Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big hit on the 12Z GFS for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big hit on the 12Z GFS for the area. Two nice GFS runs in a row for our region with a weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Partial triple phase with the PV on the 12z GFS. gets rid of that rogue pV from the 6z (that i had circled in red) and just goes "hey, lets just do this instead"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Two nice GFS runs in a row for our region with a weekend storm. Weekend rule in effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Quite a GFS run. Next threat forming in SW day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Weekend rule in effect? I think it's the President's Day Weekend rule. We're due for another one, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Quite a GFS run. Next threat forming in SW day 7. That's the biggie, watch that s/w. Lets see how badly the GFS screws it up....it's setting up a -NAO, +PNA, and a 50/50 again for the Feb 20-23 system pre truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its gonna cut on the GFS.... who cares, lets focus on vday and pday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, I've been quietly advertising for some time now (and HM had it before me) that the V-day storm/near miss would set the stage properly for another chance at KU for President's Day Weekend. The downside is that I think that this will be the case of winter going out with a bang. I think spring follows shortly afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, I've been quietly advertising for some time now (and HM had it before me) that the V-day storm/near miss would set the stage properly for another chance at KU for President's Day Weekend. The downside is that I think that this will be the case of winter going out with a bang. I think spring follows shortly afterwards. sorry i could not read the fine print Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, I've been quietly advertising for some time now (and HM had it before me) that the V-day storm/near miss would set the stage properly for another chance at KU for President's Day Weekend. The downside is that I think that this will be the case of winter going out with a bang. I think spring follows shortly afterwards. But...you did advertise it....instead of PD3...."Adam Apocalypse" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKIE is very nice... too bad we can't see 132... 120 is a 1000 mb L off of HSE 144 is a 979 mb L near BOS or just SE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, I've been quietly advertising for some time now (and HM had it before me) that the V-day storm/near miss would set the stage properly for another chance at KU for President's Day Weekend. The downside is that I think that this will be the case of winter going out with a bang. I think spring follows shortly afterwards. nice call between you and HM. Pretty amazing stuff you guys do. ( pointing out potential**) Remember when i said the GFS hasnt been bullish in long range fantasy storms? lol, thats changed the kast 2 weeks. (12z GFS was rediculously weenish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CMC did take the president's day storm and cut it inland. Think it's more of a getting storm on the models now, details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Good point Mitchell. here's the UKIE fwiw: models really starting to come around to a storm idea this time frame after losing it for a few days. Encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, I've been quietly advertising for some time now (and HM had it before me) that the V-day storm/near miss would set the stage properly for another chance at KU for President's Day Weekend. The downside is that I think that this will be the case of winter going out with a bang. I think spring follows shortly afterwards. Yeah awesome job by you guys for fishing out the pattern around the 20th. Forget about the KU chatter (which is now extremely evident on the background pattern leading up to this weekend), but handling the at times muddled MJO/AAM signal and what it would argue for in the timeframe versus some of the less bullish guidance in recent weeks... If you showed me the hemispheric pattern leading into our recent blizzard compared to the pattern being predicted for this weekend, I would argue that this weekend looks light years better for a possible big snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, the 12z JMA goes with the late bloomer idea for PDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, the 12z JMA goes with the late bloomer idea for PDAY. Is the JMA ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While the 18z GFS trough/shortwave look incredible at 129 hrs, the kicker out west isn't allowing it to close off and kicks it east. If it wasn't for the kicker the 18z gfs would show a HISTORIC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i'd be worried about this lil guy over the lakes between the 2 "events" kicking the baroclinic zone offshore. I dunno though... Maybe HM or Adam can chime in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i'd be worried about this lil guy over the lakes between the 2 "events" kicking the baroclinic zone offshore. I dunno though... Maybe HM or Adam can chime in... IMO irish that actually would be beneficial is a it reinforces the cold...As long as the two waves are separated enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 500mb pattern says the surface low should be 50/75 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is the JMA ever right? The JMA had its 15 minutes of fame in Feb 2006 calling for that storm 5 days in advance when nobody else did. Since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is the JMA ever right? Imho, these are the only models you should look at first tier: euro, gfs and their ensembles 2nd tier: ggem and ukie inside 48 hrs turn to the sref, euro, and gfs inside 12hrs nam, sref, euro the jma,cras,kma,nogaps,dgex look at when you have had a couple drinks in you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pros might be able to help answer my question. In storms like this can heavy rates (high VVs) overcome slightly warm boundary layers. For instance 18z GFS is fairly warm at the start, 850s below freezing, yet the 2m 32deg line is a good bit north of city. Do you forecast strictly off the 32deg line or does heavy precip come into play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pros might be able to help answer my question. In storms like this can heavy rates (high VVs) overcome slightly warm boundary layers. For instance 18z GFS is fairly warm at the start, 850s below freezing, yet the 2m 32deg line is a good bit north of city. Do you forecast strictly off the 32deg line or does heavy precip come into play? Soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is probably 32/32 with snow. Not too many sticking issues except on surfaces which warmed. This is probably 33/32. Sticking snow at night or at a decent rate during the day, but low ratio. This is probably 34/33. Snow but very difficult to stick. Heavy bursts will, lighter amounts will struggle and very light will probably mix with rain. Its kinda subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pros might be able to help answer my question. In storms like this can heavy rates (high VVs) overcome slightly warm boundary layers. For instance 18z GFS is fairly warm at the start, 850s below freezing, yet the 2m 32deg line is a good bit north of city. Do you forecast strictly off the 32deg line or does heavy precip come into play? I like wbz sfc temps as a better indicator than sfc temp. While the models have become better with these features, I wouldn't place them at the head of the class. This latest version of the nam loves to go isothermal with the soundings at 0C and drops the temp/wet bulbs instantly to 32F. While this can be the case, it becomes a self fulfilling prophesy because of its wet qpf bias. That being said moderate rates (pcpn amts >/= 0.1 in/hr) can compensate. On Friday night, we were accumulating at 34. It helps too that the heaviest is timed in the evening. I know moderate or greater rates laugh at Feb sun angles, but it never hurts to have it fall at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GEFS hour 132: Would love to see the individuals, i'm sure they're some bombs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Huge signal from the GEFS. Do the philly mets like this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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