chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro has a nice parade of systems. Each one will help hold in the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 But winter is over?!?!?!? #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol, my trolling will occur if snow threats materialize. HM which system do you like best? I think the tuesday one holds the most promise as it tracks under us. Also seems like if that sunday low bombs it forces a transient -nao that buckles the flow a little. I have to check out the ECMWF still but I think next week is more favorable for us than the first couple of clippers. The trends with Sunday are certainly eye-opening and they could bring accumulating snow into NE NJ / NYC for sure. But as far as the Delaware Valley / Mid Atlantic, we get more southern stream interaction next week (although the southern stream will help Sunday, so maybe I'm not selling it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 #climo By the end of the winter, can we count how many of these you reply to me with? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro has a nice parade of systems. Each one will help hold in the cold air. Notice how much better the pattern on the 12Z GFS is this run from Days 5-9 or so, all because Sunday's system explodes over the Maritimes and suppresses everything thereafter, that storm has been a key ever since it showed up in helping us get any chances after it, even if it did not deliver itself it had to develop offshore in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Notice how much better the pattern on the 12Z GFS is this run from Days 5-9 or so, all because Sunday's system explodes over the Maritimes and suppresses everything thereafter, that storm has been a key ever since it showed up in helping us get any chances after it, even if it did not deliver itself it had to develop offshore in some form. Exactly. The WPO retrograding and the low anomaly forming from the clippers in SE Canada / NW Atlantic are both (cough-Adam-cough) climo of the Pacific situation. Do I wish we had more -NAO? Of course, but this is certainly a more interesting pattern than ridiculous cold with no southern stream waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Notice how much better the pattern on the 12Z GFS is this run from Days 5-9 or so, all because Sunday's system explodes over the Maritimes and suppresses everything thereafter, that storm has been a key ever since it showed up in helping us get any chances after it, even if it did not deliver itself it had to develop offshore in some form. That one is the key. We've seen what happens without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 By the end of the winter, can we count how many of these you reply to me with? lol I'm still a smidge butthurt from twitter last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm still a smidge butthurt from twitter last week This had to do with you and a few energy mets right? All they care about is the deep cold? This is clearly a much stormier pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 so after all these events in about 7-10 days we can add to the #climo snow pack local totals, lock n load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam bring very light snow to snj tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice little coating-2" for Rowan Brandon tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice little coating-2" for Rowan Brandon tomorrow evening Shifted north and a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam brings norlun snow to Phl. Still to far out to trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM has a sliver of >0.25 qpf near Dover and Cape May tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 MM5 not showing any measurable precip in NJ nor the Philly metro area through sundown tomorrow. The .01" line barely makes it north of the DE/MD state line, in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice little coating-2" for Rowan Brandon tomorrow evening Still about 10-15 miles too far south with the "heavy" band for mby. Won't matter anyway since I won't be home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z gfs gets light snow up to Ttn now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Close to 2 inches in ocean county off this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Close to .1 for Phl and .1+ for Brandon-east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 When in doubt in the sr, go with the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Interesting look at the RAP for tonight. Nice snow burst from the Eastern Shore of MD to Dover to Atlantic city. RAP trying to hone in on a 2-3 inch band from 6am-9am. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=precip_p01&cycle=20ℑ=ruc%2F20%2Fruc_namer_017_precip_p01.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer¶m=precip_p01&cycle=20ℑ=ruc%2F20%2Fruc_namer_018_precip_p01.gif However I think buyer beware overnight with mesoscale models. HRRR one night a few years ago had one form right over where I was, showing 6 inches in 4 hrs. Nothing fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wow. GFS is pretty bullish on the QPF. 0.17" for MIV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 When in doubt in the sr, go with the SREFS SREF not that bullish on this. A few members near an inch from DOV to ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 SREF not that bullish on this. A few members near an inch from DOV to ACY. Precisely my point Mitchell. I think the NAM is overdoing precip and the GFS is probably just clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS is pretty "meh" for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS is pretty "meh" for Sunday. Digs the system strongly but is disorganized. Still sets the stage well for the next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If stormier patterns are defined as a family of weak waves, vorts, and clippers, one or two of which *may* pop above 2-3" lollipops, our standards are softening badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 If stormier patterns are defined as a family of weak waves, vorts, and clippers, one or two of which *may* pop above 2-3" lollipops, our standards are softening badly. ask anyone if they would rather have 60 degree weather or 3 lgt snow events within 4 days. I think they would take the latter regardless if it "may" only be 1-3 inches. I know i would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 definitely think the precip will get into philly. for tomorrow morning. Though the steadiest snow will probably be south of city towards miv as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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