ag3 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 SREF is way west. .25 into nyc.It also shows the banding over NYC. .25" line goes to NWNJ this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 SREF's are a dream come true, but since they are the SREFS their odds of verification are near zero. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nam is a brief period of snow, then develops norlun right where bluewave likes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not a good run. It's the nam so let's see what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 SREF's are a dream come true, but since they are the SREFS their odds of verification are near zero. -skisheep ? SREF's have been pretty good this winter. Maybe not in this time frame, but within 48hrs they're pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 The NAM has the first SW shooting out too fast, so when the much stronger SW moves in the moisture is stolen from the first weaker SW. The upper level dynamics are excellent for a major storm, if things phase up right. Since, the trough is negatively tilted with strong PVA I do see some potential from this. It is a very complex storm so the models will have trouble forecasting it. Since things will happen after 48hrs I would trust tonight's GFS run more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I agree there is some degree of potential. Noted in the SREFs. 21z SREFs have some very amped solutions, giving LI up to 1.5" liquid equivalent. Some of the SREF's did the exact same thing with the 1/21 light snow event and that didn't really happen 21z SREFs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The NAM has the first SW shooting out too fast, so when the much stronger SW moves in the moisture is stolen from the first weaker SW. The upper level dynamics are excellent for a major storm, if things phase up right. Since, the trough is negatively tilted with strong PVA I do see some potential from this. It is a very complex storm so the models will have trouble forecasting it. Since things will happen after 48hrs I would trust tonight's GFS run more. But how do you get a major storm when the NAO is positive and the PNA is neutral or MAYBE slightly positive and the AO is positive ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 That means that statically it is harder to get a storm, but still not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 this so called threat will probably equal another 20 page thread which equals flurries lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 this so called threat will probably equal another 20 page thread which equals flurries lol Maybe for you, but every time a thread is made for events such as this, I at least pick up couple of inches. I say 1-2" area wide but there's a small potential for way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hr 57 preciep breaking out along mid Atlantic coast. Light snow up to acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hr 60 light snow up to Holmdel nj. Hr 63 brushing coast with light snow. 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Little bit of work on that shortwave-just a tickle further west and south and it's a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hr 66 Light snow Beginning to end in CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 About .1 for the city, more south of there. Pretty meh run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 As it is now, I think most of us are in store for snow. All you can ask at this point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 0z GFS is further east than the 18z run. Still .10 for the area with all the levels below freezing. Light snowfall on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 About .1 for the city, more south of there. Pretty meh run. How much more? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 We should talk about where the best banding sets up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 We should talk about where the best banding sets up..... The Nam and the GFS keep on insisting on a norlun trough setting up somewhere in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS is east and more progressive-just look at how fast the negatively tilting trough is forced east and therefore can't dig out a low until it's way too late. Just about ready to write this one off for anything more than our usual coating to 2" snow. There's potential for the inverted trough but that's anyone's guess and could very easily just be nothing. I think the most we can expect is that some snow will hopefully be on the ground again soon. This winter just won't allow for anything beyond these disorganized and sheared clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 How much more? Rossi .12 perhaps..not much more. No reason to believe these fast moving systems are going to produce anymore then a inch. Models love to to tease us around day 3-4. Can't wait to nail this winter shut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The Nam and the GFS keep on insisting on a norlun trough setting up somewhere in the area. It looks like it could be around the city and out east....SW to NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It looks like it could be around the city and out east....SW to NE..... Norlun troughs are tricky and could change at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 .12 perhaps..not much more. No reason to believe these fast moving systems are going to produce anymore then a inch. Models love to to tease us around day 3-4. Can't wait to nail this winter shut Absolutely. At least last winter didn't offer these teases. Hopefully we get our usual March megatorch and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Absolutely. At least last winter didn't offer these teases. Hopefully we get our usual March megatorch and go from there. Snow is snow. I can care less anymore about big events. I will be happy with 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Absolutely. At least last winter didn't offer these teases. Hopefully we get our usual March megatorch and go from there. Agree. Wes likes a early end to winter, which would be great. These days models usually get the crappy and warm patterns correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Norlun troughs are tricky and could change at the last minute. I'm not forecasting...just talking about the model data. Having said this....let's watch.....feel good about a general snow for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not forecasting...just talking about the model data. Having said this....let's watch.....feel good about a general snow for all The GFS now has the surface below freezing throughout the event for the whole area. A 1-3 inch snowfall would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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