Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 pa ski areas saved? maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Boston gets a good thump. Not sure what direction to go with this - everything else argues against it, but this is what... 4 consecutive runs now? Hard to just dismiss. It's not like we are dismissing the JMA here, it's the ECM. Regardless of "it has been horrible this Winter" we also haven't been dealing with southern stream systems as much, and the GFS usually handles northern stream systems better (and that's all we've had of late) ... does the Ukie still support it - can't access graphics at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 pa ski areas saved? maybe Heading up to camelback for the weekend (rented a cabin with some friends) . They better be saved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro is a secs'y snowstorm northern zones/allentown north beware though it is Dr No showing snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro not backing down. Will be interesting to see details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 That euro is stubborn...! Colder solution. HM ftw? Snow/mix From Allentown NW euro is a secs'y snowstorm northern zones/allentown north beware though it is Dr No showing snow... its rain for everyone outside the pocs maybe and they still might be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 storm bombs out for NE warm, rain 11th , 12th up to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 its rain for everyone outside the pocs maybe and they still might be rain looks close but nice trend. elk snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The phase takes place a little later this run. From about Syracuse to Pitt to NEPA, there's a "gap" in the Qpf field. I believe the northern stream hangs on a little longer, and there's a battle of who gets some moisture. Don't get me wrong, there's still some appreciable Qpf between Philly and state college, just not as much as when you get to Snj -Boston. Wish I was allowed to post the Qpf map to show what I mean. This is also why it's colder this run for our NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 looks close but nice trend. elk snow? it might be close for elk, they might get a wet snow bomb. You would need elevation greater than a 1000ft and latitude. A northern low cutting across new york state is death for anyone wanting snow. Those need to hphase a lot faster, meaning you need that northern low further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The phase takes place a little later this run. From about Syracuse to Pitt to NEPA, there's a "gap" in the Qpf field. I believe the northern stream hangs on a little longer, and there's a battle of who gets some moisture. Don't get me wrong, there's still some appreciable Qpf between Philly and state college, just not as much as when you get to Snj -Boston. Wish I was allowed to post the Qpf map to show what I mean. This is also why it's colder this run for our NW zones. its still all rain...you go from 43 and rain to 40-38 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 its rain for everyone outside the pocs maybe and they still might be rain Not so sure about that. @ 96, the 850 line is NW York-chesco-Phl -TTN - long beach island. The 0 surface like is outta state, and the 540 thickness line is BGM- white plains ny. So there's a def warm punch in there: just how much would be interesting to see. (Anyone got 10,000$ to get euro soundings?!) @102, the 850 line goes Lancaster- Allentown to white plains ny. The 540 line runs just north of the poconos, maybe a sleet problem? Precip rates don't get above .1-.25" for bucks-chesco points NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 its still all rain...you go from 43 and rain to 40-38 and rain I'm Not debating rain for us, I'm just saying its colder than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 This will be thread the needle either way without the best teleconnections to support. Too many things need to go just right here, and you need an earlier phase or there will be virtually no dynamics present to make it colder on the NW side. You can see that once it phases and bombs... cold air is pulled to near the coast in eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Not so sure about that. @ 96, the 850 line is NW York-chesco-Phl -TTN - long beach island. The 0 surface like is outta state, and the 540 thickness line is BGM- white plains ny. So there's a def warm punch in there: just how much would be interesting to see. (Anyone got 10,000$ to get euro soundings?!) @102, the 850 line goes Lancaster- Allentown to white plains ny. The 540 line runs just north of the poconos, maybe a sleet problem? Precip rates don't get above .1-.25" for bucks-chesco points NW. You can get Euro soundings and EPS ENS soundings for any city for $16.99/month but I won't bring up where.... lol. I'm sure you'll guess. But the SV 32 degree line at 96 is up near IPT. Pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Not so sure about that. @ 96, the 850 line is NW York-chesco-Phl -TTN - long beach island. The 0 surface like is outta state, and the 540 thickness line is BGM- white plains ny. So there's a def warm punch in there: just how much would be interesting to see. (Anyone got 10,000$ to get euro soundings?!) @102, the 850 line goes Lancaster- Allentown to white plains ny. The 540 line runs just north of the poconos, maybe a sleet problem? Precip rates don't get above .1-.25" for bucks-chesco points NW. you have a primary in northern new york state. Coastal hasn't fully taken over so you have southerly wind component.. hr 96 no one in the state of pa is below freezing temp wise. 40 degree line runs from dyl to poienixville to southern lanc county. hr 102 40 degree line is i78 on south, with the pocs above freezing. If you have 1500 ft in elev you may get something good. But other then that its mainly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The only real large-scale difference between today's 12z GFS and ECMWF is how they handle the southern stream wave(s)--that's it. The agreement among other features like the northern s/w positioning, PV and PAC low is pretty good at this range. Most of the modeling is lagging the southern s/w back some, which the ECMWF does too but launches a piece ahead of the digging northern wave. At this point, I would take a GFS / EC compromise because the ECMWF is still superior at handling the southern stream but the issue with how much energy comes out/left behind is very sensitive to small scale changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Meh, Euro trending less phase....could end up like the other long range models in a few more runs. Looks like weenie false hope to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm Not debating rain for us, I'm just saying its colder than 0z 850 wise yes, surface wise no, this run is warmer because its a later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 850 wise yes, surface wise no, this run is warmer because its a later phase. Its tough to say without seeing soundings, but there could be some sleet issues for the poconos.( this run).. Euro is still on its own with this type of solution. I thought for sure it would come back to a GFS'esque type solution, especially with what the 0z ECMENS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Meh, Euro trending less phase....could end up like the other long range models in a few more runs. Looks like weenie false hope to me. Not to pick on you but I've been hearing this from almost everyone and it simply isn't true. I agree that the 00z Sunday run was quite extreme with how deep the northern s/w went--clearly overdone. Once it adjusted that on the following run, the situation has been pretty similar. There are 2 small southern stream waves with most models simply dampening the Baja low s/w (the first one) and missing the second one underneath a rather "meh" northern stream s/w. The ECMWF just doesn't simply dampen the first s/w. The GFS DOES dampen the wave so it is the second one that initiates the cyclogenesis. This is why it goes harmlessly out to sea; because by that point, it is too late to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 850 wise yes, surface wise no, this run is warmer because its a later phase. What is the point of having a cold surface if your 850's are torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Its tough to say without seeing soundings, but there could be some sleet issues for the poconos.( this run).. Euro is still on its own with this type of solution. I thought for sure it would come back to a GFS'esque type solution, especially with what the 0z ECMENS showed. Ensemble means could be close to useless with a very sensitive situation like this...2 small southern stream s/w close together that may or may not interact with a northern stream wave. The smoothing could be a problem here; so, looking more deeply into the individual members may be the best route. Unfortunately, I have no access to them so I can't let you know how they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Say what you want...... I'm not sure what you mean. Like I said, I meant no harm but I don't really see a situation here where there are trends east or west. This is a matter of which s/w the model wants to use to interact with the northern s/w. What may look like a trend on the euro, is really the model adjusting from that ridiculous northern stream s/w it had. But it is still using the first southern wave to initate cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 12z ukie also has a phased solution but further south than Euro. N wave looks a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The only real large-scale difference between today's 12z GFS and ECMWF is how they handle the southern stream wave(s)--that's it. The agreement among other features like the northern s/w positioning, PV and PAC low is pretty good at this range. Most of the modeling is lagging the southern s/w back some, which the ECMWF does too but launches a piece ahead of the digging northern wave. At this point, I would take a GFS / EC compromise because the ECMWF is still superior at handling the southern stream but the issue with how much energy comes out/left behind is very sensitive to small scale changes. Play the HPC role for a second, who last night went aggressive following the ECM OP guidance and today's day crew has gone the other direction. D4 forecast from you would be... (1) follow ECM guidance adding more weight to it with it's southern stream handling superiority, (2) follow the general consensus of the other models, (3) remain on the fence for a few more cycles and keep HPC wording similar for now with "honorable mention of the D4 ECM OP threat... no pressure... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Play the HPC role for a second, who last night went aggressive following the ECM OP guidance and today's day crew has gone the other direction. D4 forecast from you would be... (1) follow ECM guidance adding more weight to it with it's southern stream handling superiority, (2) follow the general consensus of the other models, (3) remain on the fence for a few more cycles and keep HPC wording similar for now with "honorable mention of the D4 ECM OP threat... no pressure... lol lol Well, I'd have the ECMWF ensembles if I worked there which could help in deciding. I would probably keep the initial wave a player but anticipate it to be a little less robust/east than the ECMWF, leading to a coastal storm that is a bit more east (perhaps like the UKMET? although I haven't seen it beyond 72h). The "progressive nature" to the flow recently isn't exactly applying to this scenario (split flow). So I am not sure if it is wise to use any "tendency" in the forecast based on how the season has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Im not sure what the big deal about this storm is, even the EURO only shows precipitation in the parts of the area that are way above freezing, IF this storm does materialize its mostly a rain/cold rain for most except maybe poconos. Im more interested in the time frame after the day 7 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The problem is we dont have a lot of cold air to work with, and by the time the streams actually phase the storm gets kicked pretty fast because of the kicker out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Im not sure what the big deal about this storm is, even the EURO only shows precipitation in the parts of the area that are way above freezing, IF this storm does materialize its mostly a rain/cold rain for most except maybe poconos. Im more interested in the time frame after the day 7 storm. I have a vested interest in that time frame for Hartford, CT... not thinking it phases quick enough to help this area. lol Well, I'd have the ECMWF ensembles if I worked there which could help in deciding. I would probably keep the initial wave a player but anticipate it to be a little less robust/east than the ECMWF, leading to a coastal storm that is a bit more east (perhaps like the UKMET? although I haven't seen it beyond 72h). The "progressive nature" to the flow recently isn't exactly applying to this scenario (split flow). So I am not sure if it is wise to use any "tendency" in the forecast based on how the season has been. 2nd part I especially liked... thank you for your expert opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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