Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Beautiful somewhat fluffy flakes right now. Funny thing is, if I look at my p&c forecast...it's for mostly cloudy, but clicking in a circle around my part of town has 30% chances. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z RGEM 48 hour total QPF. Shows the speck of LES "enhancement" for Chicago folks. 2:3 12z RGEM 48 hr total QPF.gif Both the 0z GEM and UKMET had the northeast IA-DBQ bullseye too. GFS drops .23" at DPA, .28" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 6z GFS gives us 0.16" liquid, which would be 3" or more of snow with the high ratios. Looks like it'll be starting during the Superbowl. A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW ISEXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING POSTED FOR THEPORTION OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROMREEDSBURG TO PORTAGE...JEFFERSON...WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE. THISAREA INCLUDES THE RACINE...KENOSHA AND JANESVILLE AREAS. Also, we picked up 0.8" of snow from last night's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z RGEM 48 hour total QPF. Shows the speck of LES "enhancement" for Chicago folks. 2:3 12z RGEM 48 hr total QPF.gif Even advisory level snows over this way. I'll believe the RGEM when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 GFS finds a way to salvage the final clipper for Toronto. I'm not sure why the NAM is adamant about deamplifying the attendant s/w so much. BTW...only hope to salvage my 3.5" call for ORD is a bit of a dryslot showing up on the NAM. But even still there'd probably be 1-2" down before it moved in (if at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_030.gif Gonna be interesting to watch. Can see someone overperforming with this event. Someone's gonna have a band of heavy snow stall over their area for quite awhile. I really like the north side of Chicago the best. Geos! might be ground zero. Definitely can see a 6-7" report coming out of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Gonna be interesting to watch. Can see someone overperforming with this event. Someone's gonna have a band of heavy snow stall over their area for quite awhile. I really like the north side of Chicago the best. Geos! might be ground zero. Definitely can see a 6-7" report coming out of that area. Yeah have been saying that for the past few days. the banding potential is better with this one plus a bit more QPF in the heaviest axis. I like where I like right now but ORD/Alek/Geos "slant stick" city all look good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z NMM radar reflectivity from 18 to 27 hours. 24 hour total through 18z Monday. I'll wave as it goes north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah have been saying that for the past few days. the banding potential is better with this one plus a bit more QPF in the heaviest axis. I like where I like right now but ORD/Alek/Geos "slant stick" city all look good right now. Just getting into the HRRR range now. Starting to hit southern WI pretty good just as the super bowl ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I certainly have some concern that this may go a bit north of me. Will wait until now cast time to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just getting into the HRRR range now. Starting to hit southern WI pretty good just as the super bowl ends. 15z RAP is a bit further south at the end of the run. Hit's northeast IA pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 15z RAP is a bit further south at the end of the run. Hit's northeast IA pretty good too. RAP_255_2013020315_F18_CREF_SURFACE.png Noticed that. Makes you wonder a bit. Many of the models have shown the precip shield "curl" up a bit as it moves through northern IL. These little vigorous waves with high-ratio snows/fat dendrites that have a nice little pivot to them as they move through often overperform at the pivot point. That's what we benefited from with the super clipper of Dec '10. Not expecting anything like that with this but still should be a very interesting event for a localized area. 4km has a solid 4"+ band from ORD points north. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/sbsn.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Final IMBY call of 4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Final IMBY call of 4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Final IMBY call of 4.3" Sounds pretty good. Good luck! Take some pics tonight if you can. I'll go with 4.5" for Alek, 4.4" for ORD, 6.5" for Geos (7-8" slant-sticking), and 4.8" for Madison. DLL also looks good for a nice 3-4" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Sounds pretty good. Good luck! Take some pics tonight if you can. I'll go with 4.5" for Alek, 4.4" for ORD, 6.5" for Geos (7-8" slant-sticking), and 4.8" for Madison. DLL also looks good for a nice 3-4" snow. I think I'm good for atleast 2.5" here if not more, just depends where the best band and pivot point set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z ARW and NMM both like ORD. Totals through 19z Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Final IMBY call of 4.3" double the other nights total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think I'm good for atleast 2.5" here if not more, just depends where the best band and pivot point set up. Yeah I thought about mentioning your area but chickened out lol. Definitely a tough call. Sometimes sharp intense bands setup right on the southern edge of the precip/north edge of the dry slot. I would think you should be good for a few inches, but potential for a few inches more certainly there. Nowcasting trends later this eve will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 double the other nights total? We were probably around 2.5" when all was said and done with the last clipper. The model guidance taking the band right through the far north side of the city and northern burbs is really good, combine that with increased moisture and minor lake influence and I think it's a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We were probably around 2.5" when all was said and done with the last clipper. The model guidance taking the band right through the far north side of the city and northern burbs is really good, combine that with increased moisture and minor lake influence and I think it's a good call. Yeah I'd agree. Someone up there will get 5" I'll say 3" here right now but more bust potential than up by you. 12z GEM continues to be a bit more generous here and easily in the good band, main axis probably aimed right at ORD or just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 ORD: 4.5" Alek: 4.7" Batavia: 3.6" Cortland: 2.6" Mt Geos: 5.3" Streamwood: 1.1" (sketchy measuring) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Close in look of the HRW simulated radar shows some nice banding over northeast IL, with that sharp cutoff to the south. EDIT: This is at 1am and 4am local time btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 ORD: 4.5" Alek: 4.7" Batavia: 3.6" Cortland: 2.6" Mt Geos: 5.3" Streamwood: 1.1" (sketchy measuring) pretty close thinking. Joe will have the underground heaters on full blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z GGEM and UK like Tuesday for some action as well (south of what the GFS is showing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It's not bad. Kind of a tough call right now, with such a relatively narrow band of snow. A true nowcast situation. Nice light snow continues here. Car re-dusted. Put it on the board. We move closer to double digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z GFS has .20" qpf and the NAM has .25" qpf and assuming 20:1 ratios I'd say 3.9" of snow here in Racine. Kind of worried the heaviest band will miss just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Put it on the board. We move closer to double digits... Getting close indeed. 0.1" by 0.1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Gonna be interesting to watch. Can see someone overperforming with this event. Someone's gonna have a band of heavy snow stall over their area for quite awhile. I really like the north side of Chicago the best. Geos! might be ground zero. Definitely can see a 6-7" report coming out of that area. Yeah, I'm really liking my location with this system. Had 0.1" from the snow shower activity this morning. Sounds pretty good. Good luck! Take some pics tonight if you can. I'll go with 4.5" for Alek, 4.4" for ORD, 6.5" for Geos (7-8" slant-sticking), and 4.8" for Madison. DLL also looks good for a nice 3-4" snow. Don't worry my slant sticking days are over! I'll call 5.5" for mby. Stay a little conservative. SREF showing 20-30:1 ratios for this event. I think Alek is going to do well on this event. Milwaukee must be siding with the NAM on this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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