Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Clipper express v 2.0 (February 1-6)


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 754
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Very interesting run from the EC and 12-13Z RAPs. There's potential for a surprise snow event tonight on a (roughly) Kirksville, MO to STL to Paducah, KY corridor. RAP is showing a conditionally unstable layer above 800mb, right through the dendritic growth zone. The EC's QPF field is heavily suggestive of precip from the convective parameterization scheme (looks very "splotchy"). Could be a narrow jackpot of 2-4 (locally 5"). I don't have access to my normal computer yet, but I'll hop on later and interrogate it some more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very interesting run from the EC and 12-13Z RAPs. There's potential for a surprise snow event tonight on a (roughly) Kirksville, MO to STL to Paducah, KY corridor. RAP is showing a conditionally unstable layer above 800mb, right through the dendritic growth zone. The EC's QPF field is heavily suggestive of precip from the convective parameterization scheme (looks very "splotchy"). Could be a narrow jackpot of 2-4 (locally 5"). I don't have access to my normal computer yet, but I'll hop on later and interrogate it some more.

 

 

Yep, this is "that" set-up that screams that surprise 3 inch band with lollipops of 5".

 

When I saw the RAP, I couldn't help but get stoked.

 

The GFS is on board too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's beautiful outside, but a little disappointed in this clipper. As of 11:30am we had 1.3" of very dry, fluffy snow, which is actually right around what DTX forecast, but this was with just 0.05" water equivalent. Just flurries now but I wont call it final total as models have some qpf into the afternoon. So far though model qpf was overdone here. Snow has that velvety look with the dendrites sitting on top.

 

3405-800.jpg

 

3406-800.jpg

 

3407-800.jpg

 

3408-800.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems to me that the extreme ratios rarely pan out but they did this time for you guys. Congrats.

 

Yep, agreed. I will never bank on modeled ratios to get my hopes up but it's cool when it happens. About as fluffy as it gets.  Reminds of the lack effect we would get up in Houghton/Hancock... Did you guys land anything in your neck of the woods?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Measured 2.9" at the house.

 

 

 

NWUS53 KMKX 021211LSRMKXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI611 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0608 AM     SNOW             MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W02/02/2013  M2.1 INCH        MILWAUKEE          WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS            TOTAL SNOWFALL SO FAR.

 

000NWUS53 KMKX 021521LSRMKXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI921 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0810 AM     SNOW             1 S JANESVILLE          42.67N 89.02W02/02/2013  M4.1 INCH        ROCK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Considering all the data that we have attm.

I would think we will see forecast changes pretty soon.



This is a low QPF(relative) since we may see .10+ over a wide area in 2 hour span.

Very high impact event.

This is the type of event that will snow cover roads..or at least ice them up with temps falling into the upper 20s during the heaviest snow.

Roads/ground will be frozen or near frozen even with today reaching the low 40s.


This could very well end up anther event where the public cries about a busted forecast and hopefully no driving fatality's or anything.


As of noon the three major local news sources have light snow up to a dusting, light snow less than 1 inch and light snow no accumulation.


With the NWS at a 30 percent chance for snow showers and a trace.

 

 

The RAP has a 2 hour blast of heavy snow between 9pm-1am for the metro with .1 to .25 QPF.

 

While yeah it's not some blizzard.  1-3 inches of snow that fast will screw roads big time with temps falling into the mid to upper 20s on a Party night of the week and as of now the general public expects "light snow" a dusting or flurries that means people don't think it's gonna do bleep.

 

 

That is only 9 hours away.  Not 3 days.  You gotta get on the ball when your dealing with a high impact event like this on a weekend day where folks won't get the Message.  People will come out of places buzzed and drunk a drive home in possibly blindingly heavy snow with snow packed roads. 

 

The RAP has been showing this since 7AM and maybe it will bust but damn.  It's not a jab at anyone in particular, just seems like what the hell?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get what you're saying, but there's still a lot of bust potential, Friv. Instability driven/enhanced events are a fickle beast. Who gets hit hard in the narrow track zone is up in the air. Either way, there's a big change from last night when looking at Dprog/Dt's of the NAM and GFS (wetter/stronger).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...