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Clipper express v 2.0 (February 1-6)

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

I think at best we get something like what we've gotten this afternoon, flakes that amount to nothing. Temps in the upper 20's, during the daytime, weak rates, blah blah.

Here's IND's rationale for going higher:

850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT EARLY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FEEL THAT MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION...SO WENT ABOVE MOS POPS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

HIGHEST QPF WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED. ACROSS OUR AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...QUICKLY TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE INDY METRO...AND ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH LESSENS ANY ACCUMULATION THERE.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Here's IND's rationale for going higher:

850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT EARLY MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT FEEL THAT MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION...SO WENT ABOVE MOS POPS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER FORCING REMAINS BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

HIGHEST QPF WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED. ACROSS OUR AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...QUICKLY TAPERING TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE INDY METRO...AND ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS ACROSS THE SOUTH. RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH LESSENS ANY ACCUMULATION THERE.

 

Hope they're right. 

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

The half inch of snow or so I'll get tomorrow morning would finally put me over 10" for this winter. :bag:  IL/WI border to along/north of the Indiana Toll road should do well tomorrow...narrow 4-5" ???

Half an inch? lol Your office just put you under a WWA. They've got the northern 2/3's of the CWA in the advisory. Of course, with the slight northern shift, I'm left out, one county south. Oh well, I'll take some stat padding scraps. I predict a solid 3" for Warsaw.

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ILSNOW

ILSNOW

Posted
Posted

ord aviation update

 

THE BIG CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS AND ACROSS
NORTHERN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE LAST
FEW...AND ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW COULD EVEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM
ROCKFORD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE...AND POTENTIALLY DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. I HIT THE 18 UTC TAFS HARDER
AND LOWER VIS DOWN TO 3/4 OVERNIGHT. I ALSO MOVED UP THE START TIME
BY ABOUT AN HOUR. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RAPID ONSET TO THE
SNOW...AND IT COULD EVEN BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE FLOW
WILL TURN OFF THE LAKE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP STILL EXISTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS IN
PLACE TO CONTINUE TO SEE LOW VISIBILITIES IN SHSN. IT APPEARS THE
SNOW WILL ABATE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. HOWEVER...KGYY MAY CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME SHSN INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
 

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Northern_IN_Wx

Northern_IN_Wx

Posted
Posted

Half an inch? lol Your office just put you under a WWA. They've got the northern 2/3's of the CWA in the advisory. Of course, with the slight northern shift, I'm left out, one county south. Oh well, I'll take some stat padding scraps. I predict a solid 3" for Warsaw.

 

I hope you are right.  I don't blame them for issuing a WWA this far south as there could be a rather sharp snow gradient across Marshall/Kosciusko/Whitley counties.  Gut feeling is that the pivot point will likely be north of our backyards with a quick 1-2" possible...2-4 (iso 5) SBN/Elkhart to just north of FWA. 

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

I hope you are right.  I don't blame them for issuing a WWA this far south as there could be a rather sharp snow gradient across Marshall/Kosciusko/Whitley counties.  Gut feeling is that the pivot point will likely be north of our backyards with a quick 1-2" possible...2-4 (iso 5) SBN/Elkhart to just north of FWA. 

I understand. I was just pokin' you. Could be advisory criteria (3+) in northern Kosciusko and only an inch in the southern part of the county, but they had to include the whole county. Hopefully, you'll catch the heavier band.

 

post-830-0-11457900-1359923468_thumb.jpg

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Northern_IN_Wx

Northern_IN_Wx

Posted
Posted

I understand. I was just pokin' you. Could be advisory criteria (3+) in northern Kosciusko and only an inch in the southern part of the county, but they had to include the whole county. Hopefully, you'll catch the heavier band.

 

attachicon.gifUntitled-1 copy.jpg

 

Yeah I wish they would let us add zones (break up Kosciusko north to south for example), especially for our lake effect zones and for headlines.  We've actually been trying to do this but have been told it would create a lot of other problems. Frustrating...

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I wish they would let us add zones (break up Kosciusko north to south for example), especially for our lake effect zones and for headlines.  We've actually been trying to do this but have been told it would create a lot of other problems. Frustrating...

Yes, I can imagine it would be frustrating, especially when trying to issue a specific, accurate forecast for users' back yards.  I see it a lot with the single band LES. I would think that the 'problems' could be worked out if the end result is a better forecast.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

ORD: 4.5"

Alek: 4.7"

Batavia: 3.6"

Cortland: 2.6"

Mt Geos: 5.3"

Streamwood: 1.1" (sketchy measuring)

 

Locked and loaded. Final.

 

Tim, it looks like we could be on the losing end of the gradient. Too bad this couldn't a 'spread the wealth' type clipper.

 

You have better chance at seeing something than Ryan or I. I'll be pleased with some flakes at this point. 

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

We might be on the losing end for this entire stretch.

 

Same for here and the QC.  We line up just southwest of the zone of success. 

 

Some narrow bands of decent snow quickly developing near Marshall MN.  Looks like this is the beginning of the more intense snowfall that should spread southeast later this eve.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

HPC loves Geos.

 

:wub:

 

RAP has some good banding like you guys pointed out. Hopefully the RAP is not over doing itself, like it has in the past.

 

The last complete run has the 0.30"+ area aimed for Lake County.

No more south shifts now! :lol:

 

RAP_255_2013020319_F18_PCPIN_18_HR.png

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