Momza Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is usually awful with these inverted troughs, I wouldn't put any stock into it even 24 hours out. Are inverted troughs always nowcasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If it's a norlun scenario, then we're probably screwed. Anything past 48 hrs on the Nam should be taken very lightly. I think it took a big step back from its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If it's a norlun scenario, then we're probably screwed. Anything past 48 hrs on the Nam should be taken very lightly. I think it took a big step back from its previous run. Actually, it was a step forward. There was more digging on this run compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Actually, it was a step forward. There was more digging on this run compared to the 12z run. The main energy dug better this run, but the lead energy escaped a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If it's a norlun scenario, then we're probably screwed. Anything past 48 hrs on the Nam should be taken very lightly. I think it took a big step back from its previous run. Yeah, most likely. I'd much rather be further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Are inverted troughs always nowcasted? Many times that's how it works out. The models give a general signal, but location and amounts of snow are usually better forecast in the short term. Sometimes it's the best hope in a La Nina-like pattern with a dominant northern stream where the secondary low gets going too far offshore. The really memorable ones are on the rare side here. December 1988 was one of the all time greats during a strong la Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 63 precip over hse...18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like it will be too late for us again. Perhaps it will come in wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 72 the low is further east. Looks a lot like euro. Light snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .10+ on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .10+ this run, mostly if not all from norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The flow is way too fast for us to benefit. Probably just some light snows as is the usual with these clippers anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NWS 4pm forecast update for my area: Sat. nite- 50% chance of snow. Lows in the low 20's Sunday: Snow likely. Chance of snow 60% Highs in the low 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .10+ this run, mostly if not all from norlun We got in on the norlun and it's only .10+? That doesn't sound pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We got in on the norlun and it's only .10+? That doesn't sound pretty. I'm afraid so, the costal is further east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Upton says light snow or light rain on Sunday for long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The flow is way too fast for us to benefit. Probably just some light snows as is the usual with these clippers anyway. I'm not optimistic about this unless a mechanism can slow the flow down, or the trough amplifies further west somehow. The flow looks too messy, and it's impossible to rely on an inverted trough setting up even 24 hours out. I'd be a lot more optimistic if I were in eastern New England as they have more room for error than us. If I were to guess now I'd assume a coating to 2 inch type deal like we've been having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'd go with an inch or two, that seems like a likely call right now, maybe some snow tomorrow, a couple on Sunday and then a couple more on Tuesday. There's nothing wrong with getting several minor events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'd go with an inch or two, that seems like a likely call right now, maybe some snow tomorrow, a couple on Sunday and then a couple more on Tuesday. There's nothing wrong with getting several minor events. I will take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Agreed, I think the odds favor Eastern Areas unless the coastal low itself works further NW. The general rule with norluns at this range is to go slightly northeast of where the models show them occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Many times that's how it works out. The models give a general signal, but location and amounts of snow are usually better forecast in the short term. Sometimes it's the best hope in a La Nina-like pattern with a dominant northern stream where the secondary low gets going too far offshore. The really memorable ones are on the rare side here. December 1988 was one of the all time greats during a strong la Nina year. Screen shot 2013-01-31 at 8.23.36 AM 09-00-11-801.png The signal for this event is very strong at 500-850, even stronger than it was for the event in SNE that busted a couple of weeks back. If you look at the 500 heights on the link below from the early evening on 12/13/88 you can see how remarkably close that 500 map looks, obviously the surface low is much closer this time but I think its a pretty good chance an inverted trof is forming somewhere between CNJ and Boston with this event but where or how intense is not even possible at this point to say. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1988/us1214.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 These systems are 1 to 3 inch type events . I have to ignore the Norlun look this far out , because they are NEVER modeled well. I will stick to the clipper coming to the coast and snowing . These aren`t big events but each of these may put down snow cover throughout this board. As far as UPTONs AFD , if its a really light event , the immediate coast could mix at the end , But it starts as snow everywhere and if the system is deep enough , it will stay snow in most places. Thermo profiles will get clearer over the next 24 hours , as the models start to agree on the real position and strength of the SW as it hits the coast . But both UPTON and MT Holly allude to the above concern . But unless you live in SNJ , Eastern LI or an immediate south facing shore IMO I wouldnt worry about Rain . Norluns are great , super tight gradient and stationary . Its like driving from PULASKI to WATERTOWN . within 30 mins of driving, you go from 2 inches to 8 and back to 2 on the other side ... They do love NE though ,so I am cautious . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is usually awful with these inverted troughs, I wouldn't put any stock into it even 24 hours out. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gefs is wetter than the op. Has NYC in .25 precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 For most of the area except further east closer to the offshore storm track this event looks like a carbon copy of a couple of the previous ones - 1 or 2 inches then it melts the next day.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 1-2 is fine for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 1-2 is fine for me see how important it is to have the indicies favorable ?- if they were - fair chance we would be talking about 1 - 2 feet for parts of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 see how important it is to have the indicies favorable ?- if they were - fair chance we would be talking about 1 - 2 feet for parts of the area Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 see how important it is to have the indicies favorable ?- if they were - fair chance we would be talking about 1 - 2 feet for parts of the area Not from a clipper. In a perfect weenie world would we have all of the indicies in a favorable state. In reality, that doesn't happen often at all. I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 SREF is way west. .25 into nyc.It also shows the banding over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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