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Clipper express v 2.0 (February 1-6)


snowstormcanuck

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Snow started around 8pm, now snowing pretty hard. Getting close to half an inch.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

851 PM CST FRI FEB 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

851 PM...EVENING UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST IL

AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS

NORTHERN IL SATURDAY MORNING. NOT PLANNING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES

TO CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THOUGH LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTER

PART OF THE CWA...PERHAPS BETWEEN I-80 AND THE KANKAKEE RIVER.

THOUGH AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD MORNING...COULD BE

ANOTHER BAND/RIBBON OF SNOW AFFECTING THESE AREAS. SOUNDINGS

CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DEEP GROWTH LAYER AND DESPITE LOW QPF

AMOUNTS...SNOW SHOULD BE VERY DRY AND FLUFFY ALONG WITH SNOWFALL

RATES OF MAYBE A HALF INCH PER HOUR. HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO

HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS TO TRY TO INDICATE EXPECTED PROGRESSION

EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW

WITH OVERCAST SKIES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DROP FROM HERE...

THOUGH TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY FOR AWHILE AS THE SNOW BEGINS AND

PERHAPS RISE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. CMS

 

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Update from IWX...

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA1115 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013.UPDATE...SIG UPDATE WRT RAPID INCRS UPSTREAM PER RAPID EASE OF TOP/DOWNSATURATION PROCESS GIVEN SUCH COLD THERMAL PROFILES. SUPERIOR WAA/VEERING HODO WITH NRN TERMINUS OF LLJ 45KTS IMPINGING 925MB MSTRPOOL OF 2-2.4 G/KG AIR. IDEAL COLLOCATION OF FEATURES FOR MOSTDOMINANT MFLUX CONVERGENCE ALIGN ACRS SWRN/SRN CWA...THOUGH CONCEDESLIGHT LK INFLUENCE FOR SECONDARY MAXIMA ACRS SWRN MI. GIVEN XTRMSLOPE OF ADVECTING BULK MSTR/MIXR WALL RELATIVE GIVEN THE COLDAIRMASS...ALONG WITH WELL SATURATED DGZ...EVEN DOUBLE SATURATED LYRSNOTED AT KFWA PER 00 NAM BUFKIT IN ADDITION TO THIN LYR OF THETA-EDCRSG WITH HGHT IN 4-6KFT LYR TO AFFORD POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FORPSBL DVLPMENT OF MORE CONCERTED UVM STREETS BY ERLY AM...IN LINEWITH AND FURTHERING CONFIDENCE IN HIR POPS/QPF FOR THIS UPDATE SPCLYWITH THE BURGEONING BAROCLINIC LEAF IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. HIGH/PSBLYXTRM SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS WITH EFFICIENT DENDRITIC PROCESSESALMOST ASSURED. QUICK TIMING ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR THAT SHOULDQUELL FINAL TOTALS TO AOB 3 INCHES IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...ANDELSEWHERE GENERAL 1.5-2.5 INCHES ANTICIPATED BY LATE SATMORNING...WITH LOWEST AMOUNTS ACRS FAR NERN CWA.
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Model qpf now gives DTW about 0.10-0.15", so with very good ratios Im thinking we see a good fluffy 2" of snow tomorrow, perhaps we will luck out and get more. Starting with a 2" base so it will certainly look like mid-winter. Thinking DTX forecast of around an inch busts low.

 

This system may over perform or at least be what the earlier model runs depicted. There's close to 1/2" hour rates coming down in places.

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