February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion

[MJO812]

What does the gfs show for Sunday preciptation wise?

 

Rossi

 

Snow flurries and snow showers

[bluewave]

What does the gfs show for Sunday preciptation wise?

 

Rossi

 

The greatest POPs east.

[NEG NAO]

GFS still wants nothing to do with the inverted trough on today's 12z run.

this run wants to have nothing to do with just about the whole system - looks like the offshore storm steals all the available moisture and leaves us with some snow showers or very light snow .10 or less - coating at best

[earthlight]

The soundings have TT's in the 45-50 range across LI with steep mid-level lapse rates.

 

Signal is there aloft as well especially with the track of the storm offshore. I think its becoming more of an issue of where it will set up as opposed to whether or not it will set up. Support for a bigger solution with the storm tracking close to the coast is waning.

[IsentropicLift]

What does the gfs show for Sunday preciptation wise?

 

Rossi

< .10"

 

[PB GFI]

Coarser global models dont pick up norluns. The euro is s little finer so if theres one mayb it sees it. Only high res pick up inversions well. Its a clipper. Can drop 1 to 2. I thnk to expect more than that is goin to make one dissapointed in the end

[NEG NAO]

< .10"

IMO the GFS is the way to go considering how this season has turned out around here so far - you know its a bad winter for snowfall  when areas to the south have had more snow then NYC through Feb 1

[SnoSki14]

Coarser global models dont pick up norluns. The euro is s little finer so if theres one mayb it sees it. Only high res pick up inversions well. Its a clipper. Can drop 1 to 2. I thnk to expect more than that is goin to make one dissapointed in the end

 

I agree, expect the 1-2" and if you get more from the inverted trough, then be happy. 

[bluewave]

Signal is there aloft as well especially with the track of the storm offshore. I think its becoming more of an issue of where it will set up as opposed to whether or not it will set up. Support for a bigger solution with the storm tracking close to the coast is waning.

 

Yeah, the dominant northern stream  should keep the main low development fairly far offshore.

So anything greater than a coating to an inch or two will depend on the inverted trough not shifting 

into New England on later runs.

[jm1220]

Coarser global models dont pick up norluns. The euro is s little finer so if theres one mayb it sees it. Only high res pick up inversions well. Its a clipper. Can drop 1 to 2. I thnk to expect more than that is goin to make one dissapointed in the end

The EUro has 4DVAR resolution, making it essentially a mesoscale model. It's generally good at picking up on finer-scale events like Norluns.

[earthlight]

The EUro had 4DVAR resolution, making it essentially a mesoscale model. It's generally good at picking up on finer-scale events like Norluns.

 

The 4DVAR initialization scheme definitely helps...but its got a much better resolution than the GFS anyway.

[PB GFI]

With a pos nao this should never hav been thought of as potential big system. SW cannot stop on a dime with a fast atlantic. U need a break in the atmosphere and without it the SW has to b proggressive. And prob tues as well. Take ir 1 to 2 a few times and 6 to 7 days of 5 below and b happy. Thats a win in a yr like ths. Sad i know. Sh"t happens

[NEG NAO]

I agree, expect the 1-2" and if you get more from the inverted trough, then be happy. 

i think we have to look at what happened this morning in south jersey - not everyone will get 1 -2 in the region - some might end up with barely a coating and others 2 inches - all depends on how the precip shield sets up and that is next to impossible to predict this far out - more of a nowcasting thing ..............although some of the models did well forecasting the thin stripe of snow across south jersey

[PB GFI]

The EUro had 4DVAR resolution, making it essentially a mesoscale model. It's generally good at picking up on finer-scale events like Norluns.[/quote

Bro norluns r like hot women. They live in there own little world. Here today gone tomorrw.

[IsentropicLift]

IMO the GFS is the way to go considering how this season has turned out around here so far - you know its a bad winter for snowfall  when areas to the south have had more snow then NYC through Feb 1

What has happened so far this year has no bearing on what will happen in the future. We go through bad stretches and great stretches. This is a bad stretch. We don't live in Buffalo or Minnesota.

[NEG NAO]

What has happened so far this year has no bearing on what will happen in the future. We go through bad stretches and great stretches. This is a bad stretch. We don't live in Buffalo or Minnesota.

and because we are going through a bad stretch with the indicies - thats why I said its the way to go for sundays storm - I didn't mention any system beyond that - if the indicies begin going in the right direction and start working together - the pattern for east coast storms and cold together will improve

[SnowGoose69]

Is it good with inverted troughs? GFS is the only model that doesn't have one.

 

If you look closely at 51 and 54 hours you can see a subtle signature from the GFS that might indicate an inverted trof near NYC but its very hard to see, definitely there though.

[MJO812]

GGEM has nothing

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[WintersGrasp]

Remember with the event a week or so ago there was a heavy band that set up and some areas actually got a few inches and some 0

[WintersGrasp]

I agree, expect the 1-2" and if you get more from the inverted trough, then be happy.

i think we have to look at what happened this morning in south jersey - not everyone will get 1 -2 in the region - some might end up with barely a coating and others 2 inches - all depends on how the precip shield sets up and that is next to impossible to predict this far out - more of a nowcasting thing ..............although some of the models did well forecasting the thin stripe of snow across south jersey

I agree and nice post.....but I do have to say, with all these tiny events we are having come through here, the high resolution NAM does seem to be pretty consistent in setting up banding on its sim radar. Honestly....it's even been accurate past 48 hours time frame

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Some areas of South Jersey got 4-7 inches from a clipper today, so 1-3 inches isn't out of the question for us for the Sunday clipper. Very do-able in my opinion.

[swataz]

I'd take a 1-3 at this point, and then any subsequent little coatings to 2"-ers. I'd actually prefer that over the potential damage a massive nor'easter may cause, not to mention my roof leaking.

[MJO812]

.10+ on the GEFS

[bluewave]

Some areas of South Jersey got 4-7 inches from a clipper today, so 1-3 inches isn't out of the question for us for the Sunday clipper. Very do-able in my opinion.

 

It was one of the rare times that the NAM was actually too dry instead of too juiced.

 

[jm1220]

Remember with the event a week or so ago there was a heavy band that set up and some areas actually got a few inches and some 0

There was some enhancement from the ocean as the clipper began to exit out, which I would say is a possibility here but again, that's if you're lucky and sit under that enhancement. Places east are more likely to get somewhat higher amounts (a couple of inches like last time I'd say).

[PB GFI]

MT HOLLY AFD from last nite , not there fault , this was the model guidance  places reporting 6  inches out of todays clipper .

stuff like this happens , the next clippers are more robust than this one was .

 

 

000
FXUS61 KPHI 010216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR AREA SUNDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GRADIENT FLOW IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT
COUPLED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR MIXING HAS ALLOWED GUSTS TO
DROP BACK BELOW 45 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. WHILE THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 600 PM.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. SCATTERED FLURRIES
WERE INCLUDED FOR MOST PLACES...AS THE RADAR COVERAGE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MOST PLACES PROBABLY DO NOT SEE
FLURRIES AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE INCREASING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
STATES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NEVERTHELESS, IT COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND DOWNINGTOWN
TO PHILADELPHIA TO MOUNT HOLLY TO TOMS RIVER WITH JUST A DUSTING
EXPECTED AT LOCATIONS NEAR THE LINE.

THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE COAST DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE BRISK WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS
THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDDAY.
IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME WINDY AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S, WITH MOSTLY 20S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN.

[bluewave]

MT HOLLY AFD from last nite , not there fault , this was the model guidance  places reporting 6  inches out of todays clipper .

stuff like this happens , the next clippers are more robust than this one was .

 

 

000

FXUS61 KPHI 010216

AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

916 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT

INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY

NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE

GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR AREA SUNDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY COASTAL

LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS

TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TUESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THE GRADIENT FLOW IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT

COUPLED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR MIXING HAS ALLOWED GUSTS TO

DROP BACK BELOW 45 KNOTS OVER THE REGION. WHILE THERE COULD BE

SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST

AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO

EXPIRE AT 600 PM.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS THAT WAS OVERHEAD DURING THE

AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. SCATTERED FLURRIES

WERE INCLUDED FOR MOST PLACES...AS THE RADAR COVERAGE SUGGESTS THE

POTENTIAL JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. MOST PLACES PROBABLY DO NOT SEE

FLURRIES AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE INCREASING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS

EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE

TEENS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL

STATES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE

TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN

INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO

NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES

EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM

THE WEST. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NEVERTHELESS, IT COULD

CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATING SNOW

SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND DOWNINGTOWN

TO PHILADELPHIA TO MOUNT HOLLY TO TOMS RIVER WITH JUST A DUSTING

EXPECTED AT LOCATIONS NEAR THE LINE.

THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE COAST DURING THE MID

MORNING HOURS. THE BRISK WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS

THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD AROUND MIDDAY.

IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME WINDY AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND

FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THOSE

EXPERIENCED TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO

BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S, WITH MOSTLY 20S IN THE

ELEVATED TERRAIN.

 

That's why so many of our big snow events through the 1980's were nowcast specials since the models were so bad.

Even with the huge improvements in modeling since then, a few are still going to get by you.

[FreeRain]

If you look closely at 51 and 54 hours you can see a subtle signature from the GFS that might indicate an inverted trof near NYC but its very hard to see, definitely there though.

 

Yup, now that you mention it.

 

I had thought it was a spec a dirt on my screen.

 

Anyway, what a winter. All we are left with on Sunday is a mediocre, hard-to-pin-down Norlun.

[PB GFI]

That's why so many of our big snow events through the 1980's were nowcast specials since the models were so bad.

Even with the huge improvements in modeling since then, a few are still going to get by you.

I dont think Sun and Tues have quite this upside , but if someone gets 3 , I would think thats resonable .

[MJO812]

Euro has very little precip now. It lost the norlun signature that it showed in the past runs. This threat is starting to go downhill like the other threats this winter