AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 people said the same thing about this storm too and we were way too warm all day for this light snow to stick There are no similarities and the airmass above the surface is much colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 people said the same thing about this storm too and we were way too warm all day for this light snow to stick Thankfully, the world doesn't revolve around you. It stuck pretty well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 EC is warmer on the Friday night event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thankfully, the world doesn't revolve around you. It stuck pretty well here. The NW Philly burbs excluded, I suspect ratios overall were pretty low (sub 10:1) in the Delaware Valley and S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Decided to start a thread on Friday night as its got pretty good support right now, if P-type is still a little questionable. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39353-friday-night-surprise-215-162013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 people said the same thing about this storm too and we were way too warm all day for this light snow to stick Warlock, where abouts are you in Belle mead? I cant be more than 5-8 miles away...granted I have a bit of elevation, but I have 1.25" of snow pasted everywhere, including blacktop. It snowed hard, very hard for a time last night around here. You got only light snow that didn't stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 with the "once in a lifetime" upgrade of the canadian that just happened i was wondering what it showed for next week?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 with the "once in a lifetime" upgrade of the canadian that just happened i was wondering what it showed for next week?? basically the same as the other models just less in qpf around .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Warlock, where abouts are you in Belle mead? I cant be more than 5-8 miles away...granted I have a bit of elevation, but I have 1.25" of snow pasted everywhere, including blacktop. It snowed hard, very hard for a time last night around here. You got only light snow that didn't stick? right off of 206 basically the Montgomery/Hillsborough border, the only thing it stuck to were car roofs and grass...half inch total tops. Except for like a 5 minute burst most of the time it was just too late to do anything but melt upon contact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anything look interesting for Tuesday? Given the lack of comments, I assume not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Friday of next week looks more interesting in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Friday of next week looks more interesting in my view. yea, at least with that there looks like a solid high pressure and a nice 50-50 low with a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The declining NAO index / Heather A. signal certainly favors a high impact precip event for much of the Northeast 2/21-22. As the Pacific state alters, more areal coverage of the winter storm is likely since the storm will first occlude over the Midwest. This is very fascinating because usually we don't see that underneath a -NAO setup (which is something to note). There is probably a few things to note about next week: 1. The Pacific wave train should continue and it is possible the next wave speeds up into the West, deamplifying the Midwest trough a bit. Obviously, the modeling is all over the place with how the next set of waves interact over the West 2/22-2/25. 2. With a strong storm this weekend, the system early next week could trend weaker causing headaches with how the blocking will manifest. GFS tried to undercut but failed on 12z run. 3. Interesting how this time we are going to see what happens when the WHOLE trough comes out instead of it breaking off a wave (2/8 storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Also, let me just, for the sake of hype (lol), say this: If the NAO can become more defined than what, say, the GFS portrays, I am prepared to up the probability of a KU storm in our area. At this time, I am holding the idea from yesterday and still favoring something "sub KU levels" for our area but notable/significant (like a 6-12" type of snow). Between the next set of Pac waves and NAO, there is definitely a chance this entire things trends more south and east initially before it jumps to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Also, let me just, for the sake of hype (lol), say this: If the NAO can become more defined than what, say, the GFS portrays, I am prepared to up the probability of a KU storm in our area. At this time, I am holding the idea from yesterday and still favoring something "sub KU levels" for our area but notable/significant (like a 6-12" type of snow). Between the next set of Pac waves and NAO, there is definitely a chance this entire things trends more south and east initially before it jumps to the coast. Let the hype begin!!!! ha ha ha Thanks HM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Also, let me just, for the sake of hype (lol), say this: If the NAO can become more defined than what, say, the GFS portrays, I am prepared to up the probability of a KU storm in our area. At this time, I am holding the idea from yesterday and still favoring something "sub KU levels" for our area but notable/significant (like a 6-12" type of snow). Between the next set of Pac waves and NAO, there is definitely a chance this entire things trends more south and east initially before it jumps to the coast. HM, i posted something yesterday. But that mid week storm still seems odd to me. Granted the gfs has cooled off. But i just don't see how you plow a storm into that 50/50 low especially if the storm this weekend goes nuts, and not re develop it south. Not saying it's a snow situation for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Also, let me just, for the sake of hype (lol), say this: If the NAO can become more defined than what, say, the GFS portrays, I am prepared to up the probability of a KU storm in our area. At this time, I am holding the idea from yesterday and still favoring something "sub KU levels" for our area but notable/significant (like a 6-12" type of snow). Between the next set of Pac waves and NAO, there is definitely a chance this entire things trends more south and east initially before it jumps to the coast. Thanks for the update. The amplitude of the W Coast wave does have me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Let the hype begin!!!! ha ha ha Thanks HM! Lol yep! Let's enjoy the last few real threats of winter 2012-13. HM, i posted something yesterday. But that mid week storm still seems odd to me. Granted the gfs has cooled off. But i just don't see how you plow a storm into that 50/50 low especially if the storm this weekend goes nuts, and not re develop it south. Not saying it's a snow situation for us. The problem with the mid-week system is that it is a fuller-scale wave, hooked up with the Arctic Jet (and even polar vortex). It is going to be hard to get this thing to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lol yep! Let's enjoy the last few real threats of winter 2012-13. The problem with the mid-week system is that it is a fuller-scale wave, hooked up with the Arctic Jet (and even polar vortex). It is going to be hard to get this thing to the coast. Yea, their is no doubts in my mind that storm cuts, but i was thinking it tries to redevelop another low further south. Not saying its a snow storm for us but a colder storm. This is what i was thinking, ggem shows it pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea, their is no doubts in my mind that storm cuts, but i was thinking it tries to redevelop another low further south. Not saying its a snow storm for us but a colder storm. This is what i was thinking, ggem shows it pretty well. Oh yes that is doable if this weekend's event can wrap up significantly and be slow to pull away. Both the GFS and GGEM have that wave on the southern end of the trough amplifying early next week. In the GGEM's case, the slower 50-50 allows the southern wave to amplify more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The declining NAO index / Heather A. signal certainly favors a high impact precip event for much of the Northeast 2/21-22. As the Pacific state alters, more areal coverage of the winter storm is likely since the storm will first occlude over the Midwest. This is very fascinating because usually we don't see that underneath a -NAO setup (which is something to note). There is probably a few things to note about next week: 1. The Pacific wave train should continue and it is possible the next wave speeds up into the West, deamplifying the Midwest trough a bit. Obviously, the modeling is all over the place with how the next set of waves interact over the West 2/22-2/25. 2. With a strong storm this weekend, the system early next week could trend weaker causing headaches with how the blocking will manifest. GFS tried to undercut but failed on 12z run. 3. Interesting how this time we are going to see what happens when the WHOLE trough comes out instead of it breaking off a wave (2/8 storm). I was thinking yesterday, where the hell is Tip with his posts on how a "true heather A. is when the -nao declines and not when it's rising positive".. gonna be a clsoe call for the mid-atl on this one...what else is new I’m expecting adam to swoop in with a #climo on this comment any minute now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's the 0z EURO ensembles: Pretty hefty blocking up in the Atlantic maritimes: Pefect placement of a block and subsequent 50-50 block: 240: Shows a redevelopment just east of 40. That would be a dry slot verbatim, but its also a little more bullish with the transfer south in lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Canadian is well south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ok, i've been having a great time following all of you in these threads for a while now, but what exactly is a "heather a." signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ok, i've been having a great time following all of you in these threads for a while now, but what exactly is a "heather a." signal? I believe it is a large storm that marks a pattern change. The A is for Archambault who did the research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ok, i've been having a great time following all of you in these threads for a while now, but what exactly is a "heather a." signal? Thanks for asking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ok, i've been having a great time following all of you in these threads for a while now, but what exactly is a "heather a." signal? Yup, Heather archembault correlated major east coast storms with signs changes in the nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I believe it is a large storm that marks a pattern change. The A is for Archambault who did the research. Thanks man. I took the only three meteorology courses offered at my school but nearly every darn time I visit here there are a few new acronyms/terms that I've never heard of. Off to do some googling! edit: Gonna take a long time to read over all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks man. I took the only three meteorology courses offered at my school but nearly every darn time I visit here there are a few new acronyms/terms that I've never heard of. Off to do some googling! edit: Gonna take a long time to read over all of this. NP. There are great mets in this subforum that you can learn a whole lot from! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I heard 21-22 looks good as of now on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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