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February 2-3 Potential Super Bowl Storm Discussion


Mitchel Volk

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The GFS has joined the ECMWF in showing a potential storm on Sunday for the Northeast coast.  The digging trough is shown to be digging stronger and more south, if this is true this should develop a storm off the mid Atlantic coast.  If this trend gets stronger NYC may see a real snow, currently the GFS predicts around 2 inches and the ECMWF just a little less.  I do see some potential, but will wait for a few more runs to get excited.

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Happy to see the GFS join the Euro and UKMET. Now it's a matter of how deep. Too early to tell . The Atlantic is still a ill quick so its hard for ths one to get deep. As it is right now , there's a good chance at accumulating snow Sunday Just how much ? Lotta time to sort

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In the philly forum they love the euro it seems. After all how many times has the euro caved to the gfs this season, Statistics can be used to show what you want them to show, but in general the gfs seems to have gotten better over the last year while the euro has not.

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If the GFS forecast soundings verify, then this would be one of the strongest Norlun signals

that we have seen in some time. Mid-level lapse rates of 8.3 and TT's to 59 at ISP could turn

this into a 3-6 inch snow event even with the low far off shore. So we'll have to really

watch the the soundings the next few days to see how this signal evolves in the short

term.

 

 

 

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Yes, especially the along immediate coast. With SE winds between between the primary low and coastal low.

 

The Euro begins warm than changes over snow out across Long Island closer to the Norlun.

Check out how unstable the forecast soundings are. If the Euro track verified, this would be

rain to a localized heavy snow burst and possibly 3-6 inches in a short time. the winds

shift quickly to the north and the 850's collapse. The best chance would be from Long Island

up through New England with this.

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The Euro begins warm than changes over snow out across Long Island closer to the Norlun.

Check out how unstable the forecast soundings are. If the Euro track verified, this would be

rain to a localized heavy snow burst and possibly 3-6 inches in a short time. the winds

shift quickly to the north and the 850's collapse. The best chance would be from Long Island

up through New England with this.

 

The Euro has the primary low dying faster. The 6z GFS sounding for ISP on the bufkit has weak omega. So it doesn't ovecome bl warmth. Either way we are still in the transition zone.

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Here's some SKEW T's for KNYC for Sunday from the Euro.....I don't know what you guys are looking at, but this is not a warm look.

 

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-78-C--73974073.png

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-84-C--73974073.png

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-90-C--73974073.png

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-96This i-C--73974073.png

 

This is first time I'm seeing Euro soundings. And it doesn't look warm to me.

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Here's some SKEW T's for KNYC for Sunday from the Euro.....I don't know what you guys are looking at, but this is not a warm look.

 

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-78-C--73974073.png

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-84-C--73974073.png

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-90-C--73974073.png

attachicon.gifecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-96-C--73974073.png

 

Do you have the TT's and L57's for later soundings at ISP when the instability is greater?

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Why are u guys looking at the GFS lol 24 hrs ago it ran the storm thru lake placid . this morning its caught on to the Euro to some degree and now cuts thru the Delmarva .

1 , This is not a SNOWSTORM . but its an accumulating snow .

2 , This is not RAIN . but its an accumulating snow .

Some of you just jump on here and have no idea what you are looking at .

The Euro is snow , if you wana follow the GFS , you will do so off a cliff .

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