Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Highest NYC gets on the NAM is 33 degrees and that's at the end. .39" of total precip. So nam has def cooled off. 1/1 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The SREF's have a colder look like the Euro and UKMET with a more southerly low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I belive(someone correct me if I am wrong), that NAM is all snow for my area(Stamford, CT?) Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gfs has light snow for Phl south for Friday night now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS is really digging both the lead vort and the secondary one at 60 hr especially compared to its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gfs has not getting above frz Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 69 low forming over hse with preciep. And area of light snow over Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 1012 east of Norfolk. This is going to be a good run for Long Island and sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This run is digging the vort much more than last night...we should see a coastal low offshore by 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 75 light snow in area. 1000mb east of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 78 costal low just off shore light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Hr 84 Boston getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Close to .25 for the city. Long Island is .25+ Hopefully surface is not to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Close to .25 for the city. Long Island is .25+ Hopefully surface is not to warm Surface is colder for the city but precip is only .18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The convective parameters look great especially the further east that you go. Sounding variables and indices1000-500 mb thick: 5243.79 mFreezing level: 976.83 mb = 170.85 m = 560.51 ftWetbulb zero: 986.89 mb = 86.84 m = 284.90 ftPrecipitable water: 0.40 inchesSfc-500 mean rel hum: 93.05 %Est. max temperature: 5.69 C = 42.24 FSfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 971.50 mb = 212.45 m = 697.01 ft T: -0.30 C700-500 lapse rate: 7.08 C/kmThetaE index: 0.03 C Layer 950.0- 900.0 mbConv cond level (CCL): 916.41 mb = 677.03 m = 2221.20 ft Mean mixing ratio: 3.32 g/kg Conv temperature: 3.36 C = 38.05 FCap Strength: 6.71 CLifted Index: 7.56 C Risk: NoneLifted Index @300 mb: 21.14 CLifted Index @700 mb: 3.99 CShowalter Index: 6.62 C Risk: NoneTotal Totals Index: 50.67 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 25.58 C Cross Totals Index: 25.08 CK Index: 17.57 Risk: < 20 % chance of thunderstormsSweat Index: 110.40 Risk: NoneEnergy Index: 1.77 Risk: None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The more robust the precip , the colder the surface will reflect a colder look . As it is , its snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's difficult for us to really benefit from a bombing clipper but the gfs is heading in the right direction yet again. It's very close to something much bigger for us, it needs to continue to dig a bit more and I think we could get a solid 3-6" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The convective parameters look great especially the further east that you go. Sounding variables and indices1000-500 mb thick: 5243.79 mFreezing level: 976.83 mb = 170.85 m = 560.51 ftWetbulb zero: 986.89 mb = 86.84 m = 284.90 ftPrecipitable water: 0.40 inchesSfc-500 mean rel hum: 93.05 %Est. max temperature: 5.69 C = 42.24 FSfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 971.50 mb = 212.45 m = 697.01 ft T: -0.30 C700-500 lapse rate: 7.08 C/kmThetaE index: 0.03 C Layer 950.0- 900.0 mbConv cond level (CCL): 916.41 mb = 677.03 m = 2221.20 ft Mean mixing ratio: 3.32 g/kg Conv temperature: 3.36 C = 38.05 FCap Strength: 6.71 CLifted Index: 7.56 C Risk: NoneLifted Index @300 mb: 21.14 CLifted Index @700 mb: 3.99 CShowalter Index: 6.62 C Risk: NoneTotal Totals Index: 50.67 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 25.58 C Cross Totals Index: 25.08 CK Index: 17.57 Risk: < 20 % chance of thunderstormsSweat Index: 110.40 Risk: NoneEnergy Index: 1.77 Risk: None YEH closer to the deepening . will cool there column if there west enough from it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 It's difficult for us to really benefit from a bombing clipper but the gfs is heading in the right direction yet again. It's very close to something much bigger for us, it needs to continue to dig a bit more and I think we could get a solid 3-6" storm. its really difficult to benefit if the NAO - PNA and AO are not in a good position - which they are not although they are moving in that direction after this weekend event ALSO the flow is still too fast with nothing to slow it down so this will be just a very light event ............. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 YEH closer to the deepening . will cool there column if there west enough from it ... What happens with Tuesdays (2/5) system? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 YEH closer to the deepening . will cool there column if there west enough from it ... Someone out east and up into CT could find themselves under some very nice banding should that sounding verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What happens with Tuesdays (2/5) system? Rossi Models just catching onto Sun , get past that one first . the SW is there . 5 days to sort ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What happens with Tuesdays (2/5) system? Rossi It develops a secondary under Long Island and throws some light snow back to us. Then another clipper at the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Ukie digs the vort nicely on today's run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wow the ukie looks kind of awesome. Only concern there would be a further south and east track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Ukie digs the vort nicely on today's run: wow, I think this would def be a hit for us in later panels...digs the trough way deeper than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need the S/W to dig as much as possible in order to develop a nice CCB and system at our latitude/longitude. I would buy a solution like this more than the hope we cash in on a Norlun. Hopefully the flow can slow down a little so whatever storm does develop doesn't get pushed right out to sea. I would like to see that trough axis a little further west, but if we keep trending to a deeper trough, we might luck out. As is it's a lot more favorable for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GGEM likes the Tuesday clipper and has almost nothing for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need the S/W to dig as much as possible in order to develop a nice CCB and system at our latitude/longitude. I would buy a solution like this more than the hope we cash in on a Norlun. Hopefully the flow can slow down a little so whatever storm does develop doesn't get pushed right out to sea. I would like to see that trough axis a little further west, but if we keep trending to a deeper trough, we might luck out. As is it's a lot more favorable for New England. It seems tough with the fast northern branch in a Nina pattern for this to amplify close enough to the coast for other than areas east of the city to really cash in. At least if we had a dominant STJ in Nino year, this would have a better chance of bombing closer to the Delmarva than east of New England. But it would be nice if the Euro ticked a little closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gefs look similar to operational for sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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