Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Regarding PD3, any news on the Euro, Ukie, or GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Regarding PD3, any news on the Euro, Ukie, or GGEM? Way off shore, close to good, inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6z gfs looks like euro... I dunno, losing confidence on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6z gfs looks like euro... I dunno, losing confidence on this one. Still time, remember the EC only caught on to the last one when it was, what, 4 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still time, remember the EC only caught on to the last one when it was, what, 4 days away? I agree. And I thought the euro was trying something last night when te back side of the trough developed a kink. But then, the front side of the trough really screwed things up. I saw less and less northern stream energy dropping into the trough as model suites progressed, and more emphasis in that front side/lead short wave "clipper" develop, and a wee bit stronger kicker wave. Correct me if in wrong, but with the full lat troughs, we'd like to see something come out of the gulf in those type of set ups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The H5 pattern is silly for this weekend. Chances of a major snowstorm are far higher than current guidance would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The H5 pattern is silly for this weekend. Chances of a major snowstorm are far higher than current guidance would indicate. Does the Euro give you any pause at all, or like you and HM said the models will be all over the place? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does the Euro give you any pause at all, or like you and HM said the models will be all over the place? Thanks Yeah, I mean of course it does. But there are some Euro ENS members that are big hits. As I tweeted this morning, if I had to make a deterministic forecast, I'd still side on "no snow," but I think there is a much bigger chance that you would otherwise think from just looking at the op models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6z gefs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does the Euro give you any pause at all, or like you and HM said the models will be all over the place? Thanks The model mayhem period is just about over. However, there still is a giant, El Niño-like, east Pacific subtropical anticyclone. This coupled with the IO forcing has set up a sort of 93'-like forcing pattern, despite what the SST say. The only trouble is that we are in mid-Feb, not mid-Mar when something like this can lead to a powerful phaser that affects the eastern CONUS. With the transient nature to the PNA ridge, wintertime wavelengths can push our beautiful trough right out to sea before it amplifies; while in mid-March, the wavelengths would be short enough to pull it off. Either way, this sets up next week with a parade of storms bumping into yet another retreating Arctic source / confluence behind PV. In my original long range call, I highlighted Feb 20-22 as perhaps a snowstorm chance that would close out our current cold period. But as we got closer, I started to get interested in the days just before the 20th. I think I would rather have the first one do it, for the sake of awesomeness, but could easily see it waiting until next week. My confidence is not as great as it was with Feb 5-10, mainly due to the analog / time of year issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah, I mean of course it does. But there are some Euro ENS members that are big hits. As I tweeted this morning, if I had to make a deterministic forecast, I'd still side on "no snow," but I think there is a much bigger chance that you would otherwise think from just looking at the op models. You have to respect not only the amazing cold air source / trough but that ridiculous jet stream coming through the Southeast. If a southern wave suddenly got convective, things could easily change for the weekend. This could be a scraping blizzard for many coastal areas just as easily as a fish storm. I wish the waves weren't so large, globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The model mayhem period is just about over. Relatedly, the energy mets can go back to comfortably locking in the D11-15 Euro ensemble temperature anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Either way, this sets up next week with a parade of storms bumping into yet another retreating Arctic source / confluence behind PV. In my original long range call, I highlighted Feb 20-22 as perhaps a snowstorm chance that would close out our current cold period. But as we got closer, I started to get interested in the days just before the 20th. I think I would rather have the first one do it, for the sake of awesomeness, but could easily see it waiting until next week. My confidence is not as great as it was with Feb 5-10, mainly due to the analog / time of year issues. That last transition period 8-10 days from now (that looks like a cutter on guidance at the moment) is going to be our last chance for winter for a while, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Relatedly, the energy mets can go back to comfortably locking in the D11-15 Euro ensemble temperature anomalies lol...yep. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. I suppose if you were in the energy sector, you could hire a college student to read the euro ensembles for you. That last transition period 8-10 days from now (that looks like a cutter on guidance at the moment) is going to be our last chance for winter for a while, imo. Yes, agreed. Unfortunately, the next period of cold is coming when no one here wants it... Oh and that cutter track is bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Oh and that cutter track is bogus. Especially if the weekend system goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Especially if the weekend system goes OTS Right..right. I would rather see a cold, awesome phasing event that bombs out 1 week after a historic blizzard. But, either one is fine with me. Throw tomorrow's event into the mix and suddenly you've got yourself a nice wintry period here. Our friends in the Southeast, coastal Mid Atlantic and Southeast New England may get lucky either way as far as this weekend goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sometimes Allan's composites are pretty awesome: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/FebruaryPhase3500mb.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol...yep. Back to your regularly scheduled programming. I suppose if you were in the energy sector, you could hire a college student to read the euro ensembles for you. Yes, agreed. Unfortunately, the next period of cold is coming when no one here wants it... Oh and that cutter track is bogus. Would that be May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Would that be May? Well I was referring to the days around the beginning of spring. Let me say this: the AO doesn't look anything like last year and it is quite possible we have a -PNA/AO/NAO as we move into March (the recovering upper stratospheric vortex isn't as fast as last year). This could set up a snowy pattern for the Plains-Lakes-New England, especially if the NAO remains neutral/negative. I'm still leaning against a wall-to-wall blowtorch like 2012, but the WPO signal is certainly threatening one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 The model mayhem period is just about over. However, there still is a giant, El Niño-like, east Pacific subtropical anticyclone. This coupled with the IO forcing has set up a sort of 93'-like forcing pattern, despite what the SST say. The only trouble is that we are in mid-Feb, not mid-Mar when something like this can lead to a powerful phaser that affects the eastern CONUS. With the transient nature to the PNA ridge, wintertime wavelengths can push our beautiful trough right out to sea before it amplifies; while in mid-March, the wavelengths would be short enough to pull it off. Either way, this sets up next week with a parade of storms bumping into yet another retreating Arctic source / confluence behind PV. In my original long range call, I highlighted Feb 20-22 as perhaps a snowstorm chance that would close out our current cold period. But as we got closer, I started to get interested in the days just before the 20th. I think I would rather have the first one do it, for the sake of awesomeness, but could easily see it waiting until next week. My confidence is not as great as it was with Feb 5-10, mainly due to the analog / time of year issues. Next week looks good to as you stated. Still several opportunities even if this weekend doesn't before february closes out and Morch begins. What is driving the warmer pattern? The Mjo looks like a solid wave starting at phase 2-3 which should help keep cool to normal conditions till march or the first week. Once it goes to phase 4 though looks like torch is commeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Next week looks good to as you stated. Still several opportunities even if this weekend doesn't before february closes out and Morch begins. What is driving the warmer patter? The Mjo looks like a solid wave starting at phase 2-3 which should help keep cool to normal conditions till march or the first week. Once it goes to phase 4 though looks like torch is commeth. You've only got about 10 days or so until P4 cometh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 You've only got about 10 days or so until P4 cometh Isn't there a lag in mjo responses? The roundy diagram looks like last week in february first week in MOrch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Isn't there a lag in mjo responses? The roundy diagram looks like last week in february first week in MOrch. Nope. P4 is P4. It gets there in around 10 days. Deterministic models actually do pretty good once the MJO comes out in the IO. It's the whole 6-7-8-1-2 transition they have trouble with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nope. P4 is P4. It gets there in around 10 days. Deterministic models actually do pretty good once the MJO comes out in the IO. It's the whole 6-7-8-1-2 transition they have trouble with. Ahh i see, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z gfs squashes everything. Kind of a waste of a good trough. Def looks like the coldest shot of air, until next winter. Energy mets going to look great Sunday night, when all of fl has freeze warnings lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well I have to tip my hat to Adam and HM. I thought all was lost. This February pattern seems to want to produce. Hopefully we can squeeze one more threat out of that magic hat next week. Keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 As we get closer, assuming the out to sea track is correct, we will have to watch for the possibility of a norlun and NW-flow type snow squalls. Yes, I know this like so whatever compared to what "could have been" but it may become interesting with the negative tilt and offshore bombing low. Oh and thanks allsnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM cuts the weekend storm, NOGAPS blows it up boxing day style Would like the euro to start showing some more amplification.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z GEFS came well east and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z GEFS came well east and OTS At least we have the NOGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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