SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z rgem has the norlun over NYC Does Stamford get in on the Norlun fun on the RGEM? looks like we are right at the edge of it on the NAM, which is a good thing as they are often more NE than forecast. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Notice too how the GFS continues to "lose" the ensuing clippers after this one...this is a good point Steve D and Larry C I think have made before that when you have fast flow you'll tend to notice the decreased QPF as you get inside 5 days, very good rule that always works. It been tough to get a storm to actually deliver more precip over the last year or so. Even the SNJ jackpot this morning matches the long term pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ^^^ I have noticed that. It stinks because the Tuesday threat was looking good until yesterday. they always look good 120 hrs in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 they always look good 120 hrs in advance In previous years, storms didn't really disappear like they are doing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Someone must have mentioned this already -- if the SuperBowl was in NJ this year, we'd be talking snow at kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Sref's have the norlun signal across the area. Gets the 0.25 line to about NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Sref's have the norlun signal across the area. Gets the 0.25 line to about NYC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Congrats LI on the ARW http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Congrats LI on the ARW http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 That's .50+ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Nam is pretty nice for NJ at hour 27 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_027_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Nam is pretty nice for NJ at hour 27 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_027_sim_radar.gif That would be quite a bump in speed...arriving prior to midnite. It seems there is going to be a period of precip from the clipper energy overnite tomorrow night. Followed by a period of light snow through the day, then the Norlun possibility from the developing offshore system later in the day Sunday. Anyone else getting that read out of this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 NAM looks ugly. Not worrying bout any models though, going to be a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 #winter2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 0z Nam has a weak norlun over NYC. It has moderate snow in SNJ-CNJ. Nam is 0.10. Not impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 #winter2013 You forgot the non before winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 You forgot the non before winter. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 SREF mean courtesy of the SNE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 0z Nam has a weak norlun over NYC. It has moderate snow in SNJ-CNJ. Nam is below 0.10. Not impressive at all. What is the amount in C NJ? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Nam continues with the norlun trough at hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 What is the amount in C NJ? Rossi .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Lol such horrible "storms" this year...all start as a chance at 4-6" and wind up dwindling down to a chance of a coating to an inch. Incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Lol such horrible "storms" this year...all start as a chance at 4-6" and wind up dwindling down to a chance of a coating to an inch. Incredible! 1-3 is a nice event to me. Maybe not to others but I'm fine with it after the winter we had last year and this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I1-3 is a nice event to me. Maybe not to others but I'm fine with it after the winter we had last year and this winter. this is going to be the same as the others.majority see less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 this is going to be the same as the others.majority see less than an inch I got over an inch with the last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 .10 It's actually closer to .25 for his area per twister. The nam run verbatim has the .25 line just inside coastal Monmouth and Ocean. Either way, its all dependent on that inverted trough and we all know how unpredictable these can be. Remember the 1-25 event, all the models had a norlun setting up over southern Mass with .50+ . At the end of the day we all did slightly better than them because the norlun never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Lol such horrible "storms" this year...all start as a chance at 4-6" and wind up dwindling down to a chance of a coating to an inch. Incredible! This was NEVER 3 to 6 . This was always a clipper threatening to drop 1-2 inches of snow with up to 3 in spots on Sunday . Any norluns progged was never expected to be widespread and have been warned for the last 3 days by us here , not to expect it to veirfy .Either you dont know what you are looking at , or you just keep jumping on , expecting more than what the model guidance has been telling you for the last 3 days .This was always a clipper of 1 to 2 - and thats what its goin to be . Next time the models tell you a clipper is coming , dont expect a moderate storm , they are light in nature , and with a pos NAO , this should have always been evident . NO ONE SHOULD BE SHOCKED UNLESS YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 10 hours of light snow on the RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 The Norlun signal is definitely there and it's very interesting because it's close to our area. I won't expect more than an inch but someone could get very lucky and get several inches if the Norlun signal is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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