hazwoper Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 based on the 12Z GFS Myrtle Beach could have more snow on the season come the middle of next week than PHL. Obviously BL would be an issue, but still, a very interesting depiction none-the-less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z GFS consistent iwith a suppressed track. Maintains Nova Scotia closed low too far SW of classic 50/50 position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Snow band travels from Western Kentucky University southeast to Atlanta and Augusta, GA on the GFS . Think of all the spring brakers in Myrtle Beach as well. . Still a few more days of nonsense to go through before the GFS likely shows a UKMET/EC solution that is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Snow band travels from Western Kentucky University southeast to Atlanta and Augusta, GA on the GFS . Think of all the spring brakers in Myrtle Beach as well. . Still a few more days of nonsense to go through before the GFS likely shows a UKMET/EC solution that is further north. Same goes for the CMC across the upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GGEM transfers the low over NYC http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I can't see the UKMET beyond 144 but it looks south like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Yup. I can't see the UKMET beyond 144 but it looks south like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 How has the canadian been doing since its upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 How has the canadian been doing since its upgrade? Not much better in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Next week is one of those situations where zoomed out, it looks great. But when you zoom into the details of the large-scale flow, you feel a bit sick. So we, essentially, have to rely on near perfect phasing to get a snowstorm; otherwise, this thing is for the fishies. I hate these situations because partial phasing is pretty difficult and near-perfect phasing is just lol... Then again, we've had Sandy and 2/8-9 which are about as good as it gets around here in terms of phasing. So it's not impossible of course. The obvious concerns with something like the op euro would be widespread power outages / damage from wet snow. It doesn't look as bad as 1958 or anything but those problems would materialize with those accumulations. The good news is that the northern stream is littered with waves, decreasing the probability that the block will absorb into the flow like 2/22. The bad news is that the northern stream is littered with waves, haha. A key component to something like the euro is the northern stream digging south, capturing the low and becoming one large nor'easter. Finally, the 50-50 low may not be the coldest by any means but it is damn near stationary from this weekend up through the storm date. The momentum of the increasing northern jet / Pacific Low could push this feature out quicker in upcoming model runs but that same logic could do that to our northern stream waves. This would force a "miss" in terms of phasing. Fantastic,very detailed post. This will keep the weenie in me in check, great read HM. VWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How can the media jump off the deep end like this? The morning calls headline in today's paper "Major blizzard possible next week" http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-allentown-lehigh-valley-major-blizzard-next-wee-20130228,0,5578245.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How can the media jump off the deep end like this? The morning calls headline in today's paper "Major blizzard possible next week" http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-allentown-lehigh-valley-major-blizzard-next-wee-20130228,0,5578245.story Everyone got excited by that one run of the EC... forgetting that it was the EC's CONSISTENCY which heralded Sandy's forecast success back in October, a consistency which is lacking with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Everyone got excited by that one run of the EC... forgetting that it was the EC's CONSISTENCY which heralded Sandy's forecast success back in October, a consistency which is lacking with this one. But that's a bit extreme to publish such an article In a big newspaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, you notice what private firm was quoted heavily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well, you notice what private firm was quoted heavily... Lol yep. The world practically counts on them for everything and they are ALWAYS completely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS much improved tonight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GFS much improved tonight?? yep, it is totally different at h5 and went towards the ec's handling of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 0Z GFS is a lot different. 12Z GFS and EC were actually fairly similar overall. We'll see whether the EC also has a radical shift towards the GFS's new depiction or is more similar to its 12Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 0Z GFS is a lot different. 12Z GFS and EC were actually fairly similar overall. We'll see whether the EC also has a radical shift towards the GFS's new depiction or is more similar to its 12Z version. Possible good sign?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Possible good sign?? Anything is a "possible" good sign. Or just a random fluctuation of the GFS. Those happen. Particularly in the 5-7 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM for $hits and giggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM for $hits and giggles just about to say that. Lolz what a run. I'm sure the weenies will be all in on that because of the gem upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GEM is a huge shift south. Essentially toward the consensus of the 12Z GFS/EC/UKMET. 0Z UKMET did shift a bit north too, but like the GFS appears to still be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 EC is not much different from the GEM. Big coastal bomb. However, verbatim its pretty warm. 0C 850 line right over TTN during the best precip with surface temps around 37F. Rain/snow mess I-95 S&E. Further inland does better because its colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hey Ray. Thanks for posting. Tried to get info in the NY thread and they just busted on me. How does it look back in West Chester, 25 -30 miles west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hey Ray. Thanks for posting. Tried to get info in the NY thread and they just busted on me. How does it look back in West Chester, 25 -30 miles west of Philly. Better. 850's -1 to -2 and surface temps 34-35. Probably a lot of heavy wet snow, though a sneaky warm layer could ruin it. But of course, the details will change a dozen times between then and now, and just like it did tonight, the whole storm track could end up shifting again. What tonight's EC did was simply say "big storm still on the table". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Better. 850's -1 to -2 and surface temps 34-35. Probably a lot of heavy wet snow, though a sneaky warm layer could ruin it. But of course, the details will change a dozen times between then and now, and just like it did tonight, the whole storm track could end up shifting again. What tonight's EC did was simply say "big storm still on the table". Well at least we got a shot and something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How can the media jump off the deep end like this? The morning calls headline in today's paper "Major blizzard possible next week" http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-allentown-lehigh-valley-major-blizzard-next-wee-20130228,0,5578245.story To be fair the actual title was "Major blizzard possible next week - or not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 EC is not much different from the GEM. Big coastal bomb. However, verbatim its pretty warm. 0C 850 line right over TTN during the best precip with surface temps around 37F. Rain/snow mess I-95 S&E. Further inland does better because its colder. ENS look beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That does look good. A little further offshore and colder than the Op. Too bad its 6 days out. ENS look beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.