Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Clipper express v 2.0 (February 1-6)


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 754
  • Created
  • Last Reply

According to Skilling all the models give ORD 2-4" amounts except the EURO at ~1.5".

 

If banding is good enough and winds aloft are fairly light, then I could see those high ratios becoming true for this first event. Nice discussion by MKX.

 

The total snowfall this weekend per the RPM.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT 18z Update:

 

 

 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WESTAND NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT MID EVENING NEAR RFD TO LATE EVENING INTHE CHICAGO/NW INDIANA AREA AS A CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. LOOKSTO BE A 2-3 HR OR SO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTERSNOW FOLLOWING THIS INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSSEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING SHOW LOWESTVSBY IN THE 1 TO 2SM RANGE AND EXPECT THIS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OFCONDITIONS LOCALLY TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF DROPS BELOW 1SM ARE APOSSIBILITY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY BY DAYBREAKSATURDAY. PEAK ACCUMULATION RATES OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH PERHOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALLCORRESPONDING WITH THE LOWEST VSBY IN THE TAF.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Call for tonight?

 

I'm liking my 5.1" for all systems combined.

 

LOT's 2-3 looks good, so 2.5"  With another 3-4 in the pipeline we'll need to miss out on a couple for me not to bust, but my experience with clippers is that, like summer ridge rollers, tend to ride over the same areas and only slowly shift tracks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

clipper 1 :yikes:

I guess you could argue that these are 10:1 ratios but still, usually you look to the clown maps to make you feel better

Hopefully the GFS holds. This is also about the time that we can start to incorporate short term models/obs/trends to see what has the best handle on things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT is thinking 2-4 inches for the northern half of  the CWA.

 

 

 

THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE(WARM AIR ADVECTION) EVENT TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BACKSMORE WESTERLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 285 K SURFACE FROM VARIOUS MODELSINDICATE UPWARDS OF 50 KT OF FLOW DEVELOPING NEARLY PERPENDICULARTO THE PRESSURE CONTOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID MOISTENINGOF THE COLUMN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW SNOW TO BEGIN OVERSPREADINGTHE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THE SNOW TO BEGIN ACROSS MYNORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES BY 8 OR 9 THIS EVENING AND IN THE CHICAGOAREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING.CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE NOT USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BIG SNOWFALL EVENTSBECAUSE THEY TEND TO BE MUCH DRIER SYSTEMS. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGESNOW MAKER FOR THE AREA EITHER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE THEBIGGEST SNOWFALL TO DATE FOR THE SEASON...AT LEAST IN CHICAGO.THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERNINDIANA WILL RESULT IN A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OFAROUND 3200 METERS. CONSIDERING THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILLBE VERY GOOD IN THIS LAYER IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A VERYEFFICIENT AND HIGH RATIO DRY FLUFFY SNOWFALL EVENT. I USED A 20 TO25 TO 1 RATIO FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIOACROSS MY CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY WARMERPROFILE SHOULD CREATE A LOWER RATIO. SO ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS DONOT APPEAR TO VARY LARGELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MYAREA...THE HIGH RATIOS NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW.I AM CURRENTLY THINKING THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL FALL NORTH FROMROCKFORD AND CHICAGO AND INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...WITH 1 TO 3INCHES ACROSS MY CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSOSUPPORTED BY THE GARCIA METHOD...WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO 4 INCHES.NO HEADLINES ARE PLANED DUE TO THE LOW IMPACT AND BEING JUST UNDERTHE 3 TO 5 INCH CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT is thinking 2-4 inches for the northern half of  the CWA.

 

Between the deep DGZ and the high snow ratios the area looks to do really well tonight. :snowing:

 

Wow, GFS going all out imo! That 9.8" record might in jeopardy by mid next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...