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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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Still has a norlun but it's weak and over eastern LI which is fine by me. GFS probably not going to show much with low resolution.

It could end up over Eastern LI, or over NJ, or even not at all. That's what's so tricky about these. Norluns are really for nowcasting. I'm starting to lean towards there being one somewhere vs. nowhere, but it's by no means a done deal.

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1-2" of that run for most.

As Snowgooose just mentioned have to watch that heavier area just south and east of us plus have to consider the possibility of 15:1 ratios - and as Upton mentioned in their morning AFD this will be a nowcasting event because of what i just mentioned

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What last event? 1/25?

 

The models may have shown little precip but totals ranged from 1/2" to 3" of snow. The liquid equivalents were higher the model output.

 

And yesterday in SNJ, models were low on precip but Cape May had around 8" of snow.

 

I don't remember, the one with the supposed Norlun over Northern NJ.  Most of us here got nothing but a couple of flurries while the NAM was burying us right up till show time.

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What last event? 1/25?

 

The models may have shown little precip but totals ranged from 1/2" to 3" of snow. The liquid equivalents were higher the model output.

 

And yesterday in SNJ, models were low on precip but Cape May had around 8" of snow.

I think he could be talking about the norlun that busted up in SNE 2-3 weeks back, the GFS even showed that one but it ultimately never developed.  I think that one may have been botched a bit because the interaction with the primary low down in the MA sort of evolved a bit differently than was expected and continued on down the line.

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I don't remember, the one with the supposed Norlun over Northern NJ.  Most of us here got nothing but a couple of flurries while the NAM was burying us right up till show time.

I think you're referencing the 1/21 event. That wasn't bad event. Some banding in that event gave me nearly 3" of snow. Martha's Vineyard got 6" of snow from that. Most people didn't see much of anything with that, primarily because the weak norlun didn't begin to develop until it was over LI. It hit SNE for the most part, but it was a big bust for most because of the placement of it. That is a big factor this time, where and when does the norlun set up, mostly a nowcasting event.  

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I don't remember, the one with the supposed Norlun over Northern NJ.  Most of us here got nothing but a couple of flurries while the NAM was burying us right up till show time.

Thats the same one that ultimately got modeled well north over SNE by the time we were inside 24-36 hours, I think it was shown over this area but that was 2-4 days out.

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why is there so little discussion on the board...I see Mt Holly is calling for 1-2 inches tonight, I thought this was supposed to be after midnight into sunday and then another shot on Sunday, Mt holly was sort of sketchy on the sunday event in the disco...as I snowplow need to get a better understanding of the timeframe here....and how much snow potential. Shocked with all the discussions about storm 5-10 days away that two seperate snow events are being ignored

 

With all do respect if you drive a snowplow I would invest in a good private forecast service.  These are very tricky forecast situations while most on the board do an excellent job posting info and share ideas unless you have a good understanding on operational meteorology this board for a snow plow operator can be confusing,  Good Luck.     

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If you look at hour 42 on the 00z ecm its very similar to the nam just about 75 miles east.  Either way its looking like a coating to 2 inches with some isolated reports of 3 or more maybe where/if any enhancement from the inverted/norlun trough occur.  If they do I would say its over LI.

 

 

mt. holly going with 2-4" for parts of monmouth and middlesex county.

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mt. holly going with 2-4" for parts of monmouth and middlesex county.

Interesting.  In their text products/point-click forecasts, they're going for an area-wide 2-4", but there's nothing indicating that much elsewhere, i.e., in any updated HWO/SPS/AFD or even a WWAdvisory.  You might think they're catching up, but the text products were put out at 9:30 am.  Hmmmm...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=ZFP&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

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Based on the current modeling I like 1-2" for most of the area with an isolated potential of 2-4" over N Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, and eastern Somerset counties in NJ. But that area of potential higher amounts can shift dramatically even at the stage we are at now. It'll be a nowcasting event for sure.

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Interesting.  In their text products/point-click forecasts, they're going for an area-wide 2-4", but there's nothing indicating that much elsewhere, i.e., in any updated HWO/SPS/AFD or even a WWAdvisory.  You might think they're catching up, but the text products were put out at 9:30 am.  Hmmmm...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=ZFP&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

that linked zone forecast was issued at 12:30pm,,,, pretty much as up to date as you can get.  they have 2-4" over the northern half on NJ, pretty much......... but with only a 60% chance of precip.... and as you said, no advisory.

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On the euro, never.

On the nam/rgem, 10pm to 7am from clipper. And then 7am to 1pm tomorrow for whoever gets norlun.

I could buy the Euro's nothing on the norlun but not overnight, too many models that have done a good job recently show a period of snow overnight including the SPC WRF which has been very good and almost always is with these snow events.

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