huronicane Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 From Skilling's facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the ggem comes in with it's own solution...putting the most significant event in the monday night -tuesday timeframe. Looks like just two clippers....Saturday and Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LOT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AT FIRST GLANCE IT APPEARS THAT A BOOST IN POPS AND PERHAPSSOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH CLIPPERTONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 According to Skilling all the models give ORD 2-4" amounts except the EURO at ~1.5". If banding is good enough and winds aloft are fairly light, then I could see those high ratios becoming true for this first event. Nice discussion by MKX. The total snowfall this weekend per the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Forecasts for clipper #1 might actually bust low for a change. Ex. If .16" liquid equiv. fell with 25:1 ratio that would be 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro looks kinda dry around here for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro looks kinda dry around here for tomorrow. Not the GGEM. I think you'll be good for an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro looks kinda dry around here for tomorrow. T-1", final call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LOT 18z Update: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WESTAND NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT MID EVENING NEAR RFD TO LATE EVENING INTHE CHICAGO/NW INDIANA AREA AS A CLIPPER CROSSES THE AREA. LOOKSTO BE A 2-3 HR OR SO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTERSNOW FOLLOWING THIS INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSSEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING SHOW LOWESTVSBY IN THE 1 TO 2SM RANGE AND EXPECT THIS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OFCONDITIONS LOCALLY TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF DROPS BELOW 1SM ARE APOSSIBILITY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES LOOK LIKELY BY DAYBREAKSATURDAY. PEAK ACCUMULATION RATES OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH PERHOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE 2-3 HOUR WINDOW OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALLCORRESPONDING WITH THE LOWEST VSBY IN THE TAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just looked the Euro, boy it does screw LAF. Better north and south. Seen it happen before here with clippers, so that's not something to dismiss. Think 0.5-1.0" is a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 More expansive view of this weekend's snowfall per the RPM. Looks like this first system will be in two pieces. The main piece tonight then another a bit later on Saturday. NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 T-1", final call? Everything else looks better...I'm not gonna be particularly freaked out by the Euro...if I wanted to be cute I might reduce the 2-3" by a half inch but that is kinda dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS staying most consistent, what is this like 8 runs now in a row showing 5-8" of snow for ORD out these 4 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS staying most consistent, what is this like 8 runs now in a row showing 5-8" of snow for ORD out these 4 systems. gfs snow.gif Yeah, it's consistent and currently on my good side. Worried about my 3.3 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 lol at the 0 QPF right over my head. More expansive view of this weekend's snowfall per the RPM. Looks like this first system will be in two pieces. The main piece tonight then another a bit later on Saturday. rpm_region.jpg NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, it's consistent and currently on my good side. Worried about my 3.3 call. Call for tonight? I'm liking my 5.1" for all systems combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Call for tonight? I'm liking my 5.1" for all systems combined. LOT's 2-3 looks good, so 2.5" With another 3-4 in the pipeline we'll need to miss out on a couple for me not to bust, but my experience with clippers is that, like summer ridge rollers, tend to ride over the same areas and only slowly shift tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just looked the Euro, boy it does screw LAF. Better north and south. Seen it happen before here with clippers, so that's not something to dismiss. Think 0.5-1.0" is a good call right now. 18z NAM cut our QPF in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z NAM cut our QPF in half. clipper 1 I guess you could argue that these are 10:1 ratios but still, usually you look to the clown maps to make you feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z NAM cut our QPF in half. Dr. No FTW. 0.5-1.0" final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 clipper 1 I guess you could argue that these are 10:1 ratios but still, usually you look to the clown maps to make you feel better Hopefully the GFS holds. This is also about the time that we can start to incorporate short term models/obs/trends to see what has the best handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Dr. No FTW. 0.5-1.0" final call. Chad is going 1-3". I'm not sure whether to be happy or scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LOT is thinking 2-4 inches for the northern half of the CWA. THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE(WARM AIR ADVECTION) EVENT TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BACKSMORE WESTERLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 285 K SURFACE FROM VARIOUS MODELSINDICATE UPWARDS OF 50 KT OF FLOW DEVELOPING NEARLY PERPENDICULARTO THE PRESSURE CONTOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID MOISTENINGOF THE COLUMN THIS EVENING AND ALLOW SNOW TO BEGIN OVERSPREADINGTHE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THE SNOW TO BEGIN ACROSS MYNORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES BY 8 OR 9 THIS EVENING AND IN THE CHICAGOAREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM THIS EVENING.CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE NOT USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BIG SNOWFALL EVENTSBECAUSE THEY TEND TO BE MUCH DRIER SYSTEMS. THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGESNOW MAKER FOR THE AREA EITHER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE THEBIGGEST SNOWFALL TO DATE FOR THE SEASON...AT LEAST IN CHICAGO.THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERNINDIANA WILL RESULT IN A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OFAROUND 3200 METERS. CONSIDERING THAT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILLBE VERY GOOD IN THIS LAYER IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A VERYEFFICIENT AND HIGH RATIO DRY FLUFFY SNOWFALL EVENT. I USED A 20 TO25 TO 1 RATIO FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIOACROSS MY CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY WARMERPROFILE SHOULD CREATE A LOWER RATIO. SO ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS DONOT APPEAR TO VARY LARGELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MYAREA...THE HIGH RATIOS NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW.I AM CURRENTLY THINKING THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL FALL NORTH FROMROCKFORD AND CHICAGO AND INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...WITH 1 TO 3INCHES ACROSS MY CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSOSUPPORTED BY THE GARCIA METHOD...WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO 4 INCHES.NO HEADLINES ARE PLANED DUE TO THE LOW IMPACT AND BEING JUST UNDERTHE 3 TO 5 INCH CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 thru 84....not much better. 'big' (using term loosely), synoptic winner is north central OH. Only good thing is I would win the ORD pool with that one, (of course who knows what's coming after that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Chad is going 1-3". I'm not sure whether to be happy or scared. He's not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18zgfs def looks better than nam for the chicago and indy crowd. Short range models look better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18zgfs def looks better than nam for the chicago and indy crowd. Short range models look better too. best run yet for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wowza, biggest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LOT is thinking 2-4 inches for the northern half of the CWA. Between the deep DGZ and the high snow ratios the area looks to do really well tonight. Wow, GFS going all out imo! That 9.8" record might in jeopardy by mid next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 and the 'event' at the end of next week is now snow according to the gfs damn, this could be one snowy week for the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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