Mitchel Volk Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The GFS has joined the ECMWF in showing a potential storm on Sunday for the Northeast coast. The digging trough is shown to be digging stronger and more south, if this is true this should develop a storm off the mid Atlantic coast. If this trend gets stronger NYC may see a real snow, currently the GFS predicts around 2 inches and the ECMWF just a little less. I do see some potential, but will wait for a few more runs to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I believe it was Jan 25th 1987 when the area began to receive 5 - 8" snow during or just after the Giants had won the Superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GEM not biting just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 0z GEFS has about .10 + for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 UK looks good at 72, GEM is flatter. ECM getting closer bust still mainly a miss has light snow sun with .10+ into LI/SNE and is just south with heavier qpf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Biggest concern is that it blows up too late and the primary clipper is way too far north. The Nam gets it going just enough for us to get a 2-4" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Latest gfs looks even better, looks close to something a lot bigger if it can dig the clipper just a little bit further. Looks like the North Atlantic Block is helping to slow down the progressive nature of this pattern and allowing the clipper to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Latest gfs looks even better, looks close to something a lot bigger if it can dig the clipper just a little bit further. Looks like the North Atlantic Block is helping to slow down the progressive nature of this pattern and allowing the clipper to intensify. Just a little slower and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Happy to see the GFS join the Euro and UKMET. Now it's a matter of how deep. Too early to tell . The Atlantic is still a ill quick so its hard for ths one to get deep. As it is right now , there's a good chance at accumulating snow Sunday Just how much ? Lotta time to sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gefs blows up the storm in SNE. It still gives us a light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 In the philly forum they love the euro it seems. After all how many times has the euro caved to the gfs this season, Statistics can be used to show what you want them to show, but in general the gfs seems to have gotten better over the last year while the euro has not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Any concerns with the surface temps? 6z gfs pops NYC to 37 degrees and has all of LI into the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If the GFS forecast soundings verify, then this would be one of the strongest Norlun signals that we have seen in some time. Mid-level lapse rates of 8.3 and TT's to 59 at ISP could turn this into a 3-6 inch snow event even with the low far off shore. So we'll have to really watch the the soundings the next few days to see how this signal evolves in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NWS for sunday...snow before 12 noon..then rain..high 38*.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NWS for sunday...snow before 12 noon..then rain..high 38*.. Rain? I know the GFS is close with the surface but I think it would be all snow if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Rain? I know the GFS is close with the surface but I think it would be all snow if verified. GFS has you at 40 degrees in the middle of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Any concerns with the surface temps? 6z gfs pops NYC to 37 degrees and has all of LI into the low 40s. Yes, especially along the immediate coast. With SE winds between the primary low and secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS has you at 40 degrees in the middle of the event. That's weird. Hopefully it gets colder on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yes, especially the along immediate coast. With SE winds between between the primary low and coastal low. The Euro begins warm than changes over snow out across Long Island closer to the Norlun. Check out how unstable the forecast soundings are. If the Euro track verified, this would be rain to a localized heavy snow burst and possibly 3-6 inches in a short time. the winds shift quickly to the north and the 850's collapse. The best chance would be from Long Island up through New England with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro is much colder. NYC easily below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The Euro begins warm than changes over snow out across Long Island closer to the Norlun. Check out how unstable the forecast soundings are. If the Euro track verified, this would be rain to a localized heavy snow burst and possibly 3-6 inches in a short time. the winds shift quickly to the north and the 850's collapse. The best chance would be from Long Island up through New England with this. The Euro has the primary low dying faster. The 6z GFS sounding for ISP on the bufkit has weak omega. So it doesn't ovecome bl warmth. Either way we are still in the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Here's some SKEW T's for KNYC for Sunday from the Euro.....I don't know what you guys are looking at, but this is not a warm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Actual data, FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Actual data, FTW? Euro is colder than the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Here's some SKEW T's for KNYC for Sunday from the Euro.....I don't know what you guys are looking at, but this is not a warm look. ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-78-C--73974073.png ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-84-C--73974073.png ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-90-C--73974073.png ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-96This i-C--73974073.png This is first time I'm seeing Euro soundings. And it doesn't look warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This is first time I'm seeing Euro soundings. And it doesn't look warm to me. Yeah, these are quite handy.....and yes, there's no rain on those soundings. Still work to do to get everyone in on the fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Here's some SKEW T's for KNYC for Sunday from the Euro.....I don't know what you guys are looking at, but this is not a warm look. ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-78-C--73974073.png ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-84-C--73974073.png ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-90-C--73974073.png ecmwfued-hgtprs--conus-96-C--73974073.png Do you have the TT's and L57's for later soundings at ISP when the instability is greater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Why are u guys looking at the GFS lol 24 hrs ago it ran the storm thru lake placid . this morning its caught on to the Euro to some degree and now cuts thru the Delmarva . 1 , This is not a SNOWSTORM . but its an accumulating snow . 2 , This is not RAIN . but its an accumulating snow . Some of you just jump on here and have no idea what you are looking at . The Euro is snow , if you wana follow the GFS , you will do so off a cliff . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Do you have the TT's and L57's for later soundings at ISP when the instability is greater? Here's Islip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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