ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 NAM has been pretty awful here as well, as have the SREFs over the last two or three weeks..the ARW members specifically have been over amplified and out to lunch with several systems. With the NAM, RGEM, and SREFs in agreement ... it definitely makes things pretty interesting as we're coming down to the wire here...especially with the globals not wanting to have any part of the inverted trough at all. 18z NAM continues to have the norlun right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 15z SREF Mean has .25" qpf > over Central and Eastern LI. .10-.25 everywhere else. The members are split where the heaviest bands are. Some far south as Central NJ and others over Eastern Li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Nam .10+ for city and north central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 15z SREF Mean has .25" qpf > over Central and Eastern LI. .10-.25 everywhere else. It's about .20" for NYC. .10"+ for NYC from hours 0-24 and hours 24-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Short range models pretty much in agreement of between .15 to .20 in a line from Monmouth county through the city and into western Nassau. At 15 to 1 you can see how 2 to 3 can fall in those spots. But most places look to b around the 1 inch max area. there is gona be a steep gradient tomorrow between happy people and miserable ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 This run is about .20" for NYC on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 new point and click for sw nassau 1-2 tonight with "less than one inch" tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Mt. Hollys latest has a lot of 2-4s over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Mt. Hollys latest has a lot of 2-4s over the area With 700mb temps of -15 to -20C its not completely impossible they're banking on high ratios once again. I wouldn't have thought we could do better than 12:1 a couple of days ago but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Kinda of strange mount holly going with 2-4 and a wwa for most of there area except nw and Upton basically going with 1-2 and no wwa for obvious reasons..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 This is the type of event the high res WRF was developed for....let's see how well it does. Hopefully everyone gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Kinda of strange mount holly going with 2-4 and a wwa for most of there area except nw and Upton basically going with 1-2 and no wwa for obvious reasons..... I agree with Upton in this case, you deal with the possible norlun as it becomes more clear tonight/early AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Coating to 2" is my guess for TTN tonight into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Obviously late to the discussion, but I see that Upton upped the snowfall totals back up to close to 3" after lowering them this AM. Cool...that'll be a nice, pretty, and manageable snowfall if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 18z 4km NAM took a step toward the globals and shifted the Norlun band a little further east than 12z was showing. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Thats not good The 18z 4km NAM took a step toward the globals and shifted the Norlun band a little further east than 12z was showing. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I mean that's pretty similar run to run there. I wouldn't exactly call that a shift towards the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Anybody know what the gfs ensembles showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Anybody know what the gfs ensembles showed? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif Looks pretty damn good all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Anybody know what the gfs ensembles showed? .10"+ areawide. .25"+ Nassau County and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif looks like 3" out here, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 What does the 18z GFS look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 What does the 18z GFS look like? Unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 What does the 18z GFS look like? NYC - 0.05" through 1AM, 0.03" 1AM-7AM, 0.02" 7AM-1PM, 0.02" 1PM-7PM ISP - 0.05" through 1AM, 0.06" 1AM-7AM, 0.03" 7AM-1PM, 0.04" 1PM-7PM, 0.01" after 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 What does the 18z GFS look like? .10"+ from Newark East. .20"+ from Suffolk County east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 NYC - 0.05" through 1AM, 0.03" 1AM-7AM, 0.02" 7AM-1PM, 0.02" 1PM-7PM ISP - 0.05" through 1AM, 0.06" 1AM-7AM, 0.03" 7AM-1PM, 0.04" 1PM-7PM, 0.01" after 7PM Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 18z RGEM has NYC right in the middle of the norlun. Really nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The 18z 4km NAM took a step toward the globals and shifted the Norlun band a little further east than 12z was showing. 12z http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=87368'>12z.gif 18z Nah, it's fine that's still an area wide .10 to .25. At 15 to 1 not gona change anyone's forecast. The board should b so lucky if those qpf s verified 18z.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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