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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter

the writing is on the wall - first  the 12Z GFS and now the Euro - running out of time event is only 36 hours or so away- don't even want to know what it shows for 2/5

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Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter

Model hugging way to hard! You were the most optimistic on the sub forum. Look what just happened today look at what happened two Mondays ago out here. Now cast time, someone will do well around here!!

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Model hugging way to hard! You were the most optimistic on the sub forum. Look what just happened today look at what happened to Mondays ago out here. Now cast time, someone will do well around here!!

 

I'm not giving up at all. Just saying that this threat is starting to go downhill. I will be fine with an inch or two.

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Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter

:lol:

 

Always follow the pattern. When it generally sucks, the storm will likely suck regardless of what a model shows a few days ahead. Look how fast the trough is flung east even as it's negatively tilting and it tells you all you need to know. We practically need a trough to amplify over Kansas for a storm to form in time for us now.

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I'm not giving up at all. Just saying that this threat is starting to go downhill. I will be fine with an inch or two.

This does look like an energetic system and there could be localized patches of heavier snow-that's our one real shot now. But the sheared out nature of the vorts and disorganization means that snow will likely be showery.

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Yea, we really won't have a good handle on it until tomorrow when we find out whether Phil sees his shadow or not.

 

The only question now is if there will be enough nickel and dime events before the season ends

for NYC to finish above 10.0 inches. It would be the first back to back single digit seasons.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

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The only question now is if there will be enough nickel and dime events before the season ends

for NYC to finish above 10.0 inches. It would be the first back to back single digit seasons.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

 

Not saying it won't happen, but having back to back < 10 would really be fighting climo...and that's a losing proposition, right?

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Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter

 

It still has the Norlun signature, but the best convergence stays south of Long Island on this run. Hopefully, we

see the northward trend like we sometimes do with these within 48 hrs or so.

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Not saying it won't happen, but having back to back < 10 would really be fighting climo...and that's a losing proposition, right?

 

Oh yeah, that really would be fighting the records .You would think at least before the end of March

we bump up to 10.0 or a few tenths higher. But we have seen many firsts around here recently so

we can't discount the possibility.

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As DT always says - The Euro is not as good as the GFS 48 hours before the storm - so we should get something.

 

Rossi

Tbh, the Euro has been disgusting inside 48hrs this winter. Too many times it has been too dry or too wet, boundary layers too cold. It can't make up its mind. This winter hasn't been a good one for the Euro inside 48hrs.

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GFS still has nothing. Low looks closer to the coast on this run.

 

Notice too how the GFS continues to "lose" the ensuing clippers after this one...this is a good point Steve D and Larry C I think have made before that when you have fast flow you'll tend to notice the decreased QPF as you get inside 5 days, very good rule that always works.

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