bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The Euro has the primary low dying faster. The 6z GFS sounding for ISP on the bufkit has weak omega. So it doesn't ovecome bl warmth. Either way we are still in the transition zone. This would mostly be from Long Island up into New England for the best chance at an accumulating snow in the areas where the Norlun band slows down with the shift to northerly winds. It would probably be a very sharp accumulation gradient from nothing to a localized 3-6 should the high TT's and steep lapse rates verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Here's Islip... 84.png 90.png 96.png Thanks, TT's approaching 50 can be associated with a very heavy but localized snowburst like we saw in PA in 2009. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2009/02_04/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The 00z UKMET at hour 96 doesn't look half bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Thanks, TT's approaching 50 can be associated with a very heavy but localized snowburst like we saw in PA in 2009. Can't post the 96 hour Euro precip map, but it nails LI with a nice band, very Norlun like burst so it matches the SkewT's nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Thanks, TT's approaching 50 can be associated with a very heavy but localized snowburst like we saw in PA in 2009. You see day 9 on the Euro , That cuts like the Lindsay storm did . 1 run and 9 days out , so will ignore but the Euro builds the block .... AND THATS NOT GONA END WINTER ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Be careful with building forecasts based on NORLUNS . they are awful in terms of verifying . They print out 6 inches on one run , and the next run its up over Cape Cod . ( They love NE ) They do happen , but cant take seriously yet . Focus on this SW coming off the Delmarva and potentially putting down a couple inches around the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Only the euro is cold.. Both the nam and gfs are warm and have temps in the upper 30's in the city and low 40's on long island... As of now Upton seems to be goimg the warmer models as they have rain/snow for nyc and the island........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Can't post the 96 hour Euro precip map, but it nails LI with a nice band, very Norlun like burst so it matches the SkewT's nicely Thanks, it will be interesting to see what this looks like within 36 hrs. If those ISP soundings verify that unstable, then the models may be underestimating the convective precip and someone out there up into CT could get a very nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Only the euro is cold.. Both the nam and gfs are warm and have temps in the upper 30's in the city and low 40's on long island... As of now Upton seems to be goimg the warmer models as they have rain/snow for nyc and the island........ The cold spell we just had might help us out somewhat by cooling the water temps, and buying the coastal areas a couple of degrees if we have a southerly flow. The cold regime we're entering into might buy us some wiggle room as well. But as always, I'm very wary of a snow setup on southerly winds. 850 temps are almost irrelevant when the torching comes from 925mb and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Be careful with building forecasts based on NORLUNS . they are awful in terms of verifying . They print out 6 inches on one run , and the next run its up over Cape Cod . ( They love NE ) They do happen , but cant take seriously yet . Focus on this SW coming off the Delmarva and potentially putting down a couple inches around the area . That's why you really need to see the trends hold up as we get closer to the event. The SW coming off the Delmarva will be moving very quickly, so the Norlun verifying is the only chance at something more than a coating to and inch or two. But it would be a Long Island and New England special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Be careful with building forecasts based on NORLUNS . they are awful in terms of verifying . They print out 6 inches on one run , and the next run its up over Cape Cod . ( They love NE ) They do happen , but cant take seriously yet . Focus on this SW coming off the Delmarva and potentially putting down a couple inches around the area . Nobody is forecasting anything, just discussing what the model data shows lol. But yeah, Norluns aren't very common around here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Look at your wind direction that is the issue. The gfs has southerly winds not many snow events occur with southerly winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Only the euro is cold.. Both the nam and gfs are warm and have temps in the upper 30's in the city and low 40's on long island... As of now Upton seems to be goimg the warmer models as they have rain/snow for nyc and the island........Dont focus what the high s thats you see forecast Its snowing Late Sat nite , overnite into Sunday AM And its in the 20`s close to 30 while doing so 1 . The Euro and Ukmet are colder 2. After the precip ends Sunday - temps prob go into mid 30`s thast what u are seeing ( IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPS ) 3 . Its gona have a hard time raining with a SW cutting from the Delmarva to Cape Cod 4 Its not gona be big , but its goin to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Dont focus what the high s thats you see forecast Its snowing Late Sat nite , overnite into Sunday AM And its in the 20`s close to 30 while doing so 1 . The Euro and Ukmet are colder 2. After the precip ends Sunday - temps prob go into mid 30`s thast what u are seeing ( IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPS ) 3 . Its gona have a hard time raining with a SW cutting from the Delmarva to Cape Cod 4 Its not gona be big , but its goin to snow The direction of the S/W isn't the issue. The issue is the primary feature that causes winds to be southerly and torch the surface. Like I said, the water temps I'm sure have cooled down because of the cold shot we had last week, but you're always playing chicken by forecasting snow on a southerly flow for NYC and the coast. Norluns are also very tricky and generally favor places east of us when they do verify-eastern ME and NH were just under a warning for a Norlun that gave them pretty much just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Look at your wind direction that is the issue. The gfs has southerly winds not many snow events occur with southerly winds The Euro has northerly winds on the back side of the trough where the accumulating would occur in its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The Euro has northerly winds on the back side of the trough where the accumulating would occur in its solution. Screen shot 2013-01-31 at 9.26.55 AM.png The euro though has no where near the amount of precip the gfs has either though. I agree though the euro is diffently colder and would be a better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The euro though has no where near the amount of precip the gfs has either though. I agree though the euro is diffently colder and would be a better setup.Tom , Theres a total of 3 SW this week flying through the flow , which one would buy thats buckles and slows the best ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Tom , Theres a total of 3 SW this week flying through the flow , which one would buy thats buckles and slows the best ? imho,i think the one on sunday or tues timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 imho,i think the one on sunday Yeh Bluewave thought than one too last nite . Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeh Bluewave thought than one too last nite . Thx Have to watch the one on tues/wed, euro wants to dig that further south than the sunday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The euro though has no where near the amount of precip the gfs has either though. I agree though the euro is diffently colder and would be a better setup. If the instability in its soundings and track actually verified, we would probably overperform the precip output that it is currently showing. I am guessing LI to CT would be a localized .25-.50 precip should the Norlun verify in the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Have to watch the one on tues/wed, euro wants to dig that further south than the sunday storm DAY 9 Euro , Lindsay ??? kidding day 9 , i never take the back end seriously , but thats a blocky look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks pretty wet. Surface in mid 30's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks cold enough for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 DAY 9 Euro , Lindsay ??? kidding day 9 , i never take the back end seriously , but thats a blocky look well it would be a wet lindsay storm for i95 per euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks pretty wet. Surface in mid 30's? Soundings support snow for NYC and most of LI. The immediate ocean areas have a bit of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Soundings support snow for NYC and most of LI. The immediate ocean areas have a bit of an issue. To bad it's the 84 hr nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 To bad it's the 84 hr nam This is actually exactly what you want to see right now on the NAM at this range, its showing precip back further west and north than the globals and might have BL issues for far eastern zones, we've learned already this winter, no west and north on the NAM at 84 hours probably no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Highest NYC gets on the NAM is 33 degrees and that's at the end. .39" of total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks cold enough for all snow. 850 line is down in NC..lol..but knowing this winter something will screw up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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