Isotherm Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Based on the current modeling I like 1-2" for most of the area with an isolated potential of 2-4" over N Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, and eastern Somerset counties in NJ. But that area of potential higher amounts can shift dramatically even at the stage we are at now. It'll be a nowcasting event for sure. Agree except I'd play it a bit safer, going with Coating-1" areawide with the norlun bullseye of 2-4" wherever that occurs, which as you noted will be nowcast. Highest threat for 2-4" at this stage appears to be SW LI and the CNJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 that linked zone forecast was issued at 12:30pm,,,, pretty much as up to date as you can get. they have 2-4" over the northern half on NJ, pretty much......... but with only a 60% chance of precip.... and as you said, no advisory. Actually, they must have just updated it, because it said 9:30 am when I posted it - makes more sense now, though. Would love to see 2-4", but model support for that right now isn't the strongest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 What's the timing on this snow? this is mt. holly's zone forecast for new brunswick..... .TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH.LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMINGEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 On the euro, never. On the nam/rgem, 10pm to 7am from clipper. And then 7am to 1pm tomorrow for whoever gets the norlun. Thanks Alex. Going into city tonight. Should be wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 this is mt. holly's zone forecast for new brunswick..... .TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES Thanks. Would be wonderful, but as a few have said model support is sketchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 .10" line starts from ISP and east on the euro. That generally agrees with the GFS idea of keeping the Nurlun further east. the NAM has been too far west with the heaviest precip several times this winter including the late December storm. Even on the morning of the storm it was too wet from the city on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I could buy the Euro's nothing on the norlun but not overnight, too many models that have done a good job recently show a period of snow overnight including the SPC WRF which has been very good and almost always is with these snow events. Euro shows overnight with .02-03 for most, except at Islip it has .06 overnight. The Norlun only hits long island and some eastern areas with another .01-.03 during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. That is it from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah. Euro is almost nothing for NYC. Only .03" ISP is .09"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 So what's the Euro for the rest of next week and after? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Would love to see 2-4", but model support for that right now isn't the strongest... maybe they were spooked by what happened in far south jersey yesterday. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 So what's the Euro for the rest of next week and after? Rossi Light snow Tuesday night from another clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 0.2" on GFS, 0.1" on the Euro, ~0.13" on the NAM, ~0.16" on the RGEM for Islip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Light snow Tuesday night from another clipper Yeah. .10"-.15" of precip for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 0.2" on GFS, 0.1" on the Euro, ~0.13" on the NAM, ~0.16" on the RGEM for Islip. Actually, the Euro has .11 at ISP, only it is over a 30 hr time period. It may all melt before it ever even accumulates with that rate of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro is the driest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah. .10"-.15" of precip for the area. If it follows the pattern this winter, by the time it gets here the model will show .01-.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Actually, the Euro has .11 at ISP, only it is over a 30 hr time period. It may all melt before it ever even accumulates with that rate of snowfall. This was always progged to be long duration event and surface temps won't really go above freezing, 33 at most. I was going by what others were saying the Euro was showing, being off by a hundredth of an inch isn't a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 There are some 15 dbz radar echos about to cross the Delaware River and over my location. I will be looking with eagle eyes to see if I can see a snowflake. Maybe someone should create an observation thread for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 to the NAM and RGEM's credit they have shown very similar soloutions with regards to tomorrow. Im skeptical with them being even half right, so well see. The middlesex and monmouth county NJ crew will let everyone know if there right or totally off their rockers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the fishes get the norlun instead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Mt Holly is either going to be praised for scoring a coup or horribly bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 All the negativity -it's only snow! We get a chance for 4 months every year Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 There are some 15 dbz radar echos about to cross the Delaware River and over my location. I will be looking with eagle eyes to see if I can see a snowflake. Maybe someone should create an observation thread for this system. There are some 15 dbz radar echos about to cross the Delaware River and over my location. I will be looking with eagle eyes to see if I can see a snowflake. Maybe someone should create an observation thread for this system.Good idea on the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That generally agrees with the GFS idea of keeping the Nurlun further east. the NAM has been too far west with the heaviest precip several times this winter including the late December storm. Even on the morning of the storm it was too wet from the city on west. FWIW, the higher res models like the WRFs (NAM etc) have been trash all winter in the Midwest, GFS has been a very good performer a few days out, actually better than the Euro on multiple occasions. Can't discount the higher res models, but I'd be wary of them given past performance. Hope this little event does overperform here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Srefs have .10"+ through hour 24. Then another .10"+ from NYC and East hours 24-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 FWIW, the higher res models like the WRFs (NAM etc) and the RGEM have been trash all winter in the Midwest, GFS has been a very good performer a few days out, actually better than the Euro on multiple occasions. Can't discount the higher res models, but I'd be wary of them given past performance. Rgem has been phenomenal in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Rgem has been phenomenal in this area. Might have been a little hasty in discounting the RGEM, that was more of a NAM/WRF directed comment. From what I can recall, in northern IL and NW Indiana, the only setups the NAM has handled well have been lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Might have been a little hasty in discounting the RGEM, that was more of a NAM/WRF directed comment. From what I can recall, in northern IL and NW Indiana, the only setups the NAM has handled well have been lake effect snow. NAM has been pretty awful here as well, as have the SREFs over the last two or three weeks..the ARW members specifically have been over amplified and out to lunch with several systems. With the NAM, RGEM, and SREFs in agreement ... it definitely makes things pretty interesting as we're coming down to the wire here...especially with the globals not wanting to have any part of the inverted trough at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 NAM has been pretty awful here as well, as have the SREFs over the last two or three weeks..the ARW members specifically have been over amplified and out to lunch with several systems. With the NAM, RGEM, and SREFs in agreement ... it definitely makes things pretty interesting as we're coming down to the wire here...especially with the globals not wanting to have any part of the inverted trough at all. It seems like the NAM's problem has been to be too far west with the heavier precipitation recently like during the late December storm. It was too wet right up until the 12z run even when the radar trends were further east than it had been showing. It may be that the NAM is correct in seeing the Norlun band tomorrow with .25 in or higher precip, but the globals may be signaling that the heaviest snow will be further east than the NAM is showing. It will be interesting too see the actual radar trends tomorrow to know which idea is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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