. Especially western sections. Why? All the models have at least .10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Why? All the models have at least .10. you have to realize this storm is warmer then the one last friday so a good portion of that.10 will melt on contact with the ground...... so a coating is the way to go and as soon as the sun appears monday that will be melted then on to the next coating tuesday which melts fast and so on and so on .............then when we do get some real precip it will rain............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There is a little blob of .50 in south Jersey on this run. Yes but that's not part of this sub-region. Here is a pic out of DE from the current ongoing snow. Getting reports out of the Philly forum of heavy snow at KACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There is a little blob of .50 in south Jersey on this run. Thanks for looking out for us in South Jerz. It's a shame this clipper is very small and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 you have to realize this storm is warmer then the one last friday so a good portion of that.10 will melt on contact with the ground...... so a coating is the way to go and as soon as the sun appears monday that will be melted then on to the next coating tuesday which melts fast and so on and so on .............then when we do get some real precip it will rain............ It's going to be below freezing throughout the storm. How is it going to melt? Yes but that's not part of this sub-region. Here is a pic out of DE from the current ongoing snow. Getting reports out of the Philly forum of heavy snow at KACY That is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Why? All the models have at least .10. Because things will probably continue to shift. I think eastern LI has the best chance of accumulating snow, and they are more a part of New England out that way than the NYC area. We won't see great ratios out of this, so assuming even 10:1 for you guys we're talking around an inch, maybe slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Thanks for looking out for us in South Jerz. It's a shame this clipper is very small and dry. Aren't you guys getting slammed down there in Cape May right now? Hearing numerous reports out of the Philly forum of decent accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Because things will probably continue to shift. I think eastern LI has the best chance of accumulating snow, and they are more a part of New England out that way than the NYC area. We won't see great ratios out of this, so assuming even 10:1 for you guys we're talking around an inch, maybe slightly more. I'm not saying anything about a big snowfall. Right now, it looks like 1-3 inches is a good call. It still could go either way since we are 2 days away from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Aren't you guys getting slammed down there in Cape May right now? Hearing numerous reports out of the Philly forum of decent accumulations. Cape May is in a nice snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's going to be below freezing throughout the storm. How is it going to melt? That is beautiful huh ? KNYC has temps in the mid 30's sunday - what forecast are you reading ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 you have to realize this storm is warmer then the one last friday so a good portion of that.10 will melt on contact with the ground...... so a coating is the way to go and as soon as the sun appears monday that will be melted then on to the next coating tuesday which melts fast and so on and so on .............then when we do get some real precip it will rain............ It has less to do with melting on contact and more to do with crappy ratios. Even when the NAM was jackpotting the area yesterday it was only spitting out 8:1 ratios and occasionally 10:1. We went through that two day stretch of warmth and rain but the ground is still frozen in most spots so sticking shouldn't be a huge issue unless the intensitiy is meh which is definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not saying anything about a big snowfall. Right now, it looks like 1-3 inches is a good call. It still could go either way since we are 2 days away from the event. I would say a light dusting is the right call now, with the outside chance of 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 huh ? KNYC has temps in the mid 30's sunday - what forecast are you reading ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html The models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It has less to do with melting on contact and more to do with crappy ratios. Even when the NAM was jackpotting the area yesterday it was only spitting out 8:1 ratios and occasionally 10:1. We went through that two day stretch of warmth and rain but the ground is still frozen in most spots so sticking shouldn't be a huge issue unless the intensitiy is meh which is definitely a possibility. again as I asked snow88 - NYC has temps in the mid 30's sunday - how is part of that not going to melt ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like the 12z NAM is going to continue with keeping the coastal precip well SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the last few pages of discussion belong in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 again as I asked snow88 - NYC has temps in the mid 30's sunday - how is part of that not going to melt ? http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Look at the models, not the discussions. Nam is below freezing throughout the event. Same as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the last few pages of discussion belong in the banter thread Enjoy your Norlun on Sunday, NAM loves KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the last few pages of discussion belong in the banter thread THANK YOU - JUST SO MUCH JUNK Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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