Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Clipper express v 2.0 (February 1-6)


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 754
  • Created
  • Last Reply

DTX goes with a WWA for the lower 2 tiers of counties for a quick 2-3" during rush hour.

I wonder if the gridlocked commutes of recent days have anything to do with that. Though this should be a steady light snow instead of the blinding squalls. After lowballing accum forecasts all week I say this time they are too high...its looking more like an inch, though I hope Im wrong. Tuesdays clipper now looks more interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder if the gridlocked commutes of recent days have anything to do with that. Though this should be a steady light snow instead of the blinding squalls. After lowballing accum forecasts all week I say this time they are too high...its looking more like an inch, though I hope Im wrong. Tuesdays clipper now looks more interesting.

Agreez

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you looking at the same radar I am!?!? Look upstream man, we are golden for at least 2"..

 

Upstream looks good, but I'm almost expecting the snow in EC Minnesota and WC Wisconsin to dry up before it gets here.  Look how hard it is for Milwaukee County to saturate.  I was proven wrong in my pessimism with Friday night's clipper, so I will shut up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wonder if the gridlocked commutes of recent days have anything to do with that. Though this should be a steady light snow instead of the blinding squalls. After lowballing accum forecasts all week I say this time they are too high...its looking more like an inch, though I hope Im wrong. Tuesdays clipper now looks more interesting.

 

 

I think we will get more....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Banding over far northeast Iowa starting to get more pronounced as the vort max approaches.  Most of the models intensify the precip from this area on southeast after midnight.  The main show in northeast IL, including Chicago should be in the 3-7am time frame.  Still looks like some isolated 6-7" potential over the northeast corner of IL to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAP really showing that LES. Might be overdoing the intensity though.

 

RAP_255_2013020404_F16_CREF_SURFACE.png

 

The main limiting factor would be marginal delta T's.  Everything else looks good enough, but it's late in the season for LES now, and since we've been so cold (most of) these past two weeks, we have lake SSTs that are hovering in the mid 30s, not the low 40s like they were recently.

 

That doesn't mean I'm cancelling the band, but it's just something to bear in mind as a limiting factor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Best snow is in a band from Prairie Du Chien to Waukegan. Lots of virga to the south of that line and reflectivity decreases towards the north, the sweetspot is fairly wide at least. This will be a good snow for Janesiville, Monroe, Rockford, and a large swath of Chicago. Less intense but significant snowfall in Madison and Milwaukee, good to be north of the line since dry air is killing ratios to the south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Best snow is in a band from Prairie Du Chien to Waukegan. Lots of virga to the south of that line and reflectivity decreases towards the north, the sweetspot is fairly wide at least. This will be a good snow for Janesiville, Monroe, Rockford, and a large swath of Chicago. Less intense but significant snowfall in Madison and Milwaukee, good to be north of the line since dry air is killing ratios to the south.

 

I sure am not seeing much here either.  Dry air is probably more an issue here than to the south, and I am not surprised one bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I sure am not seeing much here either.  Dry air is probably more an issue here than to the south, and I am not surprised one bit.

Flake size isn't great here but dry air is literally killing the snow to the south, its confined above 2000 ft just south of Chicago, classic virga radar holes at DVN and LOT. Chicago itself is in the precip fortunately, but I bet the flakes are puny and dilapidated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flake size isn't great here but dry air is literally killing the snow to the south, its confined above 2000 ft just south of Chicago, classic virga radar holes at DVN and LOT. Chicago itself is in the precip fortunately, but I bet the flakes are puny and dilapidated.

 

I guess I meant in the south portion of the band, the lighter overall returns are in the northern half of the band.  I looked out, and I will say it was snowing better than I thought, and than the returns showed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess I meant in the south portion of the band, the lighter overall returns are in the northern half of the band.  I looked out, and I will say it was snowing better than I thought, and than the returns showed.

Remember LOT's radar is being a piece of crud right now, so any composite regional imagery is going to exaggerate reflectivity towards Chicago. I'm sticking to DVN and MKX.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 and change down and snowing at a decent but not impressive clip...going to need LE to pull through to hit my call, otherwise this is yet another in a long line of busts high for me.

 

Some banding on LOT radar with several mores hours of snow to go. With or without LES, think you guys should at least approach 4".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...