Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol, should have seen that coming. Of course clippers are typically weak, but not all. Far too early to make any claims in either direction. We'll see how it all shakes out. LOT has 1-2"/1-3" in the p & c's for clipper #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 1-4 multi-storm total, LOT-wide. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 clipper city on the 12z GFS, one after another the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 clipper city on the 12z GFS, one after another the next week. clipper city.gif That looks good on that model! Hopefully that's an accurate depiction of what will be reality, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 1-4 multi-storm total, LOT-wide. Take it to the bank. For your area, maybe. For all of NE IL? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 For your area, maybe. For all of NE IL? Nope. 1-4 call covers all of Chicago and the 'burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z NAM a good hit for cycloneville/DVN area. Given possible banding and high ratios, def could see a 3-4" band with this one somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I like an early call of 2-3" for LAF for the Saturday system. I think ratios will be better farther north with a better DGZ depth but they could still be decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I like an early call of 2-3" for LAF for the Saturday system. I think ratios will be better farther north with a better DGZ depth but they could still be decent here. Looks like the GFS and NAM are around 0.15-0.20" for us. If we can squeeze out some decent ratios, your range looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like the GFS and NAM are around 0.15-0.20" for us. If we can squeeze out some decent ratios, your range looks solid. I'm kinda glad it's falling early in the morning. Temps look to get near freezing on Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm kinda glad it's falling early in the morning. Temps look to get near freezing on Saturday afternoon. Lots of driving around town Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The Tuesday clipper is looking really nice, keeps trending further south and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 probs of a DGZ >200mb deep with the first clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z GFS accumulated snowfall through D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 0z NAM with a move north. MKE in the game. Seems to have a rather expansive area of snow for a clipper, and the overall theme doesn't change...just slight adjustments. #2 going farther south, but weaker than its predecessor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z GFS accumulated snowfall through D6. gfsclippers.jpg 0z GFS looks about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 0z GFS looks about the same. Same snowfall corridor position I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not sure how good a job this does but the SREF has ratios near 30:1 for a time before dropping to 20:1 in northern IL. Have never seen them that high for here when I've used this product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like YYZ's best shot for a couple of inches is with the final clipper on the 6th. Everything else gets quashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12z NAM looks slightly more "wet" for round #1...especially for parts IL, IN, and OH. Through 33, number #2 looks slightly stronger...versus the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 NAM looks like it has 4 clippers showing up in the next 84 hrs. 1 and 2 are pretty much unchanged, (maybe 1 is a bit stronger). 3 comes thru monday and is further north...pretty much an i-80 event. the 4th is starting to dig into the northern plains, and it looks like it might have some room to dig and become the strongest of all, probably effecting our area late Tuesday, (if it digs enough it could raise heights out in front to cause temp issues as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 From MKX A DECENT ISENTROPIC/WARM AIR ADVECTION EVENT ARRIVES QUICKLY TONIGHTWITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY. NEARLYALL THE MODELS BRING QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MOST FOCUSEDACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. THIS EVENT IS SHOWING AMODERATE TO STRONG SIGNAL OF EXTREME SNOW RATIOS. THE NAM/MEANSREF/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATED DENDRITEGROWTH REGION /-12 TO -18C/ STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY650MB. THERE IS OMEGA WITH IT...BUT IT CERTAINLY ISN/TIMPRESSIVE...THAT/S A NEGATIVE. THE CARIBOU SNOW RATIO NUMBERS ARERUNNING IN THE 20-25 TO 1 RANGE...GENERATING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWACCUM. THE SPC SREF SNOW RATIO SHOWS A RANGE FROM 20 TO 1 IN THESOUTHWEST CORNER TO 35 TO 1 IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AND...WINDS WILL BEVERY LIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE DENDRITE CLUMPS TOGETHER...ALLOWINGFOR A VERY DRY...FLUFFY ACCUM. GIVEN THE SIGNALS...HAVE BUMPED SNOWACCUMS TO 2-2.5 IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THENORTHEAST CWA. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THELOWS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE WAA AND PRECIP SHOULDPROVIDE RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 From MKX A DECENT ISENTROPIC/WARM AIR ADVECTION EVENT ARRIVES QUICKLY TONIGHTWITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY. NEARLYALL THE MODELS BRING QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MOST FOCUSEDACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. THIS EVENT IS SHOWING AMODERATE TO STRONG SIGNAL OF EXTREME SNOW RATIOS. THE NAM/MEANSREF/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SATURATED DENDRITEGROWTH REGION /-12 TO -18C/ STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE TO ROUGHLY650MB. THERE IS OMEGA WITH IT...BUT IT CERTAINLY ISN/TIMPRESSIVE...THAT/S A NEGATIVE. THE CARIBOU SNOW RATIO NUMBERS ARERUNNING IN THE 20-25 TO 1 RANGE...GENERATING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWACCUM. THE SPC SREF SNOW RATIO SHOWS A RANGE FROM 20 TO 1 IN THESOUTHWEST CORNER TO 35 TO 1 IN THE NORTHERN CWA. AND...WINDS WILL BEVERY LIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE DENDRITE CLUMPS TOGETHER...ALLOWINGFOR A VERY DRY...FLUFFY ACCUM. GIVEN THE SIGNALS...HAVE BUMPED SNOWACCUMS TO 2-2.5 IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THENORTHEAST CWA. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THELOWS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE WAA AND PRECIP SHOULDPROVIDE RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. I wish I could buy consistent 35:1 ratios for this event, but when does this actually happen when the snow is falling so light, I would think the rates would ideally have to be a bit heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wish I could buy consistent 35:1 ratios for this event, but when does this actually happen when the snow is falling so light, I would think the rates would ideally have to be a bit heavier. The SREF has been pretty consistent at showing these impressive snow ratios so they seem plausible especially with temps in the single digits. The SREF shows 35:1 ratios all the way down to the WI/IL broader. Ratios lower to around 25:1 throughout the night as temperatures warm. So taking the 12z NAM and the 0.10" of qpf it shows for RAC, 2-3 inches seem reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The SREF has been pretty consistent at showing these impressive snow ratios so they seem plausible especially with temps in the single digits. The SREF shows 35:1 ratios all the way down to the WI/IL broader. Ratios lower to around 25:1 throughout the night as temperatures warm. So taking the 12z NAM and the 0.10" of qpf it shows for RAC, 2-3 inches seem reasonable. I still think it's iffy if only due to the rates. Also, the GFS Ensembles in general seem to indicate 0.05" at best with the first clipper this far north. Even with great snow ratios, probably 1" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I still think it's iffy if only due to the rates. Also, the GFS Ensembles in general seem to indicate 0.05" at best with the first clipper this far north. Even with great snow ratios, probably 1" or so. Even with the light rates the fluffy nature of the snow will allow for easy accumulations. Fwiw the 12z GFS looks wetter, with a .10" qpf stripe along the southern counties. With that said I'd go with 1.7" at MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Even with the light rates the fluffy nature of the snow will allow for easy accumulations. Fwiw the 12z GFS looks wetter, with a .10" qpf stripe along the southern counties. With that said I'd go with 1.7" at MKE. I hope you're right, and if you were talking 1.7" for both clippers combined (overnight and then Saturday evening/night's clipper), I could buy that. The overnight one looks stronger, but light QPF (<0.05 generally) looks to fall with the second impulse just 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I hope you're right, and if you were talking 1.7" for both clippers combined (overnight and then Saturday evening/night's clipper), I could buy that. The overnight one looks stronger, but light QPF (<0.05 generally) looks to fall with the second impulse just 24 hours later. The 1.7" was for tonight only. The second clipper with its light qpf and lower snow ratios makes an inch or less seem likely. I would say 2.5" for both clippers combined at MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS continues to paint .3-.4 for this stretch over NE IL...ratios should trend down over the series but the mean/median guesses in the contest thread are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 nam and gfs are world's apart after #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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