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Is it too early to Speculate the Winter of 2013-14


doug1991

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Oh, shucks, I thought we couldn't have two winters in a row that were a complete wipeout and maybe we won't but my faith is a little shaken.  Then I thought a little about this last wicked little heat wave after all the relatively long lasting little heat waves and wondered if this isn't sort of like a sickness that lingered and lingered until then there was the mass puking and fever.   Then we return to health.  Naw, it's just weather.  

 

It bums me out not so much for me but my brother and his wife's family do this cooperative cross country ski trail thing in my hometown, they're up to something like 25km of trails and this weekend is their big tiki torch bonfire cookout fundraiser.  Last year they actually asked the town road crew if they could sand the quarter mile of trail up to where it happens because it was sheet ice and they didn't want to have to patch up anybody's melon after the poor bugger fell trying to walk in.  The town actually did it!  A lot of people come in to use these trails and then go to the diner for eats or over to the tavern for beers.  

 

One last little bit of hope I cling to is the story my now deceased neighbor told me about coming to town many years ago and starting his medical practice as a GP.  The first winter his secretary brought in her son with a wicked rash, it was the middle of January, and he said that it was poison ivy.  They all looked at him like 'Oh, great, this new doctor is an idiot!' but it was an open winter and the kid was playing out in the brush behind the shed... sure enough, he was right.... but the upshot is that back in the 1940s we had winters where in mid January the ground was bare in the Dorptown.  Cycles.  I just keep telling myself it is cycles, not a slide down to an ever muddy bare and brown pit.  Some day it will be bright and crystalline, and I'm not just talking about the stuff cooked up in various sketchy basements. 

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La nina is not a lock. Another downwelling wave is pushing west with lots of warm water and westerly winds. That may not slow down the cooler waters, but I don't think Nina is a lock. Watch that next wind burst to see if it puts a dent in things.

 

It's still too early to judge ENSO but leaning colder would be wise. 

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The prediction: There will be snow, rain, some winter weather advisories, some winter storm warnings, torches, cold fronts, busted forecasts, and we will be right here tracking it every step of the way.

 

In all seriousness, it's too early. There are three legit threats over the next 10 days (2-3, 2-5, 2-10), so focus the energy on this winter, it's not dead yet.

 

-skisheep

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The following graphic compares our current solar cycle against some of the real weak sisters in the past.  As you can see, cycle 24 is a true 98 pound weakling.  However weak it is, we are stil at a max which gives us middling solar activity.  We will likely muddle along like this for another 20 or so months before solar activity crashes.

 

So next year could well be another clunker (three in a row isn't all that unusual, taken as a whole the past 20 years have been very good to us).  Starting in 2014/2015 and lasting for at least ten years it will be time to fasten your seatbelts...we will have stretch for the history books!

post-837-0-95090800-1359748701_thumb.png

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