phlwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 ask anyone if they would rather have 60 degree weather or 3 lgt snow events within 4 days. I think they would take the latter regardless if it "may" only be 1-3 inches. I know i would. To be honest, three light snow events around rush hour are arguably the biggest pains in the a-- to deal with. Would rather it 60 degrees than have 3 commutes that take forever...and I think most people who commute more than to/from school or down the street would probably agree. If you're talking one or two large storms that *could* or perhaps even do bring snow, I'd much rather have a stormy pattern like that. At least the potential of a larger system, even if it ends up being 35 and rain, is more entertaining even if the result sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If stormier patterns are defined as a family of weak waves, vorts, and clippers, one or two of which *may* pop above 2-3" lollipops, our standards are softening badly. My standards are pretty low after the past year and a half. Not expecting a blockbuster in next week or so but there is a shot at something half decent since we do not have a crushing PV or a SE ridge so there is room for these systems to be a little stronger than currently modeled.. Storms will get more potent past 7 days as Pacific opens up. It still may not do us any good but still gives us a better shot than earlier this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 To be honest, three light snow events around rush hour are arguably the biggest pains in the a-- to deal with. Would rather it 60 degrees than have 3 commutes that take forever...and I think most people who commute more than to/from school or down the street would probably agree. If you're talking one or two large storms that *could* or perhaps even do bring snow, I'd much rather have a stormy pattern like that. At least the potential of a larger system, even if it ends up being 35 and rain, is more entertaining even if the result sucks. i agree the rush hr traffic and what not suck I have a longer drive than you into work i know what it can be like on 422. I was just merely commenting on after what happened last winter. I think people wouldn't mind a couple lgt snow events, if a big one doesn't materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 it will be interesting to see how this clipper pans out. The newest rap gets .1 into phl and .05 up to ukt. It also paints over .25 through south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 i agree the rush hr traffic and what not suck I have a longer drive than you into work i know what it can be like on 422. I was just merely commenting on after what happened last winter. I think people wouldn't mind a couple lgt snow events, if a big one doesn't materialize. If they're Sunday and overnight type stuff, I really could care less. (and yeah, my commute to my office is short and it doesn't get impacted with or without snow...but I also travel a decent amount locally and into the city for my job...that's when I prefer snow-free). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Interesting look at the RAP for tonight. Nice snow burst from the Eastern Shore of MD to Dover to Atlantic city. RAP trying to hone in on a 2-3 inch band from 6am-9am. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=precip_p01&cycle=20ℑ=ruc%2F20%2Fruc_namer_017_precip_p01.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=precip_p01&cycle=20ℑ=ruc%2F20%2Fruc_namer_018_precip_p01.gif However I think buyer beware overnight with mesoscale models. HRRR one night a few years ago had one form right over where I was, showing 6 inches in 4 hrs. Nothing fell. I'll never forget where the HRRR nailed the first part of the Jan 2011 Blizzard when all models were showing us getting maybe 1-2" from the first batch and the HRRR kept on insisting we get 4-5" but everyone ignored it. Woke up to 6" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This is all early morning stuff for tomorrow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 This is all early morning stuff for tomorrow, right? yea prob right before sunrise starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 ^^^ HEY! ( looking at it, doesn't really show anything interesting out to hr 15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ask anyone if they would rather have 60 degree weather or 3 lgt snow events within 4 days. I think they would take the latter regardless if it "may" only be 1-3 inches. I know i would. I wouldn't ask "anyone"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wouldn't ask "anyone"... ok well lets turn it around then. Say it was summer time, would you rather have 80+ temps with sun, or 50 and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Friday storm (worthy of an OBS thread on its own?) - 21Z RUC with a .47 bullseye Atlantic County/Cape May County NJ for the 3 hour period ending 15Z tomorrow, so that would put the heaviest precip from 8 - 11 am. Ain't model hugging grand when it's IYBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 21z srefs bumped further north for tomorrows clipper. Looks like it brings .1-.25 for majority of south jersey and looks like it gets .05-.1 into phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Srefs are way west for Sunday. .25 back to western jersey fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Friday storm (worthy of an OBS thread on its own?) - 21Z RUC with a .47 bullseye Atlantic County/Cape May County NJ for the 3 hour period ending 15Z tomorrow, so that would put the heaviest precip from 8 - 11 am. Ain't model hugging grand when it's IYBY? I don't see why not, make one. Definitely think there will be a ribbon of an inch or 2 south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 SREF's also have .25+ for most NJ on Sunday, its out of their range and looks like mostly slop or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS stronger and a little further south with tomorrows clipper. Now pretty much in-line with SREF which shifted north. A quick 1-3 for most of De+SJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12Z NAM more happy on Monday. 12Z GFS more happy on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 12Z NAM more happy on Monday. 12Z GFS more happy on Wednesday Both systems progged to take good tracks for our area. The wed system looks like it has the most potential with a stronger shortwave and better alignment under the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 euro says enjoy the superbowl snow free. throws us some precip tues pm-wed am. maybe 1" for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 euro says enjoy the superbowl snow free. throws us some precip tues pm-wed am. maybe 1" for someone. Huh? the euro still gives us precip on sunday. Granted its not over .1 but their is precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Huh? the euro still gives us precip on sunday. Granted its not over .1 but their is precip. yeah, my bad. Maybe snow showers? Didn't see any in the 6hr increments, forgot you have to go through the accum qpf to see the in between/lighter precip. The "HM" storm is on the euro, its just ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 yeah, my bad. Maybe snow showers? Didn't see any in the 6hr increments, forgot you have to go through the accum qpf to see the in between/lighter precip. The "HM" storm is on the euro, its just ugly.... yea that's what i figured you were going off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 yeah, my bad. Maybe snow showers? Didn't see any in the 6hr increments, forgot you have to go through the accum qpf to see the in between/lighter precip. The "HM" storm is on the euro, its just ugly.... There is a nice POS PNA during the storm. The issue is the euro just flushes out the pv. Whereas the gfs had it further south. Still wouldn't worry about it being 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There is a nice POS PNA during the storm. The issue is the euro just flushes out the pv. Whereas the gfs had it further south. Still wouldn't worry about it being 10 days away. Yes exactly; I just said the same thing over in the MA forum. The ECMWF is entirely different with the PV. If it is right, this storm has no chance of bringing snow and we would have to wait until the front goes through first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sundays "event" on the euro ens. Not bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sundays "event" on the euro ens. Not bad: I guess glen said 1-3" area wide Sunday with moderate accumulation in LV and poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 ok well lets turn it around then. Say it was summer time, would you rather have 80+ temps with sun, or 50 and drizzle. LOL...80+ and sun of course. But I still like the 50's in the winter months. Can't help it I guess. I just hate having to wear layers of clothing every day just to do my job. To me, it's very uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Why isn't the Sunday event getting much play? Looks like a widespread couple of inches to my old and tired eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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