snowlover2 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 6:42 AM, Thunder Road said: The IWX WRF would make Chicagoans (and me) happy. How does the Euro look with this clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Looks like the EURO is closer to the NAM wrt to the heaviest axis of snow. Pretty much from just south of DLL to Alek to Elkhart, IN with the core of the band. Then once it approaches central OH it increases area coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro doesn't look that great, but it has a disturbance at Oz Fri that picks up some gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 7:37 AM, Minnesota Meso said: Euro doesn't look that great, but it has a disturbance at Oz Fri that picks up some gulf moisture. Looks I am borderline for that system. Be interesting to see if that system trends stronger, colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 WWA in Madison for 8PM tonight to 9AM Monday. Forecast is 2-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z NAM looks good for southern WI/northern IL. Geos bulls eye? A nice steady light snow here this morning, with decent flakes. Mood+ flakes I guess you could call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 persistent mod snow over western burbs...high end light imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah, 12z NAM still showing .25"+ qpf in a narrow band, looking strong. If that verifies with 25:1 ratios, some areas could actually see 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 meh...5" or so will be the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah, 3-5" looks solid for the best snows. Isolated lollis to 6" not entirely impossible I suppose, but I wouldn't bet on it. FWIW, 9z SREF has low 4"+ snow probabilities, mainly focused on daddylonglegs hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 lots of big fattys falling with little wind...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 9z SREF snow probabilities at 27 and 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 2:50 PM, Alek said: lots of big fattys falling with little wind...nice A little more bite with this weak shortwave than expected, it seems. Still snowing here under 30% chance POPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 2:59 PM, Chicago WX said: A little more bite with this weak shortwave than expected, it seems. Still snowing here under 30% chance POPs. yep, there was some odd banding on LOTs radar near downtown, check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 2:52 PM, Chicago WX said: 9z SREF snow probabilities at 27 and 30 hours. 2:3 9z SREF 27 hours.gif 2:3 9z SREF 30 hours.gif Madison will be buried by the end of the week, should be over a foot of snowcover, especially if the precip on Wednesday night/Thursday that is progged falls as mostly snow. Then a warmup, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:00 PM, Alek said: yep, there was some odd banding on LOTs radar near downtown, check it out Mini short lived squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:01 PM, wisconsinwx said: Madison will be buried by the end of the week, should be over a foot of snowcover, especially if the precip on Wednesday night/Thursday that is progged falls as mostly snow. Then a warmup, though. 5.1" to get to 40" on the season for MSN. Can they make it with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z RGEM looks like a solid ORD hit. Just a tick south of what the NAM is advertising. It also develops a LES band for Chicago as the clipper passes, but first things first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:18 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z RGEM looks like a solid ORD hit. Just a tick south of what the NAM is advertising. It also develops a LES band for Chicago as the clipper passes, but first things first. LOT hints at a brief LES window as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 FWIW i think LOT's current graphic cast looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:24 PM, Alek said: FWIW i think LOT's current graphic cast looks pretty good It's not bad. Kind of a tough call right now, with such a relatively narrow band of snow. A true nowcast situation. Nice light snow continues here. Car re-dusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:00 PM, Alek said: yep, there was some odd banding on LOTs radar near downtown, check it out Looks like a weak gravity wave, you can see it on the visible satellite too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z GFS liking ORD. Blob of dark green basically overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Anyone think that the futility record ends with this event, I believe 4" does it. I'd put the chances at 35% that it ends with tonight's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:44 PM, Stebo said: Anyone think that the futility record ends with this event, I believe 4" does it. I'd put the chances at 35% that it ends with tonight's event. 4" ties, 4.1" ends it...barring a tenth or two being recorded from this morning's snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:46 PM, Chicago WX said: 4" ties, 4.1" ends it...barring a tenth or two being recorded from this morning's snowfall. Based upon the obs I would bet they had a tenth or two in the last 2 hr KORD 031543Z 27008KT 2SM -SN BR BKN030 OVC037 M09/M11 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $ KORD 031536Z 27005KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN028 OVC037 M09/M11 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $ KORD 031451Z 27006KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN022 OVC037 M10/M12 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP158 P0000 60000 T11001117 53004 $ KORD 031444Z 26006KT 2SM -SN BR BKN022 OVC037 M10/M12 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $ KORD 031434Z 25006KT 2SM -SN BR FEW028 OVC037 M10/M12 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000 $ KORD 031425Z 25006KT 3SM -SN BR OVC037 M10/M12 A2995 RMK AO2 P0000 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z RGEM 48 hour total QPF. Shows the speck of LES "enhancement" for Chicago folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Update from LOT regarding this morning's snowfall. Always nice to see an explanation. THE WAVE TRAIN OF CLIPPERS ON LITERALLY A 24 PERIODICITY THISWEEKEND CONTINUES WITH THE MIDDLE ONE DEPARTING THE EASTERN AREATHIS MID-MORNING. SNOW HOWEVER CONTINUES FOR MULTIPLE REASONS ITAPPEARS. FOR ONE...AN IMPRESSIVE 110 KT 500MB NORTHWESTERLY JET ASSEEN ON THE KINL RAOB AND THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUNCHING INTO THEAREA AT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR ASCENT. THIS IS SHIFTING EASTQUICKLY THOUGH. SO THE PRIMARY DRIVING FACTORS EVEN MORE SO ARECOLD AIR ADVECTION ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES AND A DEEP DENDRITICGROWTH LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD. THIS PATTERN FOR MORE SNOWSHOWERS HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITHVISIBILITY AT TIMES DROPPING TO AROUND 1SM AND AT TIMES BOUNCING UPTO 6SM. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY /WITH CURRENT 88D CALIBRATION ISSUESASIDE/ HAVE CORRELATED WITH MUCH LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZE HERE AT THEOFFICE...AND AMDAR DATA DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE SATURATED 7000 FTZONE IN THAT THERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD. THIS TYPE OFSNOW WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR QUICKACCUMULATIONS WITH LIKELY A HANDFUL OF PLACES TO REPORT IN EXCESSOF AN INCH AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO TWO INCHES IN SOME SOUTH METROLOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 4:02 PM, Chicago WX said: Update from LOT regarding this morning's snowfall. Always nice to see an explanation. THE WAVE TRAIN OF CLIPPERS ON LITERALLY A 24 PERIODICITY THISWEEKEND CONTINUES WITH THE MIDDLE ONE DEPARTING THE EASTERN AREATHIS MID-MORNING. SNOW HOWEVER CONTINUES FOR MULTIPLE REASONS ITAPPEARS. FOR ONE...AN IMPRESSIVE 110 KT 500MB NORTHWESTERLY JET ASSEEN ON THE KINL RAOB AND THE RAP ANALYSIS IS PUNCHING INTO THEAREA AT A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR ASCENT. THIS IS SHIFTING EASTQUICKLY THOUGH. SO THE PRIMARY DRIVING FACTORS EVEN MORE SO ARECOLD AIR ADVECTION ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES AND A DEEP DENDRITICGROWTH LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD. THIS PATTERN FOR MORE SNOWSHOWERS HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WITHVISIBILITY AT TIMES DROPPING TO AROUND 1SM AND AT TIMES BOUNCING UPTO 6SM. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY /WITH CURRENT 88D CALIBRATION ISSUESASIDE/ HAVE CORRELATED WITH MUCH LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZE HERE AT THEOFFICE...AND AMDAR DATA DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE SATURATED 7000 FTZONE IN THAT THERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD. THIS TYPE OFSNOW WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS HAS ALLOWED FOR QUICKACCUMULATIONS WITH LIKELY A HANDFUL OF PLACES TO REPORT IN EXCESSOF AN INCH AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO TWO INCHES IN SOME SOUTH METROLOCATIONS. Hell if they get an inch today before the clipper tonight then my 35% chance of futility ending with tonight's clipper is a lowball chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 4:06 PM, Stebo said: Hell if they get an inch today before the clipper tonight then my 35% chance of futility ending with tonight's clipper is a lowball chance. It's moving out, and ORD was on the fringes...of the good stuff. A couple of tenths at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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