MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Enjoy your Norlun on Sunday, NAM loves KEWR Nam also has a norlun on NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z NAM shows the norlun over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z NAM is one of the wettest models. Shows 0.25"+ for most of the area. Less NW and less for Long Island. Still has to be a low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z NAM is one of the wettest models. Shows 0.25"+ for most of the area. Less NW and less for Long Island. Still has to be a low confidence forecast. Euro is near .20 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Relying on a Norlun is again, a dangerous road. More likely it's a prolonged period of light snow that adds up over 12 hours or so. If this Norlun doesn't pan out (likely), the precip amounts are likely over done since much of it falls as a result of that Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 This will probably be like guessing where convection will form two days out from an event in the summer. 30 miles is going to make a big difference between a coating to maybe 3 inches or more. Looks like this is going to be a nowcasters special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The negativity in this thread is unreal. Its if people are wish casting a fail because they are bitter about the rest of the winter. This never was going to be a big event like last weeks fail so do not to rip on it. Ill take 2 inches and be happy! After 4.5 inches last week it all adds up and around here this winter is blowing last year away! (we had .5 in the October storm and 1.5 in the January event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Relying on a Norlun is again, a dangerous road. More likely it's a prolonged period of light snow that adds up over 12 hours or so. If this Norlun doesn't pan out (likely), the precip amounts are likely over done since much of it falls as a result of that Norlun. Well its in the right place at this range, remember, usually sets up a bit northeast of where its often modeled to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sundays system is 1 to 2 inches and possibly 3 on Long Island . Everyone starts as snow as temps will be BELOW freezing and if temps get to 34 - 35 it will be towards the very tail end of the system and that will only occur at the immediate coast . MT HOLLYS AFD is going with 1-2 throughout all of New Jersey unless one lives in extreme SNJ The snow will stick , secondary roads will be covered . Again the European is colder than the GFS and just like the GFS came around to the track with this system 2 days ago it should do so as far as temps go as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Flurries in Monmoutn county Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 These inverted troughs are so incredibly difficult to predict. The NAM is definitely showing the inverted trough enhancement on the simulated radar very well. Wherever this sets up, we could see advisory level snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 These inverted troughs are so incredibly difficult to predict. The NAM is definitely showing the inverted trough enhancement on the simulated radar very well. Wherever this sets up, we could see advisory level snowfall totals. It will be interesting to see if we can get an isolated thunder snow report where the band actually sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The more amplified members of the SREF at 09z (including the ones that give us moderate snow and a big storm to New England) all race the second vortmax south and east through the OV and phase it with the lead piece of energy. If you look at the NAM, this doesn't happen...it isn't particularly close to happening either. If you're looking for a more wrapped up solution, that's what needs to occur. The SREFs...especially the ARW members have not been good the last two weeks. So we'll have to watch the trends over the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It will be interesting to see if we can get an isolated thunder snow report where the band actually sets up. The inverted troughs are so peculiar, especially on models...because they don't happen unless a specific set of things are lined up perfectly. So not only are they difficult to predict even on mesoscale models, but they can sometimes not set up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The inverted troughs are so peculiar, especially on models...because they don't happen unless a specific set of things are lined up perfectly. So not only are they difficult to predict even on mesoscale models, but they can sometimes not set up at all. Guessing their exact location a few days out can be like trying to pinpoint summer convection two days in advance. The best that we can do is say a general signal is there for a possible one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 RGEM has some light snow for the area. This is tomorrow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 RGEM has some light snow for the area. This is tomorrow. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The RGEM actually has (what appears to be) a lake effect streamer through Northern NJ between 22z and 03z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Guessing their exact location a few days out can be like trying to pinpoint summer convection two days in advance. The best that we can do is say a general signal is there for a possible one here. Screen shot 2013-02-01 at 10.15.28 AM.png Signal is definitely there but my confidence is extremely low as usual with these types of events. That's not a bad analogy at all regarding the convection. The mid level height field is very different on almost every mesoscale model at this point. Check out some of the SREFs...a huge spread in solutions in regards to the second vort max which slides southeast through the Ohio Valley. That can change the setup drastically in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does anyone know how much above normal were the January Temperatures? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What has happened to the MM5? It seems to me that in the immediate short term (<24 hours), it used to be great for forecasting localized impacts. But it seems to be really off this year. Today's system to the south of this sub-forum is a perfect example, as of yesterday's 12Z run it had almost zero precip in NJ and then that's where the heaviest occurs today. Would think we could be looking at tomorrow's 12Z run of the MM5 and have a pretty good picture of the local precip for Sunday but I have no confidence in it right now. The RUC, however, did a very good job with today's precip so would look to that starting later tomorrow to maybe nail down the localized impacts for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does anyone know how much above normal were the January Temperatures? Rossi NYC looks like slightly less then 3 degrees above normal http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does anyone know how much above normal were the January Temperatures? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does anyone know how much above normal were the January Temperatures? Rossi BDR: +2.7° EWR: +3.8° ISP: +2.5° JFK: +2.3° LGA: +2.9° NYC: +2.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Signal is definitely there but my confidence is extremely low as usual with these types of events. That's not a bad analogy at all regarding the convection. The mid level height field is very different on almost every mesoscale model at this point. Check out some of the SREFs...a huge spread in solutions in regards to the second vort max which slides southeast through the Ohio Valley. That can change the setup drastically in either direction. Yeah, we may not be able to trust the placement of the main features until we get within 12-24 hours of the event. Kind of a tricky forecast since there will be a lot of travel with the superbowl parties taking place. This may come right down to tracking the radar as a nowcast special. Further out across the Island up into New England seems to be the favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS still wants nothing to do with the inverted trough on today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS still wants nothing to do with the inverted trough on today's 12z run. Is it good with inverted troughs? GFS is the only model that doesn't have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 JIs it good with inverted troughs? GFS is the only model that doesn't have one. I am not sure if the resolution is good enough on the GFS. The NAM looked like the Euro last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Kind of surprised the gfs doesn't have one, the setup for one is certainly there. From hrs 48 to 54 there should be some sort of extension from the low or the Norlun but again those are extremely difficult to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Kind of surprised the gfs doesn't have one, the setup for one is certainly there. From hrs 48 to 54 there should be some sort of extension from the low or the Norlun but again those are extremely difficult to predict. The soundings have TT's in the 45-50 range across LI with steep mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The soundings have TT's in the 45-50 range across LI with steep mid-level lapse rates. What does the gfs show for Sunday preciptation wise? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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