bluewave Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 18z 4km NAM took a step toward the globals and shifted the Norlun band a little further east than 12z was showing. 12z 12z.gif 18z Nah, it's fine that's still an area wide .10 to .25. At 15 to 1 not gona change anyone's forecast. The board should b so lucky if those qpf s verified 18z.gif That's only if it stops shifting east tonight and tomorrow. The Euro has the Norlun in the same orientation but a little further east than the NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That's only if it stops shifting east tonight and tomorrow. The Euro has the Norlun in the same orientation but a little further east than the NAM is showing. My call of 1to 2 is totally devoid of any norlun. Dont knw where to buy it. So its not in my estimates. Its based on the deepening .15 at 12 or 15 to 1. I hav pretty much ignored the trough. If it happens its potentially 20 miles wide. So why bother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That's only if it stops shifting east tonight and tomorrow. The Euro has the Norlun in the same orientation but a little further east than the NAM is showing. One can argue the .10 to .25 is more robust on the 18z than the 12z. If u take it at its northern and southern most points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Alberta disappointers are frustrating systems to figure out some much can go wrong compared to going right it is what it is.50yrs in queens and i can count on my hands how many of these things bomb rarely does ma nature align the stars for these situations but what the hell let it stall for no apparant reason and bury us .Seen it before with an easterly fetch just daydreaming peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Last frame of the RAP at 15Z tomorrow AM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Alberta disappointers are frustrating systems to figure out some much can go wrong compared to going right it is what it is.50yrs in queens and i can count on my hands how many of these things bomb rarely does ma nature align the stars for these situations but what the hell let it stall for no apparant reason and bury us .Seen it before with an easterly fetch just daydreaming peace.This is not progged to stall , bomb or bury so you re not gona b disappointed. It's 1 to 2 by most accounts If someone in a narrow window eeks out 3 then there's you re winner on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Alberta disappointers are frustrating systems to figure out some much can go wrong compared to going right it is what it is.50yrs in queens and i can count on my hands how many of these things bomb rarely does ma nature align the stars for these situations but what the hell let it stall for no apparant reason and bury us .Seen it before with an easterly fetch just daydreaming peace. It's tough to get a clipper to slow down and blow up in the right spot. Blocking is absent, so this clipper will be progressive. Moreover, this clipper lacks the upper air dynamics of Friday's system, so one probably won't see snowfall amounts rivaling those in northern Cape May County in NJ yesterday, even where the Norlun trough sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 It's tough to get a clipper to slow down and blow up in the right spot. Blocking is absent, so this clipper will be progressive. Moreover, this clipper lacks the upper air dynamics of Friday's system, so one probably won't see snowfall amounts rivaling those in northern Cape May County in NJ yesterday, even where the Norlun trough sets up. Voice of Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 wow is Mt Holly really all that confident of 3-4 inch amounts like they are forecasting for central jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 18z RGEM has NYC right in the middle of the norlun. Really nice run. yea if u consider .10 nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yea if u consider .10 nice. There is a bullseye around NYC that is more than .10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 wow is Mt Holly really all that confident of 3-4 inch amounts like they are forecasting for central jersey? They explained 20 to 1 ratios showed w 2 similar systems , that's why they r so high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 wow is Mt Holly really all that confident of 3-4 inch amounts like they are forecasting for central jersey? Go in Philly thread and ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Got 1 inch here exactly with .04 water equivalent, for a ratio of 25:1 The Euro had predicted .02 here and the GFS was much higher than that until the day of, when it finally came down to .06. Got right in between those two, but the Euro was certainly the closest of all the models. The NAM was out to lunch until the very last minute, and even then was too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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