NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z GEFS came well east and OTS That 0z gefs was a pretty fluke Run. 6z gefs were also well fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We have next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That 0z gefs was a pretty fluke Run. 6z gefs were also well fishy. Not a suprise considering how bad the OP looks right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z gfs squashes everything. Kind of a waste of a good trough. Def looks like the coldest shot of air, until next winter. Energy mets going to look great Sunday night, when all of fl has freeze warnings lol Well if it was longer lasting, didnt fall on a weekend, and if they cared about oranges in FL, then it would have certainly mattered more. I know the european guidance failed at this cold shot coming up and all, but this is really not a big deal for energy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z euro is still well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Next week looks pretty good for the HM threat on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any hope for further interior sections, or is everything going to be suppressed? We've had a few very minor events this year but I'd like one big one before spring. Apologies to the eastern sections but there aren't any mets that post in the Pittsburgh area thread. Since the STJ got going I thought we might all get involved ala 2010, '96, PDII, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Full focus on next week at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 System between the 21-23 is the one that's had my attention for a while and I am LOVING the setup (quasi 50/50, ridging near Greenland, ridge off West coast, and big HP at the surface sitting over the Lakes with a mean looking s/w coming across the country). This is likely our last hurrah so let's enjoy tracking this baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 System between the 21-23 is the one that's had my attention for a while and I am LOVING the setup (quasi 50/50, ridging near Greenland, ridge off West coast, and big HP at the surface sitting over the Lakes with a mean looking s/w coming across the country). This is likely our last hurrah so let's enjoy tracking this baby! Agree. The HM last hurrah before morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Agree. The HM last hurrah before morch And as soon as I type this the GFS comes in with a completely different setup. Model mayhem for this storm it would appear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 #Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The best sign for the 21-23rd storm is both ens means for euro & gfs show a strong HP parked over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 no weekend dump on 0z gfs, edit, whoops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 no weekend dump on 12z gfs that was 12 hours ago :-) ( i know you meant 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's one thing i noticed on the 0z GFS compared to the 18 and 12z runs.. ( prob 6z too, but havent had time to check). Check out this "player" shortwave dropping into the backside of the trough. It's obviously not fast enough to catch the energy in the base of the trough on the 0z GFS. However, if you put that in the 18z trough , same time frame and shortwave orientation, things would probably get interesting. 0z GFS left, 18z GFS right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 BUt maybe i'm just grasping @ straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Both the Euro and GFS ensembles remain well west of their parent operational models for the weekend system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 adam, how far west? big shift pending soon on op's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Both the Euro and GFS ensembles remain well west of their parent operational models for the weekend system... Adam when you an HM were talking yesterday about the next storm probably won't cut were you talking about the tues event or later in the week one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Can we start looking at the 22nd in this thread? Euro giving some love to that time frame, looks to be getting out of the progressive pattern with some blocking developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 adam, how far west? big shift pending soon on op's? 100 miles are so. I wouldn't suggest that we're absolutely going to see a shift to the west... the ensemble means have been farther west with this system all along. Again, I would just reiterate that the chances of this coming back to affect the coast are higher than you would otherwise think from the op models only Adam when you an HM were talking yesterday about the next storm probably won't cut were you talking about the tues event or later in the week one? I was talking about the Tuesday-Wednesday event, but the same logic holds for the late week event on the models. The deeper any system gets as it goes out to sea, will make it more likely that the following system can ride up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 100 miles are so. I wouldn't suggest that we're absolutely going to see a shift to the west... the ensemble means have been farther west with this system all along. Again, I would just reiterate that the chances of this coming back to affect the coast are higher than you would otherwise think from the op models only I was talking about the Tuesday-Wednesday event, but the same logic holds for the late week event on the models. The deeper any system gets as it goes out to sea, will make it more likely that the following system can ride up the coast. Pushes the boundary to the coast or offshore? Or creates a 50/50 low and kind of blocks it from cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pushes the boundary to the coast or offshore? Or creates a 50/50 low and kind of blocks it from cutting. The latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The euro op, its ensembles, and the GFS and its ensembles are show a pretty decent ATL blocking scheme showing up. However, the PNA looks to dip a bit negative, and well as the EPO /AO rise nuetral-postive. Just something to keep an eye on. The Oz ECM did develop a surface reflection this weekend similar to the 0z canadian ( rip old GGEM), just not as wet as the GGEM. something to watch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Considering the lead time the Euro Ens are very bullish on the Day 9 system. Could be the last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I find it interesting that back in late Jan, this was the discussion between Wes and me: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-27#entry2051101 Basically, he wasn't really feeling the DC area with the first threat but we agreed that things would improve for the Mid Atlantic with time. Interesting how we both were on the fence about something being major in the Mid-Atlantic and it turned out that the storm was generally major north of NYC on 2/8-9. The analogs once again strongly point to 2/20-2/22 and have for over a month now after the 2/8-10 threat. The in between dates I was always unsure of, going back and forth between snowy and meh. It looks like things will turn out snowier with tonight's light to moderate event and possibly this weekend (I agree with Adam that this isn't a "done deal" with the GFS/EURO ensembles, GGEM and UKMET offering a accumulating snow threat). As discussed for the last few weeks, the 2/20-22 threat was contingent upon the general decline in the NAO due to the final stratospheric response and a leftover southern stream. If the NAO seemed real, this could borderline a KU for our area. Both the NAO and southern stream are being modeled at this time on most NWP. The only issue is the tropical forcing which may or may not trend towards a more unfavorable regime by this point, possibly limiting amplification and cold air availability. I'm currently leaning towards a significant storm on this date just under KU status for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 I find it interesting that back in late Jan, this was the discussion between Wes and me: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-27#entry2051101 Basically, he wasn't really feeling the DC area with the first threat but we agreed that things would improve for the Mid Atlantic with time. Interesting how we both were on the fence about something being major in the Mid-Atlantic and it turned out that the storm was generally major north of NYC on 2/8-9. The analogs once again strongly point to 2/20-2/22 and have for over a month now after the 2/8-10 threat. The in between dates I was always unsure of, going back and forth between snowy and meh. It looks like things will turn out snowier with tonight's light to moderate event and possibly this weekend (I agree with Adam that this isn't a "done deal" with the GFS/EURO ensembles, GGEM and UKMET offering a accumulating snow threat). As discussed for the last few weeks, the 2/20-22 threat was contingent upon the general decline in the NAO due to the final stratospheric response and a leftover southern stream. If the NAO seemed real, this could borderline a KU for our area. Both the NAO and southern stream are being modeled at this time on most NWP. The only issue is the tropical forcing which may or may not trend towards a more unfavorable regime by this point, possibly limiting amplification and cold air availability. I'm currently leaning towards a significant storm on this date just under KU status for our region. I remember you posting that comment. Both you and Wes were rock solid on that call. For the weekend storm. It seems like the models are keying on a different s/w than they were 48 hrs ago. If i recall the gfs was keying on the disturbance dropping down on the backside of the trof and ampilfying and forming a low on the carolinas and coming north. These later runs seems to be keying on a s/w associated with the polar jet dipping down just below our latitude that tries to fire somewhat of a miller b setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 100 miles are so. I wouldn't suggest that we're absolutely going to see a shift to the west... the ensemble means have been farther west with this system all along. Again, I would just reiterate that the chances of this coming back to affect the coast are higher than you would otherwise think from the op models only I was talking about the Tuesday-Wednesday event, but the same logic holds for the late week event on the models. The deeper any system gets as it goes out to sea, will make it more likely that the following system can ride up the coast. This has been a great period of time to see the lag effects from the Tropical Forcing end of things and stratospheric end of things on the NAO (which is why predicting the NAO is tough since it relies on lag effects of multiple variables). Both factors have promoted cyclonic wave breaking off the North American Coast now for the last week or so and that should continue through next week. Overtime, these CWB anomalies push the jet toward the equator and enhance easterly anomalies across the North Atlantic (all of which is tied into the AAM propagation too). This has been correlated to lead to a -NAO period during the winter season and it is interesting to see this show up on the data. Why trust it now? 1. The stratospheric setup in the lowest layers continues to remain favorable, not a deterrent. 2. The AAM state is also favorable 3. A 2 week period of CWB off the N.A. coast 4. Favorable MJO propagation but will it speed off into unfavorable territory? 5. Already a positive anomaly up there, just displaced too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I remember you posting that comment. Both you and Wes were rock solid on that call. For the weekend storm. It seems like the models are keying on a different s/w than they were 48 hrs ago. If i recall the gfs was keying on the disturbance dropping down on the backside of the trof and ampilfying and forming a low on the carolinas and coming north. These later runs seems to be keying on a s/w associated with the polar jet dipping down just below our latitude that tries to fire somewhat of a miller b setup. As for this weekend, yes the GFS and ECMWF are focuing on a lead northern stream s/w to initiate cyclogenesis on the cold front that pushes out into the Atlantic. Regardless of the actual low track, snow may be able to break out with the trough itself along with the potential for snow shower/squalls with the Arctic Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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