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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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Based on the current modeling I like 1-2" for most of the area with an isolated potential of 2-4" over N Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, and eastern Somerset counties in NJ. But that area of potential higher amounts can shift dramatically even at the stage we are at now. It'll be a nowcasting event for sure.

 

 

Agree except I'd play it a bit safer, going with Coating-1" areawide with the norlun bullseye of 2-4" wherever that occurs, which as you noted will be nowcast. Highest threat for 2-4" at this stage appears to be SW LI and the CNJ coast.

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that linked zone forecast was issued at 12:30pm,,,, pretty much as up to date as you can get.  they have 2-4" over the northern half on NJ, pretty much......... but with only a 60% chance of precip.... and as you said, no advisory.

 

Actually, they must have just updated it, because it said 9:30 am when I posted it - makes more sense now, though.  Would love to see 2-4", but model support for that right now isn't the strongest...

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What's the timing on this snow?

 

this is mt. holly's zone forecast for new brunswick.....

 

.TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH.LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMINGEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
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this is mt. holly's zone forecast for new brunswick.....

.TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

Thanks. Would be wonderful, but as a few have said model support is sketchy

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.10" line starts from ISP and east on the euro.

 

That generally agrees with the GFS idea of keeping the Nurlun further east. the NAM has been too far west with

the heaviest precip several times this winter including the late December storm. Even on the morning of the

storm it was too wet from the city on west.

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I could buy the Euro's nothing on the norlun but not overnight, too many models that have done a good job recently show a period of snow overnight including the SPC WRF which has been very good and almost always is with these snow events.

 

Euro shows overnight with .02-03 for most, except at Islip it has .06 overnight.  The Norlun only hits long island and some eastern areas with another .01-.03 during the afternoon and evening tomorrow.  That is it from the Euro. 

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Actually, the Euro has .11 at ISP, only it is over a 30 hr time period.  It may all melt before it ever even accumulates with that rate of snowfall.

This was always progged to be long duration event and surface temps won't really go above freezing, 33 at most. I was going by what others were saying the Euro was showing, being off by a hundredth of an inch isn't a big deal.

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There are some 15 dbz radar echos about to cross the Delaware River and over my location.  I will be looking with eagle eyes to see if I can see a snowflake.  Maybe someone should create an observation thread for this system.
There are some 15 dbz radar echos about to cross the Delaware River and over my location.  I will be looking with eagle eyes to see if I can see a snowflake.  Maybe someone should create an observation thread for this system.
Good idea on the obs thread.
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That generally agrees with the GFS idea of keeping the Nurlun further east. the NAM has been too far west with

the heaviest precip several times this winter including the late December storm. Even on the morning of the

storm it was too wet from the city on west.

FWIW, the higher res models like the WRFs (NAM etc) have been trash all winter in the Midwest, GFS has been a very good performer a few days out, actually better than the Euro on multiple occasions. Can't discount the higher res models, but I'd be wary of them given past performance. Hope this little event does overperform here though.
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FWIW, the higher res models like the WRFs (NAM etc) and the RGEM have been trash all winter in the Midwest, GFS has been a very good performer a few days out, actually better than the Euro on multiple occasions. Can't discount the higher res models, but I'd be wary of them given past performance.

Rgem has been phenomenal in this area.

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Might have been a little hasty in discounting the RGEM, that was more of a NAM/WRF directed comment. From what I can recall, in northern IL and NW Indiana, the only setups the NAM has handled well have been lake effect snow.

 

NAM has been pretty awful here as well, as have the SREFs over the last two or three weeks..the ARW members specifically have been over amplified and out to lunch with several systems.

 

With the NAM, RGEM, and SREFs in agreement ... it definitely makes things pretty interesting as we're coming down to the wire here...especially with the globals not wanting to have any part of the inverted trough at all.

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NAM has been pretty awful here as well, as have the SREFs over the last two or three weeks..the ARW members specifically have been over amplified and out to lunch with several systems.

 

With the NAM, RGEM, and SREFs in agreement ... it definitely makes things pretty interesting as we're coming down to the wire here...especially with the globals not wanting to have any part of the inverted trough at all.

 

It seems like the NAM's problem has been to be too far west with the heavier precipitation recently like during the late December 

storm. It was too wet right up until the 12z run even when the radar trends were further east than it had been showing. It may be

that the NAM is correct in seeing the Norlun band tomorrow with .25 in or higher precip, but the globals may be signaling that

the heaviest snow will be further east than the NAM is showing. It will be interesting too see the actual radar trends tomorrow

to know which idea is correct.

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