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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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The 18z 4km NAM took a step toward the globals and shifted the Norlun band a little further

east than 12z was showing.

 

12z

 

attachicon.gif12z.gif

 

 

18z

 Nah, it's fine that's still an area wide .10 to .25. At 15 to 1 not gona change anyone's forecast. The board should b so lucky if those qpf s verified

attachicon.gif18z.gif

 

That's only if it stops shifting east tonight and tomorrow. The Euro has the Norlun in the same orientation but a little

further east than the NAM is showing.

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That's only if it stops shifting east tonight and tomorrow. The Euro has the Norlun in the same orientation but a little

further east than the NAM is showing.

My call of 1to 2 is totally devoid of any norlun. Dont knw where to buy it. So its not in my estimates. Its based on the deepening .15 at 12 or 15 to 1. I hav pretty much ignored the trough. If it happens its potentially 20 miles wide. So why bother
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That's only if it stops shifting east tonight and tomorrow. The Euro has the Norlun in the same orientation but a little

further east than the NAM is showing.

One can argue the .10 to .25 is more robust on the 18z than the 12z. If u take it at its northern and southern most points
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Alberta disappointers are frustrating systems to figure out some much  can go wrong compared to going right it is what it is.50yrs in  queens and i can count on my hands how many of these things bomb rarely does ma nature align the stars for these situations but what the hell let it stall for no apparant reason and bury us .Seen it before with an easterly fetch just daydreaming peace.

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Alberta disappointers are frustrating systems to figure out some much can go wrong compared to going right it is what it is.50yrs in queens and i can count on my hands how many of these things bomb rarely does ma nature align the stars for these situations but what the hell let it stall for no apparant reason and bury us .Seen it before with an easterly fetch just daydreaming peace.

This is not progged to stall , bomb or bury so you re not gona b disappointed. It's 1 to 2 by most accounts

If someone in a narrow window eeks out 3 then there's you re winner on the board

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Alberta disappointers are frustrating systems to figure out some much  can go wrong compared to going right it is what it is.50yrs in  queens and i can count on my hands how many of these things bomb rarely does ma nature align the stars for these situations but what the hell let it stall for no apparant reason and bury us .Seen it before with an easterly fetch just daydreaming peace.

 

It's tough to get a clipper to slow down and blow up in the right spot. Blocking is absent, so this clipper will be progressive. Moreover, this clipper lacks the upper air dynamics of Friday's system, so one probably won't see snowfall amounts rivaling those in northern Cape May County in NJ yesterday, even where the Norlun trough sets up.

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It's tough to get a clipper to slow down and blow up in the right spot. Blocking is absent, so this clipper will be progressive. Moreover, this clipper lacks the upper air dynamics of Friday's system, so one probably won't see snowfall amounts rivaling those in northern Cape May County in NJ yesterday, even where the Norlun trough sets up.

 

Voice of Truth.

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Got 1 inch here exactly with .04 water equivalent, for a ratio of 25:1

 

The Euro had predicted .02 here and the GFS was much higher than that until the day of, when it finally came down to .06.  Got right in between those two, but the Euro was certainly the closest of all the models.  The NAM was out to lunch until the very last minute, and even then was too high. 

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