JonClaw Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Any ETA on when the S/W will be fully sampled? 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 WU maps show inverted trough with heavier banding over NYC I would think we have a better chance with the actual development of the storm than with whatever weenie band might be showing up now on models. Those inverted troughs are notoriously shifty and difficult to forecast. It could just as easily verify over Philly, out over the ocean or not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Indeed you were. Nailed that --- so let's see if you go 2 for 2 on this! Right now I think we again to thread to needle again here to even get more than a 1-4 inch snowfall, we sort of need the perfect scenario where the primary dies and the coastal takes over and we can get some decent snows from the primary and then some from the coastal. Something in between the 12Z NAM and Euro/GFS...right now if we get the exact GFS/Euro scenarios we're gonna need either the norlun which for NYC is extremely unusual (although in this situation the setup is as close to ideal for it as you're ever going to see) or a tick NW. My guess right now is we get the gradual move NW bthough the next 3 days but I don't know if its enough to get us anything near warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Right now I think we again to thread to needle again here to even get more than a 1-4 inch snowfall, we sort of need the perfect scenario where the primary dies and the coastal takes over and we can get some decent snows from the primary and then some from the coastal. Something in between the 12Z NAM and Euro/GFS...right now if we get the exact GFS/Euro scenarios we're gonna need either the norlun which for NYC is extremely unusual (although in this situation the setup is as close to ideal for it as you're ever going to see) or a tick NW. My guess right now is we get the gradual move NW bthough the next 3 days but I don't know if its enough to get us anything near warning criteria. These 1-4" snowfalls we've been having up in the great NW of NJ have been awesome (we've probably had about 8 this year) and I feel bad that those S and E are missing out. They are pretty, easy to shovel and don't snarl your life. I'll take 3 more of those in a row any day... I'm a realist and know how lucky we've been w/ the recent slew of KU events, so keep the light snowfalls coming --- but send some love to those S and E of here as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Any ETA on when the S/W will be fully sampled? 00z? I'd give it another day or two until we get details ironed out. The models have been prone to overamplifying northern stream shortwaves this year, even within 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Right now I think we again to thread to needle again here to even get more than a 1-4 inch snowfall, we sort of need the perfect scenario where the primary dies and the coastal takes over and we can get some decent snows from the primary and then some from the coastal. Something in between the 12Z NAM and Euro/GFS...right now if we get the exact GFS/Euro scenarios we're gonna need either the norlun which for NYC is extremely unusual (although in this situation the setup is as close to ideal for it as you're ever going to see) or a tick NW. My guess right now is we get the gradual move NW bthough the next 3 days but I don't know if its enough to get us anything near warning criteria. don't you think with the fast flow and and the indicies especially the NAO being slightly positive now lessen the chance of any meaningful coastal development ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z Nam has a norlun trough over NYC from hour 66-72 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .25+ and still snowing. All from norlun 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 close to 0.5 for the city, especially southern parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Close to .5 for the city at the end. I would not even trust this so far out, but we should see snow for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 .25+ and still snowing. All from norlun 18z nam How far south into NJ does the norlun go? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 you could see with this run the NAM is allowing the first s/w to drive the development of the surface low (like the euro) which means it ends up too far east when it interacts with the northern stream....a sooner more clean interaction between these could mean a decent size storm for us. I just hate relying on a norlun to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z Namhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_081_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 How far south into NJ does the norlun go? Rossi Everyone from acy north .25+. Still would not jump for joy yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_081_precip_p24.gif A regional view from E Wall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Verbatim, this is a moderate snowfall on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 wow a tongue of 0.5-0.75 through a lot of the area on the regional map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like the 18Z NAM has about .5" of liquid from NNJ to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's digging but the trough axis is too far east for us to be confident in getting a share of the snow from the coastal low. We need that trough to dig further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's digging but the trough axis is too far east for us to be confident in getting a share of the snow from the coastal low. We need that trough to dig further west. thats what I'm saying...its much more of a guarantee if we can get the surface low N and W than to rely on subtle dynamics to drive the norlun trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Figuring 11:1 ratios probably a solid advisory snowfall on the 18z NAM. Good band swings right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Figuring 11:1 ratios probably a solid advisory snowfall on the 18z NAM. Good band swings right over us. That's a norlun trough and highly unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Talk about a tight gradiant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 That's a norlun trough and highly unpredictable. Thank you Captain obvious!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Figuring 11:1 ratios probably a solid advisory snowfall on the 18z NAM. Good band swings right over us. Nassau County=jackpot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is usually awful with these inverted troughs, I wouldn't put any stock into it even 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is usually awful with these inverted troughs, I wouldn't put any stock into it even 24 hours out. C'mon man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is usually awful with these inverted troughs, I wouldn't put any stock into it even 24 hours out. Agreed, I think the odds favor Eastern Areas unless the coastal low itself works further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Just 10 days ago, SREFs had 45% probabilities of 8"+ for coastal Maine 12 hours before the event. They ended up getting very little at all. Nonetheless, I'd love to see the inverted trough play out exactly as modeled here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Stay on topic please Look who's talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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