MGorse Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How can the media jump off the deep end like this? The morning calls headline in today's paper "Major blizzard possible next week" http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-allentown-lehigh-valley-major-blizzard-next-wee-20130228,0,5578245.story I think the word blizzard is becoming overused. A lot has to come together to get true blizzard conditions to occur, especially here with less open areas compared to the Plains. In the case of next weeks storm, if it happens, the snow consistency may end up being wet which is even harder to get blizzard conditions to occur. There is a lot still that has to come together for this storm. Now if the article said "major winter storm possible" that would be better in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a story in the Morning Call in Allentown.. Although the 0z Euro does have most all of E PA. east of I-81 in heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think the word blizzard is becoming overused. A lot has to come together to get true blizzard conditions to occur, especially here with less open areas compared to the Plains. In the case of next weeks storm, if it happens, the snow consistency may end up being wet which is even harder to get blizzard conditions to occur. There is a lot still that has to come together for this storm. Now if the article said "major winter storm possible" that would be better in my opinion. Agreed. I think they're using the term blizzard for a storm with heavy snows or something towards that effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Historic and blizzard are both way overused and almost NEVER pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'll take the 00z GGEM Ensemble mean and be elated at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Who cares if its a blizzard, blizzard has nothing to do with snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS phases storm off Va capes. Big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is the single best model run I've ever seen. Just with the slow pendulum phase,,,simply in awe...A shame its not 24 hrs out lol!Idc about low level warmth, I'm just in awe at the 500mb map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How far inland does the precip field go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 all of MT. holly CWA is under at least 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 WHat a beast of a run! the southern stream vort is just insanely ridiculous this run. just couldn't be 24hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 all of MT. holly CWA is under at least 1" QPF Suburbs would get 20-35" if this run were right. Roadtrip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS - wow, just wow. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Stalls off Delmarva.. Eventually changes to rain through I-95. Snows extend well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS is only 800 miles north from the 0z run. Looks like over 2.5" frozen qpf north and west of philly. Show this on sunday and i will have genuine interest as modelling has been brutal this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not that different from last nights Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just a measly 12-24 inches in the Lehigh Valley, changing to drizzle at the end. I'd love to see the soundings when they come out. Still way too early to get excited, but so far, congrats GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS is only 800 miles north from the 0z run. Looks like over 2.5" frozen qpf north and west of philly. Show this on sunday and i will have genuine interest as modelling has been brutal this winter only?? i would say that is a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 95 suffers from BL temps this run... SV maps have 0" of snow for 95 east.. (strictly verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 also, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think GFS sends so much LLWarmth into the coastal plain because it wraps up the low too much. It sends the initial vortex farther south than any model thus once the phase happens it has more room to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 NW of PHL is the key on this run. Verbatim @TTN: 12Z Wednesday - Rain/snow mix with wet-bulb zero of 1100 feet AGL 18Z Wednesday - Rain with wet-bulb zero of 2000 feet AGL 0Z Thursday - Rain/snow mix with wet-bulb zero of 1300 feet AGL 6Z Thursday - Rain with wet-bulb zero of 5500 feet AGL 12Z Thursday - Rain with wet-bulb zero of 5500 feet AGL So... yeah, this isn't actually a good run along I-95 itself. Certainly not in S NJ. Verbatim. But like I said, it'll change another dozen times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think GFS sends so much LLWarmth into the coastal plain because it wraps up the low too much. It sends the initial vortex farther south than any model thus once the phase happens it has more room to come west. The low track is better than the EC's... but remember, its March now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is insane... inland areas get the biggest snowfall in years. I haven't received over 15" since VDay 2007, and that's why the GFS/EURO say. What can go wrong here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Interior eastern PA, lehigh valley get crushed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Need the northern stream to interact a little more to get that colder air down to 95. Anyhow, pretty big shifts in the GFS in 24hrs... Thats all we can ask for is that there is a phased solution possible....and a nor'easter along the coast. 18z run yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a giant storm on the GGEM. Can't tell how warm it is but copious amounts of QPF with a bomb sitting off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 988 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a giant storm on the GGEM. Can't tell how warm it is but copious amounts of QPF with a bomb sitting off the Delmarva. Can't tell about the boundary layer but the GEM is quite a bit colder than the GFS based on thickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Can't tell about the boundary layer but the GEM is quite a bit colder than the GFS based on thickness solely going off 850s, it would be snow from i95 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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