turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I gotta root for the surprise north trend, sorry Chicago folk. Light snow crossing the Mississippi into Wisconsin, feels like deja vu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 For those looking for south shifts, the RAP has been terrible and north all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 make a call? 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah Alek. I think this might be 20-25 miles further south. That's ok, the trade off might be a boost in ratios. There's those winds off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah for those of you on the northern side of things, at least there isn't going to be a sharp cutoff in amts like on the southern side. Ratios will be higher as well, so even folks a little north of Madison should do good. That also includes Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Interesting part of the Milwaukee disco. 6"+ amounts mentioned. THERE IS SOME EQPV...INDICATIVE OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...THATSPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THUS...THERE IS SOMECONVECTIVE SNOW BAND POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTSTHAN FORECAST. FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A STRONG WINTER WEATHERADVISORY SITUATION OVERALL...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AMOUNTS INEXCESS OF 6 INCHES IF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP.FOR NOW...WENT WITH A 4 TO 6 INCH ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF A DELLS TOMILWAUKEE LINE...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN DODGE...WASHINGTON ANDOZAUKEE COUNTIES. LOWER AMOUNTS WERE USED IN THE FAR NORTH.THUS...ADDED DODGE...WASHINGTON AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES TO THEADVISORY...GIVEN THE AMOUNTS AFFECTING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.ADJUSTED START TIME OF ADVISORY FOR MILWAUKEE COUNTY TO MIDNIGHT CSTGIVEN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 6" may be a stretch here unless you go further west out towards Lake Geneva . Cant complain though since 4" would still be our biggest snowfall of the season. WIZ064-065-069>072-040545-/O.CON.KMKX.WW.Y.0005.130204T0400Z-130204T1500Z/JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA336 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM CST AND 10 PM CST.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.* WINDS...WEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING...TURNING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 6" may be a stretch here unless you go further west out towards Lake Geneva . Cant complain though since 4" would still be our biggest snowfall of the season. I think Racine has a shot at 5". Kenosha may have a shot at 6", especially if there is some lake enhancement in the morning. Hard to believe in 6 to 7 hours it's going to be ripping snow with it being completely sunny now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think Racine has a shot at 5". Kenosha may have a shot at 6", especially if there is some lake enhancement in the morning. Hard to believe in 6 to 7 hours it's going to be ripping snow with it being completely sunny now. Cloud cover just moving into Madison http://mapmaker.aos.wisc.edu/scr3/sat/g8/g8msnflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Hope they're right. Sorry, but for Lafayette area the new PnC says "New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible." The higher amounts in the discussion is for the Muncie-Winchester area. We could be wrong though. I hope you get more if that's what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think Racine has a shot at 5". Kenosha may have a shot at 6", especially if there is some lake enhancement in the morning. Hard to believe in 6 to 7 hours it's going to be ripping snow with it being completely sunny now. We have a chance but I think we will be on the northern edge of the heaviest snow band, either way we should have slightly better snow ratios to help us out. Glad I don't have to be driving during rush hour tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Everyone from Milwaukee to Madison should put all their fans outside and point them to the north, with teamwork we can steal this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Lol, gonna need some big fans. Now I'm just starting to see some high clouds filtering out the setting sun. Band should fire off just southwest of MSP if models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 HRRR pretty much following MKX's forecast track: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013020319&plotName=1ref_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2 Precip totals, you can see a quarter inch bullseye in the northeast corner of Iowa in the last frame http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013020319&plotName=totp_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 18Z GFS a better run for those further south...LAF picks up 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 HRRR pretty much following MKX's forecast track: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013020319&plotName=1ref_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2 Precip totals, you can see a quarter inch bullseye in the northeast corner of Iowa in the last frame http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013020319&plotName=totp_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2 That would leave me high and dry. go southern trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 HRRR pretty much following MKX's forecast track: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013020319&plotName=1ref_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2 Precip totals, you can see a quarter inch bullseye in the northeast corner of Iowa in the last frame http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013020319&plotName=totp_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2 Looks good for us in southern WI. Bullseye over Geos at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Looking good here in Kenosha--it's LONG overdue. Big negative is how people forget to drive in this type of precip. Saturday morning was an absolute mess--expect worse tomorrow on the way to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Good lord, 0.5"! Spwild in Gurnee is in that bullseye too. New media briefing from Romeoville. They're emphasizing the LES and the rush hour impacts. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Looking good to add 2-4 more inches here in Michiana on top of the settling 3 we already have had. More to the NW with heavier lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Good lord, 0.5"! Spwild in Gurnee is in that bullseye too. New media briefing from Romeoville. They're emphasizing the LES and the rush hour impacts. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=webbriefing Whoever made that needed to turn up their microphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Whoever made that needed to turn up their microphone. No doubt. I had to plug my headphones in and turn up the volume to hear it clearly! --- Magoos here's a new map posted - almost 5" for you. The band orientation is pitched a little bit too far SE I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 18Z GFS a better run for those further south...LAF picks up 1-2. The GFS is probably not handling the sharp gradient well. Lower-resolution global models tend to not do so well with sharp cut-offs for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The RAP doing it's usual trend south as it gets into better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Also worth pointing out how awful the RAP is initializing returns over MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The RAP doing it's usual trend south as it gets into better range. yeah slowly getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think people northeast of Joliet have more breathing room now. Looks like the band is setting up right over Mankato, MN as opposed to the southern suburbs of MSP. This model is getting close now. Prairie du Chien to Beloit to Lake Forest probably FTW on highest moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 February 1-7th 8.4" call for ORD looking strong.. Chicago storms prediction is slowly melting away in to a Matty Puddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The RAP trends over the past few runs by the time you get to 9z or so are so classic for the model this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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