iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 020913-MODEL1.jpg Pretty easy to see why the GFS is showing snow and the Euro is not. GFS is sharper with the northern trough and is more robust. Euro is flatter with the northern trough, less robust although compared to the 12z run it is a much closer look to the GFS last than it was 12 hours ago. Absolutely on point. 06z GFS backed down a bit on intensity looking more like the 00z Euro. There likely will be many more shifts as minor initial differences can have a large impact downstream in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Which storm is everyone talking about? The VD storm or the weekend storm? To my untrained eye, the 6z looked like it had a big storm for the weekend, but with some p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Which storm is everyone talking about? The VD storm or the weekend storm? To my untrained eye, the 6z looked like it had a big storm for the weekend, but with some p-type issues. valentines day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 it's all going to come down to how much interaction with the northern stream occurs. Less interaction a more euro like solution...More interaction a gfs like solution at 0z. Also, you are going to need that strengthening storm. A weak storm with lgt precip probably won't overcome the bl issues in the philly area and south. Actually i take that back. 6z gfs looked goood. SV maps has 2-4 around philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BTW, 6z GFS looks an awful lot like the 0z Euro at 500 mb. The result is a less robust storm...still produces some rain and snow but it's more of a slopfest than a thump. The 06z GFS has backed off on the VD storm from the 00z run for the last 3 nights. For some reason the off-hour GFS runs for this storm are not as robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Which storm is everyone talking about? The VD storm or the weekend storm? To my untrained eye, the 6z looked like it had a big storm for the weekend, but with some p-type issues. That weekend storm on the 06z gfs is quite a bomb. Shows the potential - need the right combination of storm impulses to set it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That weekend storm on the 06z gfs is quite a bomb. Shows the potential - need the right combination of storm impulses to set it off. Yes it does. BTW, did anyone see hour 240? It's in fantasy land, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it's all going to come down to how much interaction with the northern stream occurs. Less interaction a more euro like solution...More interaction a gfs like solution at 0z. Also, you are going to need that strengthening storm. A weak storm with lgt precip probably won't overcome the bl issues in the philly area and south. Actually i take that back. 6z gfs looked goood. SV maps has 2-4 around philly. Clown map only has 0-1" for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nice improvement on Euro ens for the VD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Clown map only has 0-1" for the entire area. that is probably more realistic. SV has a blob from phl to like ttn and immediate areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 valentines day storm Time to make a desperate thread for the Vday storm? Where's Mitchell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Time to make a desperate thread for the Vday storm? Where's Mitchell? I'd say wait till after 12z runs. see how they trend. I want him to call it the gaines bomber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^^ I thought I was TM'd for the "GAINESTORM"??!! Lol no big deal. I was concerned that that gfs could Trend back towards the euro. Would be a"middle ground". Also, that storm 120-160 on the 6z gfs is just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm here. I want to see the 12z runs before doing it. Trends went well last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If the big dog "woofs", perhaps it could be Gainesburgers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 jeez, i just looked at the 0z gfs run for vday storm. Looked like it was ran out of adam's living room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We really need some good model runs today otherwise its time to ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm here. I want to see the 12z runs before doing it. Trends went well last night. You have high standards. We've started storm threads with a lot less support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 SREF mean is around 3 inches. However highs Wednesday in the low 40's on most guidance. Going to need moderate precipitation to change to snow and accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You have high standards. We've started storm threads with a lot less support Just dotting the I's and crossing the T's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We really need some good model runs today otherwise its time to ..... ...drop back and run around in the end zone for a while before taking a safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We really need some good model runs today otherwise its time to ..... Too much of a thread-the-needle, not alot of wiggle room. If itcomes North we deal with the WAA, or we get skirted to our South. We really need interaction with that Northern jet. Remember what happened with the last system....models progged early interaction and we didn't get it. Not saying it wont happen, but the last system teased us with the interaction. My first guess (TM?) is a slider just to our South with light non-accumulating snow/mix here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Fwiw, the CRAS was in a decent spot last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I started a seperate entry for the V-day system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 They are already barking about a weekend storm on cable news today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 They are already barking about a weekend storm on cable news today. 12Z models rolling in, lets see what they say for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12Z GFS has a gorgeous +PNA ridge setting up just ahead of our weekend system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's the 6z GFS and it's possible triple phaser: 1st frame, 2 vorts phasing in... 2nd frame.... -NAO devloping with a nice 50-50 low. Watch the area circled in red, another potent vort dropping over top of the ridge. 3rd frame: that back side VOrt is dropping in wicked hawdcowe.(red area) 1st phase system is already going neutral tilt. Nice blocking in the ATlantic, which is what you would need to slow everything up. 4th frame: back side vort(red area) phasing in to the already potent lead wave, BOOM goes the dynamite. Not a forecast, just strictly breaking down what i'm seeing on the 6z GFS. i'm assuming this would be a triple phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's the 6z GFS and it's possible triple phaser: 1st frame, 2 vorts phasing in... 2nd frame.... -NAO devloping with a nice 50-50 low. Watch the area circled in red, another potent vort dropping over top of the ridge. 3rd frame: that back side VOrt is dropping in wicked hawdcowe.(red area) 1st phase system is already going neutral tilt. Nice blocking in the ATlantic, which is what you would need to slow everything up. 4th frame: back side vort(red area) phasing in to the already potent lead wave, BOOM goes the dynamite. Not a forecast, just strictly breaking down what i'm seeing on the 6z GFS. i'm assuming this would be a triple phase? it's hard to tell since you have to turn your whole body to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it's hard to tell since you have to turn your whole body to see.Lol. Edit: Actually isnt THAT far off, just later with the phasing. Timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.