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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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Notice too how the GFS continues to "lose" the ensuing clippers after this one...this is a good point Steve D and Larry C I think have made before that when you have fast flow you'll tend to notice the decreased QPF as you get inside 5 days, very good rule that always works.

 

It been tough to get a storm to actually deliver more precip over the last year or so. Even the SNJ jackpot this morning

matches the long term pattern.

 

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That would be quite a bump in speed...arriving prior to midnite.  It seems there is going to be a period of precip from the clipper energy overnite tomorrow night.  Followed by a period of light snow through the day, then the Norlun possibility from the developing offshore system later in the day Sunday.  Anyone else getting that read out of this event?

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Lol such horrible "storms" this year...all start as a chance at 4-6" and wind up dwindling down to a chance of a coating to an inch. Incredible!

 

1-3 is a nice event to me. Maybe not to others but I'm fine with it after the winter we had last year and this winter.

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.10

It's actually closer to .25 for his area per twister. The nam run verbatim has the .25 line just inside coastal Monmouth and Ocean. Either way, its all dependent on that inverted trough and we all know how unpredictable these can be. Remember the 1-25 event, all the models had a norlun setting up over southern Mass with .50+ . At the end of the day we all did slightly better than them because the norlun never materialized.

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Lol such horrible "storms" this year...all start as a chance at 4-6" and wind up dwindling down to a chance of a coating to an inch. Incredible!

This was NEVER 3 to 6 . This was always a clipper threatening to drop 1-2 inches of snow with up to 3 in spots on Sunday . Any norluns progged was never expected to be widespread and have been warned for the last 3 days by us here , not to expect it to veirfy .Either you dont know what you are looking at , or you just keep jumping on , expecting more than what the model guidance has been telling you for the last 3 days .This was always a clipper of 1 to 2 - and thats what its goin to be . Next time the models tell you a clipper is coming , dont expect a moderate storm , they are light in nature , and with a pos NAO , this should have always been evident .

NO ONE SHOULD BE SHOCKED UNLESS YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE LOOKING AT

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