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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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NAM has been pretty awful here as well, as have the SREFs over the last two or three weeks..the ARW members specifically have been over amplified and out to lunch with several systems.

With the NAM, RGEM, and SREFs in agreement ... it definitely makes things pretty interesting as we're coming down to the wire here...especially with the globals not wanting to have any part of the inverted trough at all.

18z NAM continues to have the norlun right over NYC.

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Short range models pretty much in agreement of between .15 to .20 in a line from Monmouth county through the city and into western Nassau. At 15 to 1 you can see how 2 to 3 can fall in those spots. But most places look to b around the 1 inch max area. there is gona be a steep gradient tomorrow between happy people and miserable ones

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The 18z 4km NAM took a step toward the globals and shifted the Norlun band a little further

east than 12z was showing.

 

12z

 

attachicon.gifhttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=87368'>12z.gif

 

 

18z

 Nah, it's fine that's still an area wide .10 to .25. At 15 to 1 not gona change anyone's forecast. The board should b so lucky if those qpf s verified

attachicon.gif18z.gif

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