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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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MT HOLLY AFD .... A snow event for the entire area , unless you live in SNJ ,  so dont worry about rain , its about strength . And there 1 to 2 seems reasonable. I think someone on Long Island eeeks out 3.

 

 

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY,
HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OF
WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD /I.E. SURFACE TROUGH/ EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT, THEREFORE THERE COULD BE SOME SORT
OF DEFORMATION DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS STRONG CHANNELIZED VORTICITY
FORECAST AS WELL. THIS ALL MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE LIFT AND
PERHAPS COMBINE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING TOSSED WESTWARD
FROM THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. THE OVERALL FLOW SUGGESTS THIS
IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN LIFT BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
TO OUR NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME BETTER POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THEN DOWN
TOWARD MONMOUTH/OCEAN COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. THESE AREAS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AS THE STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS.

OVERALL, WE PAINTED IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
/THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE DELMARVA/ GIVEN THE SPEED AND A QPF
CONSENSUS BLEND. THE ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
COULD LEAD TO SOME MELTING ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AT
FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA. ACROSS THE NORTH, AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER IF WE CAN GET
ENHANCEMENT TO TAKE PLACE AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. THE
AIRMASS LOOKS RATHER DRY TO START SO SOME COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

 

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While the NAM looks overdone here, even the GFS is hinting that eastern areas may have TT's around

50 which is a strong Norlun signal. Still hard to guess where the actual inverted trough sets up this

far out, so this may end up being a nowcast special. Some spots could get a coating to an inch

while others pick up 3 or more in a quick snow burst.

 

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9z SREF shifted more west compared to the 3z SREF. NYC is in the .10 contour while eastern LI is in the .25 contour.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_069_precip_p24.gif

Yes but they are a far cry from the 21z run yesterday which had the 0.25" line into NW NJ.

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Why? All the models have at least .10.

you have to realize this storm is warmer then the one last friday so a good portion of that.10 will melt on contact with the ground...... so a coating is the way to go and as soon as the sun appears monday that will be melted then on to the next coating tuesday which melts fast and so on and so on .............then when we do get some real precip it will rain............

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you have to realize this storm is warmer then the one last friday so a good portion of that.10 will melt on contact with the ground...... so a coating is the way to go and as soon as the sun appears monday that will be melted then on to the next coating tuesday which melts fast and so on and so on .............then when we do get some real precip it will rain............

 

It's going to be below freezing throughout the storm. How is it going to melt?

Yes but that's not part of this sub-region.

 

Here is a pic out of DE from the current ongoing snow. Getting reports out of the Philly forum of heavy snow at KACY

 

0201130805.jpg

 

That is beautiful

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Why? All the models have at least .10.

Because things will probably continue to shift. I think eastern LI has the best chance of accumulating snow, and they are more a part of New England out that way than the NYC area. We won't see great ratios out of this, so assuming even 10:1 for you guys we're talking around an inch, maybe slightly more.

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Because things will probably continue to shift. I think eastern LI has the best chance of accumulating snow, and they are more a part of New England out that way than the NYC area. We won't see great ratios out of this, so assuming even 10:1 for you guys we're talking around an inch, maybe slightly more.

 

I'm not saying anything about a big snowfall. Right now, it looks like 1-3 inches is a good call. It still could go either way since we are 2 days away from the event.

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you have to realize this storm is warmer then the one last friday so a good portion of that.10 will melt on contact with the ground...... so a coating is the way to go and as soon as the sun appears monday that will be melted then on to the next coating tuesday which melts fast and so on and so on .............then when we do get some real precip it will rain............

It has less to do with melting on contact and more to do with crappy ratios. Even when the NAM was jackpotting the area yesterday it was only spitting out 8:1 ratios and occasionally 10:1. We went through that two day stretch of warmth and rain but the ground is still frozen in most spots so sticking shouldn't be a huge issue unless the intensitiy is meh which is definitely a possibility.

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It has less to do with melting on contact and more to do with crappy ratios. Even when the NAM was jackpotting the area yesterday it was only spitting out 8:1 ratios and occasionally 10:1. We went through that two day stretch of warmth and rain but the ground is still frozen in most spots so sticking shouldn't be a huge issue unless the intensitiy is meh which is definitely a possibility.

again as I asked snow88 - NYC has temps in the mid 30's sunday - how is part of that not going to melt ?

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

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