ptb127 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 How much QPF total for MPO and KAVP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 How much QPF total for MPO and KAVP? 1-1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I can't tell if this is all snow or a pure paste job. From philly area 850s are below and thicknesses are 534-540. If all snow it would probably be a snow bomb of 1-2 ft for next wed into thurs. FYI -- Euro. GFS is suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 FYI -- Euro. GFS is suppression city. yea i don't think anyone is locking this in. The potential for something does exist around that time frame if the players are in the right spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 from what i read the euro ens mean spaghetti plots don't support the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 from what i read the euro ens mean spaghetti plots don't support the operational. The ENS mEAN doesn't look too bad.. Looks a little faster, not as amp'd, but then again, its 180 hours out. The euro drops a closed off northern stream into the base of the trough, hence the stall/bomb. WIth such an extreme solution, you took it with a grain of salt. However, the GFS isn't too far off. Probably where you want the GFS at this point. Euro OP on the left, GFS OP on the right. hours 168 and 192, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I was suprised to see the EC so wound up today. Notice from the 00z GFS the 6z GFS came back north. Typical model biases are coming into play. EC has the right idea with track but the low should be a good deal weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So yea Euro 18"+ for Philly? I'll take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Its sloppy paste but yeah, its an epic amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Last nights euro fun to look at. Good support for a system tracking through TV to Carolina/VA coast. Need the right strength/track for snow at low elevations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 FWIW, Dgex JUST misses destryoing our area. Central PA and MD do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 yea, just remember the euro loves to over phase things out in the long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 yea, just remember the euro loves to over phase things out in the long term I'm sure 12z will be different. but some kind of blow-up is possible given the blocky pattern and slow flow over Can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looks like about 1/3 of the GFS ensemble members delevop a decent storm along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 A totally un-meteorological comment... but this storm fits the profile of the best snow-bombs happening when I have no chance of chasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 A totally un-meteorological comment... but this storm fits the profile of the best snow-bombs happening when I have no chance of chasing it. Here's another un-meteorological comment... the weekend rule is not in effect here. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 A totally un-meteorological comment... but this storm fits the profile of the best snow-bombs happening when I have no chance of chasing it. So we should pretty much bank on it happening then, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Here's another un-meteorological comment... the weekend rule is not in effect here. ha ha ha That's OK, because all the big ones that I couldn't possibly chase were non-weekenders (2/10/10, 1/26/11) So we should pretty much bank on it happening then, right? Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 A totally un-meteorological comment... but this storm fits the profile of the best snow-bombs happening when I have no chance of chasing it. And I just summerized my snow-blower. Thanks a lot Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12z GEFS are nw of the op: NOt saying much this far out, but does have room to shift NW. Just throwing it out there. Gotta see how the pac low affects the ridge, and how the early week 50-50 low evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 EURo phases later, and pastes NJ( BL issues?)but it bombs the storm offshore later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 .5-1.5" of what could be a wet paste (qpf) 2" down the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Quite a bomb - a couple of hundred miles east of the 00z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Not that this is anything like that setup, but we are rapidly approaching the 20th anniversary of the Storm of the Century. I would dig (pun intended) a big ol' March snowstorm to make up for this disappointing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Next week is one of those situations where zoomed out, it looks great. But when you zoom into the details of the large-scale flow, you feel a bit sick. So we, essentially, have to rely on near perfect phasing to get a snowstorm; otherwise, this thing is for the fishies. I hate these situations because partial phasing is pretty difficult and near-perfect phasing is just lol... Then again, we've had Sandy and 2/8-9 which are about as good as it gets around here in terms of phasing. So it's not impossible of course. The obvious concerns with something like the op euro would be widespread power outages / damage from wet snow. It doesn't look as bad as 1958 or anything but those problems would materialize with those accumulations. The good news is that the northern stream is littered with waves, decreasing the probability that the block will absorb into the flow like 2/22. The bad news is that the northern stream is littered with waves, haha. A key component to something like the euro is the northern stream digging south, capturing the low and becoming one large nor'easter. Finally, the 50-50 low may not be the coldest by any means but it is damn near stationary from this weekend up through the storm date. The momentum of the increasing northern jet / Pacific Low could push this feature out quicker in upcoming model runs but that same logic could do that to our northern stream waves. This would force a "miss" in terms of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Next week is one of those situations where zoomed out, it looks great. But when you zoom into the details of the large-scale flow, you feel a bit sick. So we, essentially, have to rely on near perfect phasing to get a snowstorm; otherwise, this thing is for the fishies. I hate these situations because partial phasing is pretty difficult and near-perfect phasing is just lol... Then again, we've had Sandy and 2/8-9 which are about as good as it gets around here in terms of phasing. So it's not impossible of course. The obvious concerns with something like the op euro would be widespread power outages / damage from wet snow. It doesn't look as bad as 1958 or anything but those problems would materialize with those accumulations. The good news is that the northern stream is littered with waves, decreasing the probability that the block will absorb into the flow like 2/22. The bad news is that the northern stream is littered with waves, haha. A key component to something like the euro is the northern stream digging south, capturing the low and becoming one large nor'easter. Finally, the 50-50 low may not be the coldest by any means but it is damn near stationary from this weekend up through the storm date. The momentum of the increasing northern jet / Pacific Low could push this feature out quicker in upcoming model runs but that same logic could do that to our northern stream waves. This would force a "miss" in terms of phasing. thanks for the analysis HM. Do you think temps could be an issue? The 12z euro, even though the snowfall maps i have seen show 12 plus for philly on east look highly suspect and frankly a lot of the amounts do. .1-.25 qpf over 6 hrs in march during the day is not going to do it. This just screams bl issues along the coast and i95. IMHO you need that 0z euro run to get something good with heavy precip rates. Or you just get most of the precip to fall at night, unlike the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 thanks for the analysis HM. Do you think temps could be an issue? The 12z euro, even though the snowfall maps i have seen show 12 plus for philly on east look highly suspect and frankly a lot of the amounts do. .1-.25 qpf over 6 hrs in march during the day is not going to do it. This just screams bl issues along the coast and i95. IMHO you need that 0z euro run to get something good with heavy precip rates. Or you just get most of the precip to fall at night, unlike the 12z euro Well, I guess we'll never know unless it happens as modeled; but, I would say that temperatures wouldn't be an issue with a bomb like that (outside of maybe the beginning). It doesn't matter what time of day it is or what time of year it is when you have strong UVM / snowfall rates. The snow will stick and it will stick quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, I guess we'll never know unless it happens as modeled; but, I would say that temperatures wouldn't be an issue with a bomb like that (outside of maybe the beginning). It doesn't matter what time of day it is or what time of year it is when you have strong UVM / snowfall rates. The snow will stick and it will stick quickly. Ahh i see. I just always think of the feb 26 storm in 2010, where it snowed all day and amounted to a coating. Though, i don't think that had that hvy of rates during the day. Once the storm came west and we got into those rates and it was night time it accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well I think HM is talking about the core CCB, like what was depicted on the 0Z EC. On the 12Z where you're more towards the edge, yes there could be sticking issues. There's certainly been cases where the core was plastered snow while the edge was light non-sticking snow or rain/snow mix... hell, just back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The 18z GEFS show the potential and the large uncertainty.The GFS OP run is in the weak storm/nada camp but the big storm camp is well represented. Quite a few closed 500 mb lows in the MA underneath strong E Can ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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