cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just noticed there isn't an advisory out yet for Chicagoland. Not a good idea IMO considering the incoming moderate event coinciding with super bowl Sunday. There's gonna be a lot of people out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just noticed there isn't an advisory out yet for Chicagoland. Not a good idea IMO considering the incoming moderate event coinciding with super bowl Sunday. There's gonna be a lot of people out tonight. I don't think things start sticking until after midnight...but we'll probably get an advisory for I88 north soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just noticed there isn't an advisory out yet for Chicagoland. Not a good idea IMO considering the incoming moderate event coinciding with super bowl Sunday. There's gonna be a lot of people out tonight. drove home back in 2008 after the super bowl after that surprise quick +SN event that night That was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Joe will have the underground heaters on full blast. They won't be back up ann running until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 WI/IL border looks golden. I like that the models have nudged north a bit, but a slight nudge more north wouldnt hurt. DTX once again talking 20-1 ratios, although much of our snow the last few days has actually been closer to 25-30:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 WI/IL border looks golden. I like that the models have nudged north a bit, but a slight nudge more north wouldnt hurt. DTX once again talking 20-1 ratios, although much of our snow the last few days has actually been closer to 25-30:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 They won't be back up ann running until tomorrow. You look pretty close to ground zero. You and Geos may be battling it out for the highest total in the IL sub. Kevlon in Woodstock should do great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Lol. The WRF-ARW shows a finger of higher moisture over the lake stretching towards Alek. I'm guessing that is the model picking up on the lake influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Lol. The WRF-ARW shows a finger of higher moisture over the lake stretching towards Alek. I'm guessing that is the model picking up on the lake influence. 0204lakeinfl.png Nice. Gotta love it when a storm gives you the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The half inch of snow or so I'll get tomorrow morning would finally put me over 10" for this winter. IL/WI border to along/north of the Indiana Toll road should do well tomorrow...narrow 4-5" ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 LOT just pulled the trigger and issued an advisory for 2-5". Lol, it's ok if a system give the moisture finger towards you! Anyone is Cook or Lake County could get the lake influence - not sure it would come this far north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 LOT goes WWA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TOWARDMIDDAY MONDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATION...2 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTEDALONG AND NORTH OF A ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO LINE. LOCALIZEDSLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS COOK COUNTY IF LAKEENHANCEMENT CAN OCCUR LATE MONDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR MAYOCCUR AT TIMES LEADING TO RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS.THE HEAVIEST INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM APPROXIMATELY 11 PM TO 4AM FROM THE ROCKFORD TO MARENGO AREAS AND BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY3 AM AND 8 AM FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CHICAGOMETRO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Noticed that. Makes you wonder a bit. Many of the models have shown the precip shield "curl" up a bit as it moves through northern IL. These little vigorous waves with high-ratio snows/fat dendrites that have a nice little pivot to them as they move through often overperform at the pivot point. That's what we benefited from with the super clipper of Dec '10. Not expecting anything like that with this but still should be a very interesting event for a localized area. 4km has a solid 4"+ band from ORD points north. MSN to ORD express, classic Alberta Clipper track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I'm just me nitpicking, and it's due to it be a county by county warning thing I guess...but it just looks strange sometimes. Inside the red line, places aren't in the advisory, but are sort of surrounded by them. Like the NE corner of DeKalb county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Ended up with 0.2" at ORD and 0.7" here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 So ORD now stands at 6.0" for the season. 3.8" to tie, 3.9" to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I'm just me nitpicking, and it's due to it be a county by county warning thing I guess...but it just looks strange sometimes. Inside the red line, places aren't in the advisory, but are sort of surrounded by them. Like the NE corner of DeKalb county. Screen Shot 2013-02-03 at 1.19.24 PM.png This is why they need additional zones or polygon-like based winter headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 This is why they need additional zones or polygon-like based winter headlines. I agree. I guess it's not as important as severe weather warnings, like immediate reaction type situations...but it just looks a little silly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I'm just me nitpicking, and it's due to it be a county by county warning thing I guess...but it just looks strange sometimes. Inside the red line, places aren't in the advisory, but are sort of surrounded by them. Like the NE corner of DeKalb county. Screen Shot 2013-02-03 at 1.19.24 PM.png Yep, could see some in northeast DeKalb county getting more than someone near the Aurora Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I'm just me nitpicking, and it's due to it be a county by county warning thing I guess...but it just looks strange sometimes. Inside the red line, places aren't in the advisory, but are sort of surrounded by them. Like the NE corner of DeKalb county. Screen Shot 2013-02-03 at 1.19.24 PM.png Another county that could be in it is Stephenson County. Really sharp gradient on the southern edge. Polygon advisories would work good with a system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just to add.. I prefer snows like this... Sunny days, snow at nights... Refresh the snowpack.. Keep the train coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z GFS gives us 0.23" liquid, we could be talking 4-5" if that happens, especially since we're on the north side of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Returns starting to blossom over MN...here's to an over performer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 LOT update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1235 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... 1230 PM CST WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO VALPARAISO FOR THE APPROACHING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANALYSIS OF LATEST OBS AND 12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS BRIEFLY SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEARLY 0.4 INCHES OR MORE THAN TWICE THEIR CURRENT VALUES. A WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY WITH FORECAST TIME- HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATING NEGATIVE EPV DEVELOPING ABOVE THIS LAYER OF FOCUSED FORCING ALLOWING ENHANCEMENT OF VERTICAL MOTION/CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. IN ADDITION...THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE WELL ALIGNED WITHIN THE FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR ABOUT A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING THIS EARLIER AND EASTERN AREAS LATER. BETWEEN THE FORCING...FAVORABLE MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THE INFLUX IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THESE TO ACT ON...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH GOOD FLAKE SIZE AND EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE FAVORED ALONG/NORTH OF A ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO VALPARAISO LINE...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH. IN OTHER WORDS IS IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SOUTHERN AREAS OF KANE...DUPAGE...COOK...LAKE INDIANA...AND PORTER INDIANA MAY SEE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW BUT IT MAY ALSO FALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN EAST THEN NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MID TO LATE MORNING LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AS THE FETCH INCREASES AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEAST. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACROSS COOK COUNTY DURING THE LATE MORNING. NOT EXACTLY CLEAR HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMS...BUT IF IT IS WELL ORGANIZED THEN A QUICK ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. ANY ENHANCED BAND DOES LOOK TO STEADILY PIVOT SOUTHWARD SO IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED...BUT AGAIN COULD BE QUITE INTENSE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NW INDIANA...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT PROCESSES WILL BE BETTER FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN NORTH. HAVE KEPT THE HEADLINE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VS. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY BECAUSE MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE FROM THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH LAKE PROCESSES GETTING UNDERWAY FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME BEFORE WINDING DOWN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT MONDAY EVENING AS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A CONVERGENCE SINGLE BAND DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Returns starting to blossom over MN...here's to an over performer It's going to be easy to extrapolate who will be getting the good snow once this starts laying down a snow swath in Minnesota, basically just have to look at the radar accumulated precip and draw a slightly curved line in the direction of motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's going to be easy to extrapolate who will be getting the good snow once this starts laying down a snow swath in Minnesota, basically just have to look at the radar accumulated precip and draw a slightly curved line in the direction of motion yep, part of why I feel so good about my chances with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's not accumulating anymore, but it's still snowing here. Window dressing for sure. IND has 1-2" in my p&c for this next one. Eh, maybe 1-2 flakes. Monday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's not accumulating anymore, but it's still snowing here. Window dressing for sure. IND has 1-2" in my p&c for this next one. Eh, maybe 1-2 flakes. Monday: Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 28. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Yeah I'm not sure about 1-2. Model qpf is paltry (even the "bullish" solution are less than .05) and thermal profiles aren't favorable for very high ratios. I think a coating is our ceiling for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Ready to see this thing stack up like the Groundhog Day pancakes served at the local festival breakfasts this weekend. We will be in Libertyville for game and wife going to stay behind. Her commute from there to work will be a hell of a lot easier (5 miles vs. 32). My 5 a.m.'er down to Elmhurst will be another story. I'm looking for 5.5+ imby. Let's get the county trails open for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah I'm not sure about 1-2. Model qpf is paltry (even the "bullish" solution are less than .05) and thermal profiles aren't favorable for very high ratios. I think a coating is our ceiling for this one. I think at best we get something like what we've gotten this afternoon, flakes that amount to nothing. Temps in the upper 20's, during the daytime, weak rates, blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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