SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro says you get nothing, have a nice day! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter the writing is on the wall - first the 12Z GFS and now the Euro - running out of time event is only 36 hours or so away- don't even want to know what it shows for 2/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Another Storm Cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the writing is on the wall - first the 12Z GFS and now the Euro - running out of time event is only 36 hours or so away- don't even want to know what it shows for 2/5 The lead vort is messing up this storm. Here is another problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter Model hugging way to hard! You were the most optimistic on the sub forum. Look what just happened today look at what happened two Mondays ago out here. Now cast time, someone will do well around here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Model hugging way to hard! You were the most optimistic on the sub forum. Look what just happened today look at what happened to Mondays ago out here. Now cast time, someone will do well around here!! I'm not giving up at all. Just saying that this threat is starting to go downhill. I will be fine with an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter Always follow the pattern. When it generally sucks, the storm will likely suck regardless of what a model shows a few days ahead. Look how fast the trough is flung east even as it's negatively tilting and it tells you all you need to know. We practically need a trough to amplify over Kansas for a storm to form in time for us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not giving up at all. Just saying that this threat is starting to go downhill. I will be fine with an inch or two. As DT always says - The Euro is not as good as the GFS 48 hours before the storm - so we should get something. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 As DT always says - The Euro is not as good as the GFS 48 hours before the storm - so we should get something. Rossi GFS doesn't even give the area a lot of precip from this event. We are still 2 days away so things could get better or even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not giving up at all. Just saying that this threat is starting to go downhill. I will be fine with an inch or two. This does look like an energetic system and there could be localized patches of heavier snow-that's our one real shot now. But the sheared out nature of the vorts and disorganization means that snow will likely be showery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The only question now is if there will be enough nickel and dime events before the season ends for NYC to finish above 10.0 inches. It would be the first back to back single digit seasons. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yea, we really won't have a good handle on it until tomorrow when we find out whether Phil sees his shadow or not. The only question now is if there will be enough nickel and dime events before the season ends for NYC to finish above 10.0 inches. It would be the first back to back single digit seasons. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The only question now is if there will be enough nickel and dime events before the season ends for NYC to finish above 10.0 inches. It would be the first back to back single digit seasons. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Not saying it won't happen, but having back to back < 10 would really be fighting climo...and that's a losing proposition, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wow at Cape May county! A total kick in the gonads for our area when extreme southern nj gets more snow than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter It still has the Norlun signature, but the best convergence stays south of Long Island on this run. Hopefully, we see the northward trend like we sometimes do with these within 48 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z NOAGPS continues to like Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not saying it won't happen, but having back to back < 10 would really be fighting climo...and that's a losing proposition, right? Oh yeah, that really would be fighting the records .You would think at least before the end of March we bump up to 10.0 or a few tenths higher. But we have seen many firsts around here recently so we can't discount the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z NAM had 25 hours of snow at KMMU for a total of 3.9". 0.34" total QPF. Ratios in the 10-12:1. 3.6" at KLGA. GFS showed six hour event for 0.7" at KLGA and the same at KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 As DT always says - The Euro is not as good as the GFS 48 hours before the storm - so we should get something. Rossi Tbh, the Euro has been disgusting inside 48hrs this winter. Too many times it has been too dry or too wet, boundary layers too cold. It can't make up its mind. This winter hasn't been a good one for the Euro inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The 18z. NAM. Says ur fine ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The 18z. NAM. Says ur fine ant Can you post some totals for NYC, CENTRAL NJ? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18Z NAM still showing Norlun over the city hr 42-48. Whether right or wrong, it's consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Can you post some totals for NYC, CENTRAL NJ? Rossi I cant throw em on. We snow sunday central NJ. I still say 1 to 2. It showd norlun signal but i thnk thats to b ignored til the day of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z rgem has the norlun over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Upton seems agressive on this one, suprised they are calling for close to 2" given their usual conservative approach. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS still has nothing. Low looks closer to the coast on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS still has nothing. Low looks closer to the coast on this run. Notice too how the GFS continues to "lose" the ensuing clippers after this one...this is a good point Steve D and Larry C I think have made before that when you have fast flow you'll tend to notice the decreased QPF as you get inside 5 days, very good rule that always works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z rgem has the norlun over NYC Its tough to tell but it does appear its there right at the 48 hour frame...the biggest thing about the RGEM is how it blows up the low more off the coast at 00-03Z or so tomorrow night with more of a noticeable period of snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ^^^ I have noticed that. It stinks because the Tuesday threat was looking good until yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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