February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion

[Weathergun]

12z NAM has 0.25"> qpf for the lower five boroughs and immediate surroundings.

 

[RU848789]

6z RGEM isn't bad for most interests. Heres accumulated snowfall in mm.

 

Isn't that actually accumulated snowfall in cm?  That would put most of our area in the 0,25-0.50 cm area, which is 1-2". 

[WintersGrasp]

Such a sharp cutoff that the 18z run we will probably have closer to 0.05"

[Edge Weather]

it doesn't go by the 850mb its the 700mb temps.. they are around -15  id say around 15:1 maybe a little higher.

 

Thank you.

[Edge Weather]

Isn't that actually accumulated snowfall in cm?  That would put most of our area in the 0,25-0.50 cm area, which is 1-2". 

Yes, basically it more or less agrees with the NAM, just a bit different in placement, but very close. 

[winterwarlock]

why is there so little discussion on the board...I see Mt Holly is calling for 1-2 inches tonight, I thought this was supposed to be after midnight into sunday and then another shot on Sunday, Mt holly was sort of sketchy on the sunday event in the disco...as I snowplow need to get a better understanding of the timeframe here....and how much snow potential. Shocked with all the discussions about storm 5-10 days away that two seperate snow events are being ignored

 

[Edge Weather]

why is there so little discussion on the board...I see Mt Holly is calling for 1-2 inches tonight, I thought this was supposed to be after midnight into sunday and then another shot on Sunday, Mt holly was sort of sketchy on the sunday event in the disco...as I snowplow need to get a better understanding of the timeframe here....and how much snow potential. Shocked with all the discussions about storm 5-10 days away that two seperate snow events are being ignored

 

 

Because there is a real chance we all just get a dusting.  If the NAM is right we all get like 3 inches.  So there you have it.  I guess no one trusts the NAM, with good reason. The European model has us just getting flurries. The NAM royally screwed up the last one of these and the EC kicked it's behind, and the GFS did much better with the last one also. 

[Allsnow]

12z NAM has 0.25"> qpf for the lower five boroughs and immediate surroundings.

12znamp24_NE036.gif

Edison jackpot lock it up lol

[bluewave]

4km NAM has strong banding just south of Long Island with .25-.50. Probably one of the

strongest Norlun signals in a while, but we need the band to migrate about 25 miles north

for LI to get into the heavier stuff.

 

 

 

 

[TWCCraig]

Because there is a real chance we all just get a dusting.  If the NAM is right we all get like 3 inches.  So there you have it.  I guess no one trusts the NAM, with good reason. The European model has us just getting flurries. The NAM royally screwed up the last one of these and the EC kicked it's behind, and the GFS did much better with the last one also. 

 

Which event did the EC do better than the NAM? I don't remember. But now the NAM has backup from the GFS, CMC, most of the global models. The euro has been bad inside 48hrs this winter, I certainly don't trust it in this time frame.

[PB GFI]

4km NAM has strong banding just south of Long Island with .25-.50. Probably one of the

strongest Norlun signals in a while, but we need the band to migrate about 25 miles north

for LI to get into the heavier stuff.

 

ptot32.gif

 

4km NAM has strong banding just south of Long Island with .25-.50. Probably one of the

strongest Norlun signals in a while, but we need the band to migrate about 25 miles north

for LI to get into the heavier stuff.

 

ptot32.gif

Right through Colts Neck , Can i pay to lock that up right now ?

[EasternLI]

I want to feel good about this, I really do, but I can't. Need to get this coastal going quicker, but with the fast flow, I'm very doubtful. Forget about the norlun, I'll believe that when it's actually happening

[PB GFI]

BY LATER THIS EVENING THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LAYERS OF THE COLUMN SHOULD BE NEARLY SATURATED TO ALLOW THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN. THERE IS STILL SOME LOWER LEVEL
DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE DISPLACED AS MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THIS
LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WAA AND OVER RUNNING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR
FROM 00 TO 06Z TONIGHT. THERE IS DECENT OMEGA WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAK. A
STRONGER AND MORE ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY DIVES TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT AND HELPS TO TRANSFER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE NEGATIVE ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA TONIGHT AS
THIS SYSTEM(S) STREAMS BY TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.

Think 2 inches in most places are likely - If the GFS agrees with the NAM and brings the .25 line to where the NAM did if at 15 to 1

They may bump it up a bit .

[Isotherm]

Right through Colts Neck , Can i pay to lock that up right now ?

 

 

Yeah Monmouth jackpot - that's autowin right there.

 

I think the best call right now is C-1" areawide, with an extra 2" for the select few on the board that get to experience the norlun feature. However, these are notoriously difficult to nail down until show time, so we'll have to hold our 'congrats Monmouth' until the nowcasting period.

[Edge Weather]

Which event did the EC do better than the NAM? I don't remember. But now the NAM has backup from the GFS, CMC, most of the global models. The euro has been bad inside 48hrs this winter, I certainly don't trust it in this time frame.

 

The EC has the best accuracy scores of all the models inside of 5 days and the UKMET is second, and neither one of these models shows much of anything for us with this storm, the fourth and fifth place models also don't have anything much with this storm.  The NAM did terribly with the last Norlun trough that did not form here at all.  It kept on saying we would get hit hard and we got nothing.  The EC had nothing with that storm, and the GFS had basically nothing as well.  We got nothing while the NAM was telling people in Northern NJ they would get hit hard.  It did hit eastern Long Island, but all the models showed that.  This time though the GFS and the RGRM are on the side of the NAM with this feature, so this does get me interested, but all the other models show basically nothing still.  Sure I am hoping very much that the NAM, RGEM, and GFS are correct, but we shall see.  It sure would be nice to have the number 1 and 2 models on our side though.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

4km NAM has strong banding just south of Long Island with .25-.50. Probably one of the

strongest Norlun signals in a while, but we need the band to migrate about 25 miles north

for LI to get into the heavier stuff.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa 25 miles north? Lets keep it right where shes at. Hahaha

ptot32.gif

[SACRUS]

The EC has the best accuracy scores of all the models inside of 5 days and the UKMET is second, and neither one of these models shows much of anything for us with this storm, the fourth and fifth place models also don't have anything much with this storm.  The NAM did terribly with the last Norlun trough that did not form here at all.  It kept on saying we would get hit hard and we got nothing.  The EC had nothing with that storm, and the GFS had basically nothing as well.  We got nothing while the NAM was telling people in Northern NJ they would get hit hard.  It did hit eastern Long Island, but all the models showed that.  This time though the GFS and the RGRM are on the side of the NAM with this feature, so this does get me interested, but all the other models show basically nothing still.  Sure I am hoping very much that the NAM, RGEM, and GFS are correct, but we shall see.  It sure would be nice to have the number 1 and 2 models on our side though.

 

If you look at hour 42 on the 00z ecm its very similar to the nam just about 75 miles east.  Either way its looking like a coating to 2 inches with some isolated reports of 3 or more maybe where/if any enhancement from the inverted/norlun trough occur.  If they do I would say its over LI.

[PB GFI]

Yeah Monmouth jackpot - that's autowin right there.

 

I think the best call right now is C-1" areawide, with an extra 2" for the select few on the board that get to experience the norlun feature. However, these are notoriously difficult to nail down until show time, so we'll have to hold our 'congrats Monmouth' until the nowcasting period.

What  I  have thought all along was 1 to 2  with some areas getting 3 . I havent bought the Norlun all week because its just modeled so poorly , Just go back 2 weeks ago on the NE  coast as it  was modeled for 5 straight days there ( after 1 nites run accross LI )  Tauton was forced to put up WSW with 6 - 12 expected , they got 2 .

Now if you can get a little deepening with favorable 700 mb temps - people going to squeeze out 15 to 1 ratios , what the QPF is ?

.10 - .15 - .20 - .25 ? Hard time figuring out , what where .  

[Edge Weather]

The 14z RAP just came in and has the Norlun developing over Central Long Island, not Northern NJ or NYC

[PB GFI]

The EC has the best accuracy scores of all the models inside of 5 days and the UKMET is second, and neither one of these models shows much of anything for us with this storm, the fourth and fifth place models also don't have anything much with this storm.  The NAM did terribly with the last Norlun trough that did not form here at all.  It kept on saying we would get hit hard and we got nothing.  The EC had nothing with that storm, and the GFS had basically nothing as well.  We got nothing while the NAM was telling people in Northern NJ they would get hit hard.  It did hit eastern Long Island, but all the models showed that.  This time though the GFS and the RGRM are on the side of the NAM with this feature, so this does get me interested, but all the other models show basically nothing still.  Sure I am hoping very much that the NAM, RGEM, and GFS are correct, but we shall see.  It sure would be nice to have the number 1 and 2 models on our side though.

Just look at the Radar off to you`re West  2- 3 went thru Chicago last nite . the downsloping will hurt a bit as it comes East , but there could be enough deepening as it hits the coast , and by that I mean 1 to 2 .

Not goin to be flurries , but you`re not goin to be stranded either .

[TWCCraig]

The EC has the best accuracy scores of all the models inside of 5 days and the UKMET is second, and neither one of these models shows much of anything for us with this storm, the fourth and fifth place models also don't have anything much with this storm.  The NAM did terribly with the last Norlun trough that did not form here at all.  It kept on saying we would get hit hard and we got nothing.  The EC had nothing with that storm, and the GFS had basically nothing as well.  We got nothing while the NAM was telling people in Northern NJ they would get hit hard.  It did hit eastern Long Island, but all the models showed that.  This time though the GFS and the RGRM are on the side of the NAM with this feature, so this does get me interested, but all the other models show basically nothing still.  Sure I am hoping very much that the NAM, RGEM, and GFS are correct, but we shall see.  It sure would be nice to have the number 1 and 2 models on our side though.

 

Some recent examples of it now preforming well inside 48 hrs:

 

1/18/13 - Euro gave everyone around 1/4" of precip, mostly everyone didn't see a flake

1/21/13 - Euro gave very little to nothing for everyone, while some areas did get that, some areas saw up to 4" of snow

1/25/13 - Euro was pretty dry for everyone, UKMET had some precip over the area, contrary to the Euro

12/29/12 - Euro was way too cold in the boundary layer

12/26/12 - Euro also too cold in the BL

 

The Euro is a damn good model, but there have been some recent examples where the american models did better inside 48hrs compared to the Euro.

[Edge Weather]

Some recent examples of it now preforming well inside 48 hrs:

 

1/18/13 - Euro gave everyone around 1/4" of precip, mostly everyone didn't see a flake

1/21/13 - Euro gave very little to nothing for everyone, while some areas did get that, some areas saw up to 4" of snow

1/25/13 - Euro was pretty dry for everyone, UKMET had some precip over the area, contrary to the Euro

12/29/12 - Euro was way too cold in the boundary layer

12/26/12 - Euro also too cold in the BL

 

The Euro is a damn good model, but there have been some recent examples where the american models did better inside 48hrs compared to the Euro.

I know, I am hoping too, but I doubt our models are correct, and it looks to me like the GFS just took a really bad turn.

[TWCCraig]

I know, I am hoping too, but I doubt our models are correct, and it looks to me like the GFS just took a really bad turn.

Still has a norlun but it's weak and over eastern LI which is fine by me. GFS probably not going to show much with low resolution.

[Weathergun]

The 12z 4km NAM Bufkit for the  Atlantic Highlands tomorrow. It has high low-level omega and moisture. With about 4.0" of snow out of that band alone, using a 15:1 ratio. Total QPF was about. 30":

 

[Edge Weather]

Still has a norlun but it's weak and over eastern LI which is fine by me. GFS probably not going to show much with low resolution.

 

Many of us made similar comments about the low resolution with the last Norlun.  I am not falling for it this time.  The models that showed basically nothing with the last one were the models that were correct.

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM also shows the norlun in that same area near Sandy Hook south of NYC offshore.  Its possible that the precip would ultimately wind up more inland if the trough formed because you get the frictional land convergence, the models likely pick up on the atmospheric factor but don't see that.  The RGEM also has more snow overnight still from 03-09Z, its been consistent on that idea.

[NEG NAO]

Edison jackpot lock it up lol

yes the 6Z NAM looks good for NYC and immediate surrounding areas - have to take this serious now since the accuracy of the models is increasing as we get very close - also the RGEM has to be watched closely since that is a very accurate close range model that predicted the heavier snows in southern most NJ yesterday

[TWCCraig]

Many of us made similar comments about the low resolution with the last Norlun.  I am not falling for it this time.  The models that showed basically nothing with the last one were the models that were correct.

 

What last event? 1/25?

 

The models may have shown little precip but totals ranged from 1/2" to 3" of snow. The liquid equivalents were higher the model output.

 

And yesterday in SNJ, models were low on precip but Cape May had around 8" of snow.

[ag3]

Trying to figure out why people use anything but the rgem. Especially for this type of event.

Total precip from today's 12z run:

[TWCCraig]

Trying to figure out why people use anything but the rgem. Especially for this type of event. Total precip from today's 12z run: 

 

1-2" of that run for most.