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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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lol, my trolling will occur if snow threats materialize. HM which system do you like best? I think the tuesday one holds the most promise as it tracks under us. Also seems like if that sunday low bombs it forces a transient -nao that buckles the flow a little.

 

I have to check out the ECMWF still but I think next week is more favorable for us than the first couple of clippers. The trends with Sunday are certainly eye-opening and they could bring accumulating snow into NE NJ / NYC for sure. But as far as the Delaware Valley / Mid Atlantic, we get more southern stream interaction next week (although the southern stream will help Sunday, so maybe I'm not selling it).

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Euro has a nice parade of systems. Each one will help hold in the cold air. 

 

Notice how much better the pattern on the 12Z GFS is this run from Days 5-9 or so, all because Sunday's system explodes over the Maritimes and suppresses everything thereafter, that storm has been a key ever since it showed up in helping us get any chances after it, even if it did not deliver itself it had to develop offshore in some form.

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Notice how much better the pattern on the 12Z GFS is this run from Days 5-9 or so, all because Sunday's system explodes over the Maritimes and suppresses everything thereafter, that storm has been a key ever since it showed up in helping us get any chances after it, even if it did not deliver itself it had to develop offshore in some form.

Exactly. The WPO retrograding and the low anomaly forming from the clippers in SE Canada / NW Atlantic are both (cough-Adam-cough) climo of the Pacific situation. Do I wish we had more -NAO? Of course, but this is certainly a more interesting pattern than ridiculous cold with no southern stream waves.

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Notice how much better the pattern on the 12Z GFS is this run from Days 5-9 or so, all because Sunday's system explodes over the Maritimes and suppresses everything thereafter, that storm has been a key ever since it showed up in helping us get any chances after it, even if it did not deliver itself it had to develop offshore in some form.

 That one is the key. We've seen what happens without it.

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I'm still a smidge butthurt from twitter last week

 

This had to do with you and a few energy mets right? All they care about is the deep cold? This is clearly a much stormier pattern.

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Interesting look at the RAP for tonight. Nice snow burst from the Eastern Shore of MD to Dover to Atlantic city. RAP trying to hone in on a 2-3 inch band from 6am-9am.  :snowing:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer&param=precip_p01&cycle=20ℑ=ruc%2F20%2Fruc_namer_017_precip_p01.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=ruc&area=namer&param=precip_p01&cycle=20ℑ=ruc%2F20%2Fruc_namer_018_precip_p01.gif

 

However I think buyer beware overnight with mesoscale models. HRRR one night a few years ago had one form right over where I was, showing 6 inches in 4 hrs. Nothing fell.  :axe:

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If stormier patterns are defined as a family of weak waves, vorts, and clippers, one or two of which *may* pop above 2-3" lollipops, our standards are softening badly.

ask anyone if they would rather have 60 degree weather or 3 lgt snow events within 4 days. I think they would take the latter regardless if it "may" only be 1-3 inches. I know i would.

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